Geos Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 euro, gfs, nam all dampen the rain out to almost nothing as it approaches the lake. stun Guess we make it rain with the sprinkler and hope for better things next week. I doubt that's because of the lake though! We need a trough to push the jet stream further south into the region. NAM showing more significant rain streaking east of the Mississippi near the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 12z GFS says get used to the heat. It does have some convection mixed in there though. edit: euro and GFS even suggests 100*F+ potential early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 12z gfs, .75" precip - 16 days. 1988 hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 12z gfs, .75" precip - 16 days. 1988 hello! enjoy your low 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Anyone else feel like they are suffering a slow death from allergies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Just got Radarscope on my iphone 4 for $10, epic storm tracking and dual pol products, and the GPS integration is perfect for chasing. Another warm day but not that bad for mid-summer, 80 °F. Doesn't look like it'll get all that cool the next few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I think 1988 probably had less rain than that. If you were to believe the 12z GFS - DLL and maybe Turtle will cash in on some decent rainfall in the next 72 hours. ...maybe Hawkeye too. Still pleasant outside with some high clouds overhead now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 12z GFS says get used to the heat. It does have some convection mixed in there though. edit: euro and GFS even suggests 100*F+ potential early next week. Better hope there are some superadiabatic low levels. 850 mb temps of 21-22C usually won't cut it in terms of 100F. Looks like a respectable shot of heat in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 As we head deeper into the summer here chances of training MCS and MCV and SLP rain events gets slimmer in a way. July through August seems to be more of a localized type of precipitation. Region wide rain storm chances get better in the fall. But at this point any T-Storm action will be welcomed. I just see the trend and it looks dry. The GFS is struggling with late next week. Its trying to drop a trough with a retrograding ULL to our north which might help things. But its a cluster F88k as of now and chances are that feature will be redux of today. What you're describing applies to the plains states where precipitation peaks in May or June (depending on latitude) and declines by the middle of July. I don't think it's generally true for Michigan though since the low level jet so often sets up too far west for those nocturnal rainmakers to survive all the way east. In Michigan there is a trend towards slightly fewer precip days in the peak of summer, but individual events must be heavier because the total is nearly the same as far as water the bucket goes. In most years the real good soaking synoptic rains are done by the first of June and don't come back until the middle of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Better hope there are some superadiabatic low levels. 850 mb temps of 21-22C usually won't cut it in terms of 100F. Looks like a respectable shot of heat in any case. It looks like an old-fashion Sonoran Heat Release (with the 130kt jet rounding the base of the base of the trough). We had plenty of those in 2011. In this situation, the mixing heights compensates for the marginal temperature profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Nearly all the rain chances and front meandering near the area are gone from the latest Euro. Now it has just a small chance of some scattered rain late Saturday followed by hot and dry through next Thursday. I sure hope a couple other models, as well as the HPC, are correct about a better rain complex making its way through here Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Nearly all the rain chances and front meandering near the area are gone from the latest Euro. Now it has just a small chance of some scattered rain late Saturday followed by hot and dry through next Thursday. I sure hope a couple other models, as well as the HPC, are correct about a better rain complex making its way through here Saturday night. yep...Sat night is really out best shot and then we resume the seasonal cycle of action well west followed by an impotent front passage and brief cool down. wash, rinse, repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 already tired of the 1988 talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Wow, Minnesota with yet another great severe weather setup. Is it just me or are they hogging all the damn severe weather this year lol? It's not just you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 IL has more severe reports than MN so far this year (prelim). Of course that may not always tell the whole story...a big day or two can skew things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Looks like rain was taken out of the forecast for Sunday? String of 90 degree days with no precip..in an already drought stricken area.. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Hayward, WI nearing 2 inches of rain already today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 That reminds me, I haven't heard anything out of torchartie lately. I'm surprised that he hasn't been on here gloating. 12z gfs, .75" precip - 16 days. 1988 hello! Just because it's the most recent notable dry streak/drought in this area/region, a comparison of 1988 and this year (since March 1st) at LAF. Not reading anything into it, just posting the numbers. Numbers in ( ) are number of days with measurable precipitation, 0.01" or greater. March 1988: 2.58" (13) 2012: 1.92" (8) April 1988: 2.46" (9) 2012: 2.29" (7) May 1988: 0.99" (6) 2012: 2.99" (7) June - through 6/13 1988: 0.15" (1) 2012: 0.07" (2) March 1 - June 13 1988: 6.18" (29) 2012: 7.27" (24) The rest of the way (monthly totals) for LAF in 1988, through the end of meteorological summer. At the local level, things got better in July and August...though of course it was smoking hot. June: 0.29" (only two days with measurable precipitation that month) July: 3.53" August: 3.82" I had to open my mouth Seriously though, this summer has anecdotally begun in an eerily similar fashion to '88, at least locally. I'm not sure what the synoptic pattern was like then, but I definitely remember how that summer started, as Tim's stats point out. I know that I half facetiously called the upcoming ridge the heat dome of death, but it is looking more impressive every day. It may not be extreme heat, but it appears to park itself for quite a few days on top of already parched ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 IL has more severe reports than MN so far this year (prelim). Of course that may not always tell the whole story...a big day or two can skew things. Screw severe. I just want a good hard downpour with lots of lightning. I can't even get that this year. Had one good loud thunderstorm this year at my place and it was back in freaking April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 already tired of the 1988 talk The probability of a drought like that in any given year must be very low. I will believe it when I see it. Of course I probably would've said that before the epic March warm spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 The probability of a drought like that in any given year must be very low. I will believe it when I see it. Of course I probably would've said that before the epic March warm spell. It's only fair...I guess we did spend most of the winter talking about whether or not we'd set a new snowfall futility record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 IL has more severe reports than MN so far this year (prelim). Of course that may not always tell the whole story...a big day or two can skew things. Notice the hole in NE Indiana. My deflector shields are operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I guess we should talk about 1988 if we get no rain between now and about 300hrs. The 12z fantasy la la land was the fires of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Interesting...what...40Fs across NDak and 90Fs across MI?? Maybe not that cold...but looks chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Saw it coming but the new LOT disco sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Perhaps the March torch was the "black swan". We should have seen this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 86/35 here. The ol 50+ degree temp/dewpoint spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 86/35 here. The ol 50+ degree temp/dewpoint spread. LAF is the new Vegas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Saw it coming but the new LOT disco sucks They mentioned possible mid-upper 90s next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 LAF is the new Vegas... Third day in a row with a maximum T/Td spread of at least 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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