Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 A very credible forecaster at LOT with whom I am Facebook friends has expressed via a status post his confidence that ORD has a 'decent shot' of hitting 100 at some point(s) next Monday through Thursday. Bill Snyder at WGN agrees. Speaking of LOT, they're losing another met... Shea is taking a position at the Anchorage office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 screw it, bring on the century mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Bill Snyder at WGN agrees. Speaking of LOT, they're losing another met... Shea is taking a position at the Anchorage office. Given that, I'll be interested to see what Tom's official seven-day shows. I might just have to go catch that once I finish this post. Yep, Shea is going up to Anchorage to take a Lead Forecaster position. Now there'll be a Journeyman opening at LOT; there will probably be a few hundred applicants to it, as has become usual for NWS positions. EDIT: Skilling is going 98 Monday through Wednesday (or at least Monday and Tuesday), when he says that an area-wide spread in temperatures might span 96 to 102, and 90 or higher every day, except Friday, when he's going 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 It might be overdoing things, but the St. Louis WRF as of 0z is showing 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and about 40 knots of bulk shear tomorrow in the 21z-0z period. I wonder if SPC will consider extending the current slight risk when they do their new Day 1. If so, I think I will start a thread on the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 That rain must really be raising my dew points... 75F/71F in La Crosse 76F/53F in Milwaukee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 That rain must really be raising my dew points... 75F/71F in La Crosse 76F/53F in Milwaukee Your vegetation is probably doing some transpiring after all that rain! 71°/55° here. Tomorrow is looking like a bust for the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 Short term/hi-res guidance seems to be in good agreement that there will be rain/storm chances with the lead vort during the morning/afternoon and then new development later in the afternoon...continuing during the night. Decent/widespread severe potential appears to be low. Probably the best chance of a widespread rainfall since May 31st. At this point without decent severe potential, i'd rather keep dry and have max heating potential for Mon-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Short term/hi-res guidance seems to be in good agreement that there will be rain/storm chances with the lead vort during the morning/afternoon and then new development later in the afternoon...continuing during the night. Decent/widespread severe potential appears to be low. Probably the best chance of a widespread rainfall since May 31st. At this point without decent severe potential, i'd rather keep dry and have max heating potential for Mon-Wed. Come on, there is something to be said for non-severe convection when it is desperately needed. All joking aside, it would be nice just to get some much needed rain for everyone in the region, so hopefully we get some of that action tomorrow, severe or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Short term/hi-res guidance seems to be in good agreement that there will be rain/storm chances with the lead vort during the morning/afternoon and then new development later in the afternoon...continuing during the night. Decent/widespread severe potential appears to be low. Probably the best chance of a widespread rainfall since May 31st. At this point without decent severe potential, i'd rather keep dry and have max heating potential for Mon-Wed. We really need some rain around here so I'll take whatever we can get at this point. I'm sure we'll have plenty chances in July for some serious hot weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Come on, there is something to be said for non-severe convection when it is desperately needed. All joking aside, it would be nice just to get some much needed rain for everyone in the region, so hopefully we get some of that action tomorrow, severe or not. We really need some rain around here so I'll take whatever we can get at this point. I'm sure we'll have plenty chances in July for some serious hot weather. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Best chance of rain in my forecast is tomorrow evening, 40%. Low, but better than nothing! Not too bad of a night, 68°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2012 Author Share Posted June 16, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 125 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012 ..ONE OF THE SUNNIEST JUNES ON RECORD FOR CHICAGO SO FAR CHICAGO HAS RECEIVED 83 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE THROUGH JUNE 14. NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IS 65 PERCENT. SUNSHINE DATA FOR CHICAGO GOES BACK TO 1894. