Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

June 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Its neat seeing a heat wave smack dab in the middle of a -NAO. I guess it goes to show that conventional wisdom about the NAO is sometimes not always correct. The teleconnections can be such a pain to forecast by it appears. Even the MJO looks to be a major hassle from time to time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No way, no how do I want to see a dry July! That's not very exciting!

0z EURO showing the same NW flow along with thunderstorms this weekend - includes all of northern IL, NW IN, E IA this run. NE winds down the lake Saturday - 180 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its neat seeing a heat wave smack dab in the middle of a -NAO. I guess it goes to show that conventional wisdom about the NAO is sometimes not always correct. The teleconnections can be such a pain to forecast by it appears. Even the MJO looks to be a major hassle from time to time.

I'm pretty sure that the NAO temperature correlation drops in summer, which would mean that a -NAO at this time of year is not as likely to produce below average temps as compared to winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS = seasonal trends locked and loaded

GFS long runs are flip flopping on the rain amounts for the area. 6z was generous with rain this far south, 12z, not so much.

Skilling knocked a few more degrees off temperatures after Thursday.

Through yesterday at +1.1° for the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow. Both the GFS and Euro are absurd with the Low pressure system for next week. 850s that test the low single digits and a retrograding of the SLP into Ontario. What month is this and who has the lithium to treat this bi-polar weather. Odds of full verification here are slim but entertaining. DTX poked fun at the ECMWF and it's mid 60s for next week. Good on them!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Popping in :) -

Things are horrid here - we desperately need rain. Our region is 10-16" below normal for the year. Farmers are feeling the pain - dry dry dry - warm warm warm. Not a good situation.

The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook provides little hope. We need a tropical system to move up from the Gulf of Mexico and bring our region a soaking rain.

I have heard several people tossing around the 1988 comparison. The 1988 drought was the worst drought I have experienced in this region. The fields turned to a fine baby powder dust. Never seen anything like it before or since.

Last year at this time we were flooded. Now - can't buy rain.

Maps

http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/maps/climate/drought/palmerindex/us.html

http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/maps/climate/outlooks/610day/temperature/us.html

post-77-0-10346800-1340139278_thumb.jpg

post-77-0-12866400-1340139286_thumb.jpg

post-77-0-23675100-1340139291_thumb.jpg

post-77-0-64485800-1340139296_thumb.jpg

post-77-0-53150400-1340139302_thumb.jpg

post-77-0-10052300-1340139308_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It had been looking like the fropa timing would be ideal for eastern Iowa, but the models have been gradually slowing it down. Now it appears the northwest half of Iowa will have the best timing and the storms may be in weakening mode as they move through eastern Iowa. At least we should get something out of it. Locations east of the river may not get much.

A few days ago the timing looked perfect for eastern Iowa. As you said not so anymore.

DVN definitely isn't too excited about it lol....

...IT SURE DOES NOT LOOK

IDEAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND AGAIN MOST OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY

EXPERIENCE A WEAKENING LINE OF FRONTALLY SCOOPED SHOWERS AND STORMS

THE GET SHUNTED BACK POST-FRONTALLY AS THE CAP ERODES FROM WEST-TO-

EAST. ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT PW/S OF 1.2 UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN AN AIRMASS

THAT GETS DRAWN UP PRE-FRONTALLY WED EVENING...BULK OF THE CWA WILL

GET LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

June precipitation and departures in Indiana (through June 19th)

Bloomington: 0.20" (-2.83")

Evansville: 0.15" (-2.39")

Fort Wayne: 0.06" (-2.71")

Indianapolis: 0.05" (-2.62")

Lafayette: 0.22" (-2.40")

Muncie: 0.69" (-2.29")

Shelbyville: 0.05" (-2.83")

South Bend: 0.49" (-1.98")

Terre Haute: 0.23" (-2.80")

Year to date precipitation and departures in Indiana (thru June 19th)

Bloomington: 11.95" (-10.97")

Evansville: 11.53" (-11.25")

Fort Wayne: 10.41" (-7.16")

Indianapolis: 15.11" (-4.96")

Lafayette: 10.97" (-5.67")

Muncie: 12.93" (-5.62")

Shelbyville: 13.10" (-7.56")

South Bend: 11.79" (-4.40")

Terre Haute: 12.53" (-8.94")

Driest Junes on record

Evansville: 0.38" in 1933

Fort Wayne: 0.28" in 1910

Indianapolis: 0.36" in 1988

South Bend: 0.48" in 1988

Link to comment
Share on other sites

**Only** hit 92F here today...not sure what happened, but not the 96F they were advertising...

Going to be a warm nite, but this heat wave is about done...

nevermind

Yeah one more day! Forecast here has been too high consistently since last Friday, except Sunday. Saying 94° tomorrow, probably be more like 92°.

+1.5° for the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...