Geos Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Looks like a under achieving day here for a change. Only 67° at 12:30pm here. 12z GFS does paint some rain for Friday, across the region, but mostly below 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Try this http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly ly/2012_annual_summary.html Thanks. I found that earlier but didn't realize you could click on the state names in that one list to get a zoomed in picture I was checking to see if Oakland county had gotten any severe weather reports yet because I recalled that in May they hadn't gotten any yet, and sure enough Oakland county is still blank save for one wind report on the southern border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 June 2012 is currently the 11th warmest on record for Chicago, through the 24th. Obivously the the average will come down a bit the next two days, but will come back up in the final 3 days of the month. Based on the current LOT forecast, the final average would be around 74.2, which would tie it for 5th warmest on record. 1. 76.2 - 1933 2. 75.8 - 1971 3. 75.7 - 1954 4. 74.3 - 1952 5. 74.2 - 2005 6. 74.0 - 1949 7. 73.9 - 1956 8. 73.8 - 1921 9. 73.6 - 1953 10. 73.4 - 1963 11. 73.3 - 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 the euro tries to keep the front minimally active across the area in the med range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Going to be pulling for the cold front to deliver thurs night...forcing/shear looks terrible but instability will be ample...hopefully something can get take advantage. just mentioned this in the heat thread as to see if/any clouds do to max heating potential if storms were to go a bit earlier or even at all for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 just mentioned this in the heat thread as to see if/any clouds do to max heating potential if storms were to go a bit earlier or even at all for that matter. Thurs is looking locked and loaded for upper 90s IMO...I think Friday stands a much better shot at debris issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 If the Euro verifies verbatim, it will still be pretty hot from Wednesday and beyond in Wisconsin unless you are up near the UP. Holiday week starting next sat looks most perfect if I was coming up from down south to a cottage on a lake, MN/WI/MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Thurs is looking locked and loaded for upper 90s IMO...I think Friday stands a much better shot at debris issues 12z EURO drops the front in here about 1pm on Thursday, not sure how hot it will get here. Friday looks like a lot of clouds and a onshore flow now. EURO is showing some thunderstorms on a NW flow this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 12z EURO drops the front in here about 1pm on Thursday, not sure how hot it will get here. Friday looks like a lot of clouds and a onshore flow now. EURO is showing some thunderstorms on a NW flow this coming weekend. The cold front won't be packing much of a punch...upper 90s looks like the min for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The cold front won't be packing much of a punch...upper 90s looks like the min for thursday MKX talking about knocking down there highs for Thursday because of the front. Has them 100-103° west of I-94! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Only up to 71 here. Obviously a stark contrast to what's to come.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 18z NAM breaking out a solid cluster of thunderstorms in northern IL after 0z Thursday evening in a highly unstable environment. Easy to see in both H7 and UVV progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 18z NAM breaking out a solid cluster of thunderstorms in northern IL after 0z Thursday evening in a highly unstable environment. Easy to see in both H7 and UVV progs. Temps aloft do cool later in the run but it's still gonna take a big effort to get anything substantial going imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 can't remember the last time I've seen 850 dews approaching 22 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Perfect day today. 83 for a high with dews in the 40s all afternoon. Don't see that very often in late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Supposedly there was a pretty big grass fire just off I-65 here earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Supposedly there was a pretty big grass fire just off I-65 here earlier. You are correct sir. http://www.jconline.com/article/20120625/NEWS/306250016/Field-fire-scorches-3-acres-closes-interstate?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 IND has Red Flag Warnings for their entire area until 10PM due to 20-25 MPH Gusts, RH around 20% and extremely dry fuels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 24 years ago today...June 25, 1988 ILLINOIS Chicago (ORD): 103º Chicago (MDW): 104º Moline: 104º Peoria: 105º Quincy: 101º Rockford: 101º Springfield: 101º INDIANA Evansville: 101º Fort Wayne: 106º Indianapolis: 102º Lafayette: 105º South Bend: 104º IOWA Burlington: 103º Iowa City: 102º Lamoni: 104º Marshalltown: 101º Ottumwa: 103º KENTUCKY Lexington: 101º Louisville: 101º Paducah: 102º MICHIGAN Ann Arbor: 101º Detroit: 104º Flint: 101º Jackson: 100º MISSOURI Cape Girardeau: 100º Columbia: 102º Kansas City: 102º Kirksville: 102º St. Louis: 101º OHIO Akron: 100º Cleveland: 104º Columbus: 101º Dayton: 102º Findlay: 104º Mansfield: 101º Toledo: 104º WISCONSIN Kenosha: 101º Milwaukee: 100º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Having a hard time reconciling the moisture being shown by the models by late thursday...I'd really like to believe that we'll see some quality moisture pooling along the front as it becomes semi stationary but season trends and dry surface lend no confidence whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Really nice today - feels like September! High of only 71°, Sunny with just a few small clouds early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Perfect day today. A bit breezy with lower humidity. Shot 75 (golf) to boot, not bad for me after not playing for 3 weeks. Dewpoints have been on a wild ride at LAF today. To be expected with its kookiness I suppose. 