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 4 JUNES IN CHICAGO HISTORY THAT HAD MORE THAN 80 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. THE MOST RECENT WAS 1988 WHEN 86 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE OCCURRED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...JUNE WILL LIKELY BE THE 9TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH IN CHICAGO WITH BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNSHINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Decent chance for a geomagnetic storm tomorrow night...and of course it comes on what's going to be one of the few cloudy nights in June thus far. Oh well, what can you do. Hopefully we'll at least get some rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Burn bans spreading like wildfire.... Huntington County is also included. I will check today to see why the map didn't update. Even though the forecast is showing a chance of rain tonight through tomorrow night, the disco forecaster at IWX summed it up: PROLONGED PD OF ABOVE NORMAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO MORE THAN NEGATE ANY ANTICIPATED OFFSET FM QUITE ISOLD-WDLY SCT CONVECTION THROUGH ENTIRE FCST CYCLE AND BYND WITH FURTHER EXACERBATION OF DROUGHT CONDS ASSURED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 125 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012 ..ONE OF THE SUNNIEST JUNES ON RECORD FOR CHICAGO SO FAR CHICAGO HAS RECEIVED 83 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE THROUGH JUNE 14. NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE IS 65 PERCENT. SUNSHINE DATA FOR CHICAGO GOES BACK TO 1894. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 4 JUNES IN CHICAGO HISTORY THAT HAD MORE THAN 80 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE. THE MOST RECENT WAS 1988 WHEN 86 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE OCCURRED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...JUNE WILL LIKELY BE THE 9TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH IN CHICAGO WITH BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNSHINE. I love sun. Keep it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Only got down to 70 here this morning. Stark contrast to the 48 the other day. Dews are starting to creep up finally too. Up to 65 currently. So far the rain has missed just to the northwest, although did get a few sprinkles a little bit ago. May get a decent soaking later tonight depending on how the convection evolves out of Missouri/southern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 70F here, but the dew point dropped from 71F back down to 63F...so much more comfortable out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Just had a burst of some very large rain drops from a tiny developing cell that just passed over. Lasted just long enough to get the pavement wet. Didn't amount to squat, but still kind of cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 72/70 at DVN and 73/70 at MLI. Dews still in the upper 50's here but mid 60's not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Rain last evening fell apart again as it moved into east-central Iowa. I only got 0.03". I'm hoping the mcv in eastern Kansas doesn't completely miss this area to the south this evening. Otherwise, Wednesday night looks like the next chance of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Rain last evening fell apart again as it moved into east-central Iowa. I only got 0.03". I'm hoping the mcv in eastern Kansas doesn't completely miss this area to the south this evening. Otherwise, Wednesday night looks like the next chance of rain. Latest 4km NAM shows a nice complex traversing Iowa later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I'm so excited about the prospect of the first appreciable rain in nearly 3 weeks that I don't care if it muddles convective potential for later on. Bring on this small batch of rain to the WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 We can forget any chance of 90*F today. On to Tuesday-Wednesday, where mid-90s are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Some heavy rains here this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Currently 77° and mostly cloudy here. Dewpoint crept up to 64°. Hoping the small batch of rain to the west makes it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Looking at the latest HRRR run, looks to keep the rain out of the northern part of Indiana.. I know still early and can change, but looks like a Monday repeat. Where storms rolled through Ill and then completely died at the IL/IN border. Would love to see some rain today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 84/67 here with nearly full sun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Just had a fast and furious cell dump on me for about 5 minutes. Extremely heavy rain, but way to fast to do much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Few sprinkles and some gusty winds from a cell that just missed me by ~3 miles. Doh! Pullin' for the rain to come tonight. Did cool off to something more comfortable, 77°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Given that, I'll be interested to see what Tom's official seven-day shows. I might just have to go catch that once I finish this post. Yep, Shea is going up to Anchorage to take a Lead Forecaster position. Now there'll be a Journeyman opening at LOT; there will probably be a few hundred applicants to it, as has become usual for NWS positions. EDIT: Skilling is going 98 Monday through Wednesday (or at least Monday and Tuesday), when he says that an area-wide spread in temperatures might span 96 to 102, and 90 or higher every day, except Friday, when he's going 85. I know temps have been overachieving lately but I'm not too optimistic on ORD hitting 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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