Ajdos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 If we pull more than a tenth of precip today it will be an accomplishment. Holy heat for Tuesday and Wednesday. Worthy of a wow! I'm really trying to figure out why DTX is downplaying temps for that timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Picked up 0.28" overnight. Put a bit of water in my pond, which was almost dry yesterday. Grass has responded overnight - not totally green, but greener! CPC says trough in the Lakes starting at D6. Would makes sense if the MJO is in Phase 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Picked up 0.28" overnight. Put a bit of water in my pond, which was almost dry yesterday. Grass has responded overnight - not totally green, but greener! CPC says trough in the Lakes starting at D6. Would makes sense if the MJO is in Phase 1 or 2. Meh about MJO phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Interesting discussion regarding MCS predicted to develop in central MN and move towards the east or southeast. Thunderstorms for SE WI, W MI tonight? MKX TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...EDIUM QUIET WEATHER AROUND HERE THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONDITIONS GET VERY UNSETTLED ACROSS MINNESOTA. A STRONG WARM ADVECTION RETURN FLOW KICKS IN TONIGHT. THE CORE OF A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT TO SEE A LARGE MCS DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING...WITH PROPAGATION LIKELY TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS PATTERN SUGGEST A DECENT TURN TOWARD OUR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA AS IT LIKELY EVOLVES INTO LARGE BOWING SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KTS WITH OVER 1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT WHERE THIS STUFF WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP. THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...AS USUAL...ON WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE AND WHERE IT WILL BE TOWARD THE DIURNAL MINIMUM LATE TONIGHT AS IT ROLLS INTO OUR NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS PUT SOME OF THE AREA WEST OF MADISON IN A SLIGHT RISK AND THAT/S REASONABLE. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AT THAT POINT. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BULK OF MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...WITH OVERLAP OF MODELS SUGGESTING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. AFTER THAT...MODELS ALL KEEP THE SFC WARM FRONT NORTH...WITH HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MORNING CONVECTION COULD CERTAINLY WREAK HAVOC ON FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE LAKE IF WINDS END UP BEING ONSHORE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WRK-ARW SUGGESTING A SCENARIO LIKE THIS. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL GO WITH BULK OF MODELS SUGGESTING A HOT AFTERNOON ONCE THE MAJORITY OF CLOUDS MOVE OUT. MODELS INDICATING PRETTY DECENT WINDS MONDAY...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS SHOULD HELP BATTLE THE HEAT...KEEPING DEWPOINTS AND THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 You can say that again...Widespread 100's from the 23-26th and probably beyond. 28C+ at 850mb over the Ohio Valley on the 25th. That is one of the hottest maps I've ever seen. Widespread 100's with some 105F+ readings in the OV. Considerable flip flopping in that range as has been said, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Sprinkles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 That is one of the hottest maps I've ever seen. Widespread 100's with some 105F+ readings in the OV. Considerable flip flopping in that range as has been said, but wow. Forecaster Nield at IND must have been looking ahead at the Euro. His quip from the morning disco: ASIDE FROM WHAT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...90 DEGREE HEAT WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON FOR LENGTHY PERIODS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 We might actually get some light rain...Shocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Dews have crashed from 69 to 54 over the last 2hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Forecaster Nield at IND must have been looking ahead at the Euro. His quip from the morning disco: ASIDE FROM WHAT LOOKS TO BE BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...90 DEGREE HEAT WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON FOR LENGTHY PERIODS. What makes that Euro prog even more stunning is that it's not July. A lot of the classic high-end heat waves have occurred in mid or late July, though there are some exceptions. Wait and see I guess...I remember the Euro trying to pull something like this a couple times in the past couple years only to back off some as it got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 17, 2012 Author Share Posted June 17, 2012 That is one of the hottest maps I've ever seen. Widespread 100's with some 105F+ readings in the OV. Considerable flip flopping in that range as has been said, but wow. Indeed. FWIW...The last few runs of the GFS have come in warmer, though not to the extent of the ECMWF...but still enough for a string of 90+ days for a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 The portion of the line of showers near Metro Airport has grown into t'storms. Hopefully the rest of the line can do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 With all the dry weather we've been having I had to post this. The 6z GFS shows this in the next 16 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Nice ground soaking shower here, been raining for the past hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Didn't get a single drop last night. Incredible with some of the amounts further north. Oh well the grass is fast asleep who knows when it will be woken back up by mother nature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 12z Euro more troughy in the Lakes in the extended. Heat is suppressed farther south next weekend. We'll see if the ridge makes a northward charge later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Getting a heavy downpour right now. No thunder to show for it at this point at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if some wind advisories are needed tomorrow, especially from around Chicago and west/north. Gonna be an interesting day with mid/upper 90's and winds gusting 35-40+ mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Wouldn't be surprised if some wind advisories are needed tomorrow, especially from around Chicago and west/north. Gonna be an interesting day with mid/upper 90's and winds gusting 35-40+ mph. It would mean red flag warnings if not for the rain received in that region. Could see some for Northern IN, which are rare for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Shelf cloud time-lapse from yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Shelf cloud time-lapse from yesterday afternoon. Very cool, I'm jealous. 85 °F and sunny, not humid though, dewpoint has been falling steadily and is down to 47 °F yielding an RH of 27%. Clouds should move in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Shelf cloud time-lapse from yesterday afternoon. Nice! I love those kind of time lapses. Surprised most of the offices didn't issue a wind advisory for tomorrow. Definitely gonna need one over a wide area. DVN going with 15-25mph winds for their area. Many of the models show sustained winds around 25kts, which would be nearly 30mph. They'll definitely be adjusting the forecast upward by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 17, 2012 Share Posted June 17, 2012 Temp. topped at 82.8°, now cooling off into the 70s on a east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 What looks to be a decent (by recent standards) t'storm is going to skirt by just to the north of me. Seems like a SpartyOn special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 A very intense small T-Storm is plowing over my area. Heavy rains and winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I saw Aurora Borealis for the first time in my life today! I did an analysis of all the solar data and everything matches up, this is the real deal folks. Kinda hard to make out in photos but the green tinge is definitely evident. With the naked eye it was fairly spectacularly, for a Floridian at least http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Very cool cell moved right over my area, looked very impressive.. Very heavy rainfall, no thunder. Here is picture I took! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 0.60" of much needed rain at KCLE today. Hopefully the deathridge doesn't set up as has been occasionally slow or this rain will become a long lost memory again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 In addition to the rain earlier this afternoon, one of those micro-cells this evening passed over here. ended up with .53" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Some nasty cells out in W MN this evening... We may get brushed later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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