Geos Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 CPC is advertizing a wetter pattern shaping up next week. Chilly at 48° this morning. Likely will stay below 70° with the onshore wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 CPC is advertizing a wetter pattern shaping up next week. Chilly at 48° this morning. Likely will stay below 70° with the onshore wind. Given the recent GFS runs, it's hard to be surprised. Looks like a frontal boundary is going to hover somewhere in the region, right now looking to set up a bit north and west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 different types of allergies...cool and wet would be bad for some That's true, but some of the more common allergies (in my case ragweed) tend to be worse in warm and dry conditions. Of course, with some molds, cool and wet is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 CPC graphic surprises me...I guess they're thinking a more zonal flow finally materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 That's true, but some of the more common allergies (in my case ragweed) tend to be worse in warm and dry conditions. Of course, with some molds, cool and wet is not good. Ragweed bothers me as well. Warm, wet summer aggravate my allergies the most. Last summer was horrible! Mold bothers me, but it's when it is warm and wet that it bothers me the most. Haven't taken any allergy medicine since Memorial Day. ... Clouding up over Lake County pretty well. Hovering in the mid 60s. MKX wrote a piece on the dry conditions: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=84023&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 CPC is advertizing a wetter pattern shaping up next week. Chilly at 48° this morning. Likely will stay below 70° with the onshore wind. Can't count how many times those maps have failed hard core. Go with the trend. Warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Can't count how many times those maps have failed hard core. Go with the trend. Warm and dry. Wouldn't take more than a series of training thunderstorms for several hours to get us back to normal precipitation for the month! Or a day where a stalled out warm front parks itself in the region. Total overcast now, 64°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 Wouldn't take more than a series of training thunderstorms for several hours to get us back to normal precipitation for the month! Or a day where a stalled out warm front parks itself in the region. Total overcast now, 64°. As we head deeper into the summer here chances of training MCS and MCV and SLP rain events gets slimmer in a way. July through August seems to be more of a localized type of precipitation. Region wide rain storm chances get better in the fall. But at this point any T-Storm action will be welcomed. I just see the trend and it looks dry. The GFS is struggling with late next week. Its trying to drop a trough with a retrograding ULL to our north which might help things. But its a cluster F88k as of now and chances are that feature will be redux of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 12z GFS and Euro both suggest Monday as the day to watch across this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 As we head deeper into the summer here chances of training MCS and MCV and SLP rain events gets slimmer in a way. July through August seems to be more of a localized type of precipitation. Region wide rain storm chances get better in the fall. But at this point any T-Storm action will be welcomed. I just see the trend and it looks dry. The GFS is struggling with late next week. Its trying to drop a trough with a retrograding ULL to our north which might help things. But its a cluster F88k as of now and chances are that feature will be redux of today. O Rly? http://www.americanw...4/page__st__105 http://www.americanw...vy-rain-threat/ http://www.americanw...wet-august-1-3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 loving the refreshing weekday temps and then brief hits of heat on the weekends. The way to run a summer. Nice to at least see the continuation of rain chances on the euro for a lot of us. Lucky fookers to the NW look primed again. won't hold my breath here but at least its looking like some may score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 O Rly? http://www.americanw...4/page__st__105 http://www.americanw...vy-rain-threat/ http://www.americanw...wet-august-1-3/ 2011 was one of the wettest years on record so it doesn't surprise me to see those examples used. Precip chances slim down as we head into the depths of Summer. Sure we get our T-Storms on a localized level. June is usually the wettest month around here with a gradual trend down into Oct before a tick up. June average around here is somewhere around 3 and change. So too not receive even half of that could mess with the yearly totals. We need this rain for the farmers but it looks like it stays dry. Rain dance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 78 after starting at 48. Good chance today was the last time we hit the 40s until September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 13, 2012 Share Posted June 13, 2012 July is the 2nd wettest month of the year in Detroit, and August the 5th wettest (and still on average receives 85% of June's average precipitation), so I really don't think precipitation chances fade as much as one would believe as the summer goes on. In any case, we're still in the heart of June, which is Detroit's wettest month of the year. Obviously this pattern has been lackluster in terms of severe wx and rainfall, but it can always change. For example, in 2007, there were only 3 notable severe wx events