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June 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Been variably cloudy this afternoon. Came off a low of 60° this morning, now at 84.5°. Back door front supposed to swing through here at about 3pm.

85 °F in Madison and probably gonna get much warmer at this rate. Can't wait for the back door front and cool temps the next couple mornings.

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85 °F in Madison and probably gonna get much warmer at this rate. Can't wait for the back door front and cool temps the next couple mornings.

MKX talking about the front and isolated storms firing off pretty soon. At least they're supposed to!

000

FXUS63 KMKX 241636 AAA

AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

1136 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS

NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH LEADING EDGE OF WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF

THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS

RESPONSE LIES WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THIS SHOULD SHIFT

SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z.

HRRR MODEL INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BY 18Z...THEN

SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER 21Z. THIS WAS

BEST MODEL WITH INITIAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.

SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY PRODUCTS SHOWING JUST A FEW CELLS

DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING IN ON ANY

PRECIPITATION...AS UPWARD MOTION HAS TO GO THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO

REACH THE ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO 800 J/KG PER AREA FORECAST

SOUNDINGS. STILL...ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP 20 TO 30 POPS GOING

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS MOST INLAND

AREAS...AS CLOUD DECK SCATTERS OUT. WILL RAISE HIGHS SOMEWHAT NEAR

THE LAKE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER

21Z...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES

QUITE A BIT IN THIS AREA.

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IMO it's still a bit too early for comparisons to 1988 as far as drought impact in the Midwest...but May-June 2012 has actually been a lot warmer than May-June 1988 at ORD. This was surprising to me. 1988 was much drier, though. Of course these are only numbers at one particular location...so it may not really tell the whole story over the larger geographical area.

With that said, here are the numbers...

ORD

May-June 1988

Mean High: 79.7

Mean Low: 52.8

Mean Temp: 66.3

Total Precip: 2.25"

90-degree days: 16

May-June 2012*

Mean High: 81.0

Mean Low: 59.0

Mean Temp: 70.0

Total Precip: 4.82" (much of this was in May; June 2012 will probably end up drier than June 1988, if not much rain falls tonight)

90-degree days: 17

* June 25-30 is based on current NWS forecast

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June 1988: 0.36"

June 2012: 0.05"

Next up is the driest month on record. Here's the top 10:

March 1910: 0.07"

November 1904: 0.11"

November 1917: 0.12"

October 1963: 0.17"

February 1907: 0.18"

October: 1934: 0.19"

February 1935: 0.20"

January 1944: 0.21"

October 1908: 0.23"

September 1963: 0.24"

Looks IND has one last chance (Friday night/Saturday) to avoid breaking both the June and all time driest month on record. Can't say I like their chances.

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Gotta a nice heavy T shower here. Nickle and dime.

Hearing crappy rumbles of thunder here.

Hopefully it doesn't fizzle out and I can finally get a decent donwpour myself.

The high today was 87*F.

Actually, just got a pretty decent crack of thunder.

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Everything occurred just to my north, south, and east today. What can you do. I'd venture to say that this severe weather season may end up even quieter than 2009, and I didn't think a quieter season than 2009 was possible. The March 15th Dexter EF-3 certainly looks like the mother of all aberrations at this point in time.

I will, however, gladly take the quiet weather tomorrow. Should be a perfect night for the Detroit fireworks, which I'm driving down to see. Looking forward to that.

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Maxed at 89 here today, definitely an over performer. Really something considering the environment moving in later this week, us making it almost to 90 today. I think they will need to up their temps for mid week here maybe substantially.

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