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June 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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Unlike in the past, ORD has been as warm as or warmer than MDW during all 90+ days this year.

Day...ORD..MDW..

5/19....92......91

5/20....93......92

5/24....90......90

5/27....97......97

5/28....95......94

6/9......90......89

6/10....93......92

6/11....90......90

6/15....94......93

6/16....94......94

6/18....94......92

6/19....95......93

-----------------------

Tot......12......11..

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Unlike in the past, ORD has been as warm as or warmer than MDW during all 90+ days this year.

Day...ORD..MDW..

5/19....92......91

5/20....93......92

5/24....90......90

5/27....97......97

5/28....95......94

6/9......90......89

6/10....93......92

6/11....90......90

6/15....94......93

6/16....94......94

6/18....94......92

6/19....95......93

-----------------------

Tot......12......11..

Interesting how much more 90F+ heat Chicago has had this year than Detroit. Today was DTW's 5th day of 90, though 3 of the 5 were exactly 90F.

Day....DTW

5/25.....90

5/28.....95

6/09.....90

6/10.....90

6/19.....95

I will note however, the yearly average is 17 days of 90F+ for ORD and 12 for DTW.

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Definitely wouldn't classify this current period of warmth as a heat wave in this area. 90-92 degree temps with marginal humidity in mid June is pretty much a non-event. The 98 degree day back in late May will probably be the most impressive max of the whole year. We'd have to top 102-103 sometime this summer to match that level of impressiveness IMO.

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Unlike in the past, ORD has been as warm as or warmer than MDW during all 90+ days this year.

Day...ORD..MDW..

5/19....92......91

5/20....93......92

5/24....90......90

5/27....97......97

5/28....95......94

6/9......90......89

6/10....93......92

6/11....90......90

6/15....94......93

6/16....94......94

6/18....94......92

6/19....95......93

-----------------------

Tot......12......11..

Thanks for running that. I was thinking the same thing but didn't know if it was actually true.

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June precipitation and departures in Indiana (through June 19th)

Bloomington: 0.20" (-2.83")

Evansville: 0.15" (-2.39")

Fort Wayne: 0.06" (-2.71")

Indianapolis: 0.05" (-2.62")

Lafayette: 0.22" (-2.40")

Muncie: 0.69" (-2.29")

Shelbyville: 0.05" (-2.83")

South Bend: 0.49" (-1.98")

Terre Haute: 0.23" (-2.80")

Year to date precipitation and departures in Indiana (thru June 19th)

Bloomington: 11.95" (-10.97")

Evansville: 11.53" (-11.25")

Fort Wayne: 10.41" (-7.16")

Indianapolis: 15.11" (-4.96")

Lafayette: 10.97" (-5.67")

Muncie: 12.93" (-5.62")

Shelbyville: 13.10" (-7.56")

South Bend: 11.79" (-4.40")

Terre Haute: 12.53" (-8.94")

Driest Junes on record

Evansville: 0.38" in 1933

Fort Wayne: 0.28" in 1910

Indianapolis: 0.36" in 1988

South Bend: 0.48" in 1988

I didn't realize how much more precip that areas downstate average compared to us. That is like a 4-5" difference just through the first half of the year.

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00z NAM and GFS try to re-ignite a squall line over head 21-0z Friday.

I think you mean Thursday, and I could see that. Models seem to be slowing down the cold front timing somewhat. Unfortunately, I'll be working Thursday Evening, so I likely won't be able to watch it.

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New SPC day1 is pretty lame for most of us. Now that tornado season is basically done hopefully we can get a nice ridge riding ring of fire type setup to deliver some severe to many of our regions. Deep moisture has been hard to come by in 2012 though, so this derecho season may suck as bad as the rest of the weather has since basically last Fall.

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I didn't realize how much more precip that areas downstate average compared to us. That is like a 4-5" difference just through the first half of the year.

They get off to a wetter start than us at the start of the year. For example, January - March normal precipitation.

LAF: 6.29"

HUF: 8.36" +2.07"

IND: 8.54" +2.25"

BMI: 9.36" +3.07"

EVV: 10.51" +4.22"

Looking at it a little further, everyone but SBN averages more rainfall than us through yesterday. Of course, there is a lot of missing data for LAF in the 1981-10 period (take for instance last year, there was at least 2.00" missing due to LAF crapping out)...so caution is warranted.

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Who knows if Indianapolis sees another drop of rain this June. With that in mind, here are the driest January through June periods in Indy's recorded history (1872 to present).

9.80" - 1895

11.24" - 1934

11.42" - 1966

12.62" - 1925

12.91" - 1931

13.23" - 1987

13.52" - 1941

13.63" - 1915

13.65" - 1872

13.71" - 2001

14.05" - 1988

14.50" - 1954

14.94" - 1936

15.03" - 1911

15.07" - 1896

15.11" - 2012

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What a shocker the 12z GFS is fumbling with the placement of the SLP and ULL mid next week. Run to Run continuity is almost non existent.

Lol. It tries to spin up a interesting feature in the GOM that merges with the ULL coming in from Ontario. That explains this mess partially I guess.

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What a shocker the 12z GFS is fumbling with the placement of the SLP and ULL mid next week. Run to Run continuity is almost non existent.

Lol. It tries to spin up a interesting feature in the GOM that merges with the ULL coming in from Ontario. That explains this mess partially I guess.

The GFS has a small pocket of 850 mb temps of 2C in Michigan on Tuesday morning. That would be pretty nutty for late June.

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Unreal and almost certainly wrong. A fairly big deviation from the past couple of runs.

Some considerable waffling with how deep that trough is. The GFS is so extreme though that it should probably be discounted at this point. Meanwhile, the new Euro has some blistering heat next week...showing temps of 110-115 in MO/AR.

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FWIW 12Z Euro came in with ~6C 850 temps around the same time slot..

Meh. Still think thats overdone for late June. Kind of like what DTX said in their AFD yesterday in regards to climo and the wack model runs of late. Adding an additional 2-4c is where I would place my bet on a final 850.

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Who knows if Indianapolis sees another drop of rain this June. With that in mind, here are the driest January through June periods in Indy's recorded history (1872 to present).

9.80" - 1895

11.24" - 1934

11.42" - 1966

12.62" - 1925

12.91" - 1931

13.23" - 1987

13.52" - 1941

13.63" - 1915

13.65" - 1872

13.71" - 2001

14.05" - 1988

14.50" - 1954

14.94" - 1936

15.03" - 1911

15.07" - 1896

15.11" - 2012

This is the driest start to June and the 3rd driest start to the year for FWA after 1934 and 1931. (0.06" for June and 10.41" for the year) Records go back to 1897.

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