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June 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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The rain you got Tuesday wouldn't have been included in this update. They compile data for 2 days and release the update on Thursday morning.

Only 12% of the normal June rainfall has fell here (KUGN).

Good point, forgot about that. Though we got some rain on father's day as well

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I can't wait for the fropa. The past few days have been pretty miserable. I'm hoping for some rain, cells are now popping east and north of FNT and some cells are popping in NE IN which just might get here. But I wouldn't be shocked if there is a dry passage. The other night I was outside when the radar showed us under a decent size area of dark green, and I didn't as much as feel a sprinkle. It all just evaporated on the way down.

Weather radio just went off for a SVR warning for Huron county, but if it's the cell I think it is, it's mostly over Saginaw Bay anyways.

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GFS and euro continue to battle out a multitude of solutions for next week.

One thing is almost certain though. Looks like an eastern trough that brings dry NW and NE flows for the most of us. Temps hang on to normal values until about mon-wed when we all crash.

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Models struggle far worse in the summer than winter with the 500mb pattern, especially after by 5 days and becomes useless by truncation. The winter, you can get a whiff at least.

Indeed it seems.

Can't help but notice the intense heat/ridge advecting in behind the ULL next week. It goes way into Canada and up. Also the lack of cold 850 anomalies in the arctic. Makes you wonder if the guidance is overdoing the "chill". The source region is running a tad warm.

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GRRR! I just made a quick dash into the store for some peppers. It rained really nice... for about 25 seconds, just enough to make me sticky and have to test the wipers. A half mile south and east, it was coming down hard..The pavement had already dried by the time I got back out to the van.

There are still a few random cells popping in front of "the line" and I'm hoping we at least get some rain from them. Best cell out of those got to Coldwater and decided to split off and go due east. A couple more near Jackson, which will likely go through Oakland/Lapeer counties if they make it that far. The "line" itself appears to be pretty unremarkable ATM and will probably follow the protocol of dissolving at the county line or dropping just enough rain to make the grass mad.

At least the temps look to be pleasant behind the fropa... mid to upper 70's sure beats mid to upper 90's!

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It doesn't appear we'll progress past sprinkles here. Points east, north and south will likely get some rain/storms though. AT least I won't have to worry about cutting the lawn for a while yet... it's already been a week since we cut it and it's just stayed dormant.

Looks like my last hope is the heavier rain area from around Lansing to K-zoo will get here without disintegrating.

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Actually, the more I look at the setup around the time of the tropical system, the more I don't like it. Seems like there are 2 likely possibilities: 1) it gets picked up by the east coast trough or 2) it misses that trough and moves westward in the Gulf under the ridge and just keeps barreling west. There would have to be some unlikely thread the needle scenario to affect the OV but it's hard to envision.

12Z Euro brings the bugger into SE Texas.. If a trough from out west would come in on time we'd be in business...

ecmwfNA_850_temp_168.gif

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Yeah, it misses the EC trough on this run. That ridge is going to be a problem though if it builds in as currently shown.

Yep.

Still wayyy out in the extended so just a rough guess/crapshoot at this point as to the players.

Could definitely get picked by the EC trough too.

Still this will be fun to watch unfold regardless of wherever it goes and should provide something weather worthy to track in this long boring stretch we have had...

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