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June 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Hmm... I actually had to turn the heat back on last night. Pretty raw day here with temps struggling to get out of the low 50s.

Rainfall was helpful, but I could use a little more than the 0.68 I got since yesterday afternoon. Lingering instability showers may tally up another tenth or two in the next couple days, but it looks dry after that with Canadian high pressure setting up shop.

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Somewhat interesting setup over Illinois tomorrow afternoon. Little vort max rotating around the upper low could kick of some small rotating storms especially over central Illinois. RAP shows cape values over 1000j/kg over this area. NAM around 750j/kg. RAP may be overdoing it a bit. Low level shear is very weak, but mid-level shear is pretty decent. If we can get instability up around 1000j/kg like the RAP suggests we may have a few small rotating sups over central IL later tomorrow (Saturday afternoon). Sometimes these quirky cold core/high ambient vorticity late spring systems can drop a few surprising weak tornadoes. Not saying that's gonna happen tomorrow, but wouldn't be surprised.

In the Peoria/Springfield area....

RAP_255_2012060203_F18_40.0000N_89.0000W.pngpng

RAP_255_2012060203_F18_40.0000N_89.0000W_HODO.png

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Point and click has a forecasted high of 61º for IND for this Friday. Would be good for a -17º daily max temperature departure. Obviously that's not far away from the 50's. If IND failed to hit 60º on Friday, it would be the first sub 60º max temp in June since 2003 (6/3: 57º). I believe there to be only 17 days that have failed to hit 60º in June throughout recorded history at Indianapolis. Playing along with the same theme, IND had only three min temps below 60º last June.

As for the record low max temp for June 1st for Indianapolis, not gonna happen...but what the heck, here are the three lowest (data back to 1871): 55º in 1889...56º in 1956...60º in 1997 (other 60º readings as well).

Midnight high of 61º FTL.

MAXIMUM 61 1201 AM

Good call by KIND though...nailed it.

-12º daily departure at IND yesterday (-17 for the max and -7 for the min). The last time there was a "cooler" daily departure was a little more than a year ago on May 17, 2011 at -13º (note: January 13, 2012 also had a -12º daily departure).

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RAP continues to show a small pocket of 1000-1250j/kg cape over northern/central Illinois later today. 15z SPC meso analysis shows a few pockets of 500j/kg cape already out over Iowa. Nice little vort max rotating around the parent upper low may make things mildly interesting over parts of Illinois later this afternoon.

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RAP continues to show a small pocket of 1000-1250j/kg cape over northern/central Illinois later today. 15z SPC meso analysis shows a few pockets of 500j/kg cape already out over Iowa. Nice little vort max rotating around the parent upper low may make things mildly interesting over parts of Illinois later this afternoon.

Looks like some towers about to go south of Chicago and in NE IA.

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There's been hints of a return to a warmer pattern as we head into mid-month.

Zonal or flat topped ridge is better for severe weather over Michigan. Seems that pattern just doesn't happen anymore. I'm tired of the massive heat domes that keep all the good stuff off to the north or west followed by digging east coast troughs that usher in dry northwest flow for weeks at a time. It's like there's nothing in between.

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Zonal or flat topped ridge is better for severe weather over Michigan. Seems that pattern just doesn't happen anymore. I'm tired of the massive heat domes that keep all the good stuff off to the north or west followed by digging east coast troughs that usher in dry northwest flow for weeks at a time. It's like there's nothing in between.

2010 was an ideal summer for the majority of us. It featured the firecracker heat and plenty of severe events. A few -NAO based patterns too. Even in the -NAO we got heat and severe. Flat topped ridges and backdoor cool fronts. 2010 was fun.

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A few light showers here this afternoon. The heavier downpours went around us but it was nice to see the sky full of towers again.

Tomorrow is the 152nd anniversary of probably the most powerful tornado to hit the DVN area since settlers moved into to the area.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=camanchetornado

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Mildly impressed...

06/02/2012 0635 PM

2 miles NNE of Highland, Oakland County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50.00 mph, reported by NWS employee.

Numerous small branches down around Duck Lake and White

Lake

06/02/2012 0640 PM

Commerce, Oakland County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e50 mph, reported by trained spotter.

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Wow what a wicked storm that ripped through here. I would say at least 50 mph straight line winds. It was really instense. Nearly knocked me over. My new neighbors must think im a wacko for be out during that storm. They just dont know me yet ;)

Just got a phone call from my dad said NW Shelby TWP massive tree damage all over around the 24-26 mile rds and Mound. Power is out as well.

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2010 was an ideal summer for the majority of us. It featured the firecracker heat and plenty of severe events. A few -NAO based patterns too. Even in the -NAO we got heat and severe. Flat topped ridges and backdoor cool fronts. 2010 was fun.

At least it should be good for working outdoors the next week before the return flow heat kicks back in. The GFS is showing practically a repeat of the latter half of May, which means increasingly hot and dry with rain and storms mostly restricted to the northern plains and upper Mississippi Valley.

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