2AM: 63 4AM: 58 7AM: 60 10AM: 55 12PM: 41 1PM: 33 3PM: 28 4PM: 31 5PM: 36 7PM: 36 8PM: 51 9PM: 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Having a hard time reconciling the moisture being shown by the models by late thursday...I'd really like to believe that we'll see some quality moisture pooling along the front as it becomes semi stationary but season trends and dry surface lend no confidence whatsoever. Your gut is on to something, in my opinion. I don't doubt that there will be some moisture pooling along the front, but, as always, it'll all be relative. I can't buy into a solution that has 70+ dews at the surface or 2"+ precipitable-water values. The ground is dry, vegetation is becoming parched and not transpiring, and Gulf-source moisture will be absent: where is the moisture supposed to come from? Besides, we've seen this before this season -- especially from the GFS -- only to be disappointed upon verification. Even if sufficient moisture were present through the column, temperatures aloft are progged to be quite warm. That implies considerable convective inhibition (i.e., a cap) to be overcome. One then might say -- "well, we have a cold front." That's an awfully weak front progged, meaning an anemic source of lift. From an ingredients perspective, it certainly does not look good for widespread convection and rain. Overall, the idea of rain during that period is something to keep in the back of the mind. That said, I'm saving my excitement for something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I've been saving my excitement for something else since mid 2011...getting desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Skilling saying a 40% chance of storms later Thursday into Friday for the lower lakes, severe not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Skilling saying a 40% chance of storms later Thursday into Friday for the lower lakes, severe not out of the question. His statements regarding rain chances in that time frame have perturbed me a little. He seems to be leaning pretty heavily on the GFS, at least in his on-air presentation. The problem with the GFS is, cooler, moister (and more precip) is right in line with one of its noted biases, as has been clear a few times already this season. Not only that, it's somewhat out of line with other guidance. We'll see. That said, he's certainly right, subsuming the moisture field suggested by the GFS (another issue given the lack of Gulf moisture and the drought), that storms would develop and be explosive IF (key word, there) the cap can be broken. I'll be the first to give him (and the GFS) credit if rain verifies in that manner (sizable and at least somewhat widespread) on Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Again low confidence but there isn't much else to talk about other than the 100 or 103 debate...latest NAM looks pretty good multiple MCS chances for the area. GFS also keeps the semi stationary front active...thurs night is probably the longest shot but the longer we can keep the front hanging around the more i'll start buying into some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 His statements regarding rain chances in that time frame have perturbed me a little. He seems to be leaning pretty heavily on the GFS, at least in his on-air presentation. The problem with the GFS is, cooler, moister (and more precip) is right in line with one of its noted biases, as has been clear a few times already this season. Not only that, it's somewhat out of line with other guidance. We'll see. That said, he's certainly right, subsuming the moisture field suggested by the GFS (another issue given the lack of Gulf moisture and the drought), that storms would develop and be explosive IF (key word, there) the cap can be broken. I'll be the first to give him (and the GFS) credit if rain verifies in that manner (sizable and at least somewhat widespread) on Thursday night. Area mets concur with you and Alek concerning issues with the GFS. It has blown it with the last several troughs/fronts in regard to moisture. My gut is that we'll see 1 or 2 renegade t-storms pop the cap...probably right over Lake Michigan IND: OP GFS AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY CONTINUES TO BE A COOL OUTLIER COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE MODEL CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE POOR MIXING HEIGHTS BELOW 2KFT WHICH LOOKS TO BE COMPLETELY UNREALISTIC. THE OP GFS IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDOING DEWPOINTS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN A TYPICAL OHIO VALLEY SUMMER...THESE NUMBERS MIGHT NOT BE TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE REGION AIDED BY A PERSISTENT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE LAST 4-6 WEEKS...SOME MODELS LED BY THE OP GFS ARE INCREASINGLY STRUGGLING WITH DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 DP struggles aside, i've been watching this period as the boundary has been modeled as flattening out for some time now and this is my favorite type of weather to follow/track so I appreciate this weenie excerpt from DVN. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP BECOMES FAVORABLEFOR NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY DERECHOS. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE THE WEST TO EAST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...HIGH THETAE AIRMASS WITH CAPES POSSIBLY IN THE RANGE OF 3000 TO 4000 OR GREATER J/KG...AND LOCATION ALONG THE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT IN THE WESTERLIES AT 500 AND 300 MB. CONDITIONS LOOK MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL MCS ACTIVITY THU NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL ADDRESS THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. FOR NOW...THIS SETUP WILL REQUIRE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS...THAT MAY BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THESE MESOSCALE EVENTS. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF LINGERING SYSTEMS DURING MAINLY THE MORNING HOURS MAY SUPPRESS WARMING SOME...AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP A RANGE OF ROUGHLY LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 70S FOR LOWS. MONDAY IS KEPT DRY...BUT STILL LIKELY VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID. THE LATEST GFS AND ECM WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT. EDIT: added SPC text / HPC graphic ...CNTRL PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES... A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES ON THURSDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY.. AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/FRI FROM OMAHA EWD TO CHICAGO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 35 TO 45 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. IN SPITE OF THE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...MID-LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12C. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL PROBABLY KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED JUSTIFYING A 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 A bit chilly here this morning with lows in the upper 40s... probably the last time we'll see that for a while. I really don't care for feeling a chill when I walk outside in the morning. 60s is much more comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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