in Michigan through the end of June, but July and August of that year turned out to be rather active. I have no idea if the pattern will change for the wetter next week, but it's not unreasonably to believe that that's what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Beautiful day today. LOL at the high/low at DTW though. Their low of 52 was naturally the highest in SE MI (most places well in the 40s) outside of stations on the water, but really thats not unexpected. But what really surprised me, how in the hell did they hit 74 today!? Almost the entire area had highs in the 68-70 range. Its comical really, but what can you say other than heat island & maybe a bit of downsloping. But I dont buy too heavily into the downsloping idea because I have always checked SE MI high/lows rtp tables and it never used to be this crazy this often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 As we head deeper into the summer here chances of training MCS and MCV and SLP rain events gets slimmer in a way. July through August seems to be more of a localized type of precipitation. Region wide rain storm chances get better in the fall. But at this point any T-Storm action will be welcomed. I just see the trend and it looks dry. The GFS is struggling with late next week. Its trying to drop a trough with a retrograding ULL to our north which might help things. But its a cluster F88k as of now and chances are that feature will be redux of today. August is the wettest month for Chicago, with July being the second wettest. A lot of the good training thunderstorm complexes that I can remember for here have been between 4th of July and Labor Day. August 2007 is was non-stop MCS's and training thunderstorms - ended up with 14.00" of rain that month with major river flooding in NE IL! Patterns do eventually break, hopefully this one will soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Beautiful day today. LOL at the high/low at DTW though. Their low of 52 was naturally the highest in SE MI (most places well in the 40s) outside of stations on the water, but really thats not unexpected. But what really surprised me, how in the hell did they hit 74 today!? Almost the entire area had highs in the 68-70 range. Its comical really, but what can you say other than heat island & maybe a bit of downsloping. But I dont buy too heavily into the downsloping idea because I have always checked SE MI high/lows rtp tables and it never used to be this crazy this often. Downsloping is a always a sneaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 2011 was one of the wettest years on record so it doesn't surprise me to see those examples used. Precip chances slim down as we head into the depths of Summer. Sure we get our T-Storms on a localized level. June is usually the wettest month around here with a gradual trend down into Oct before a tick up. June average around here is somewhere around 3 and change. So too not receive even half of that could mess with the yearly totals. We need this rain for the farmers but it looks like it stays dry. Rain dance? no Aug is still > Sept, Oct, Nov, D, J, F, and even April in terms of rain for you.. July is the 2nd wettest month of the year in Detroit, and August the 5th wettest (and still on average receives 85% of June's average precipitation), so I really don't think precipitation chances fade as much as one would believe as the summer goes on. In any case, we're still in the heart of June, which is Detroit's wettest month of the year. Obviously this pattern has been lackluster in terms of severe wx and rainfall, but it can always change. For example, in 2007, there were only 3 notable severe wx events in Michigan through the end of June, but July and August of that year turned out to be rather active. I have no idea if the pattern will change for the wetter next week, but it's not unreasonably to believe that that's what will happen. August is the wettest month for Chicago, with July being the second wettest. A lot of the good training thunderstorm complexes that I can remember for here have been between 4th of July and Labor Day. August 2007 is was non-stop MCS's and training thunderstorms - ended up with 14.00" of rain that month with major river flooding in NE IL! Patterns do eventually break, hopefully this one will soon. Precip for you(DTW) actually stays steady through August/September and then drops off come October and into winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Yes. Actually August is less than September for average precipitation based off that chart you posted. You must be looking at the AVG precip days...? August 3.00 inches Sep 3.26 inches From here out its basically a down hill trend for precip if you want to get technical I guess. Not sure why there is debate? if there is, your chart confirms what was stated. Basically we need the rains of June. If you don't get these Summer rains it can adverse effects on the lakes and streams and a mountain of other issues. Love me some sunny warm days but Im going to be pissed off if the Pine river is so low that Kayaking it is nearly impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I think what we can say about summer precip is that you're much more likely to see large spreads over short distances compared to later in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Evening cool off rate is about the same as last night. Currently 54°/48°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 T. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE AREA MAY BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. DUE TO THIS THE ALL BLEND POPS WERE REDUCED SOME. LOOKING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF. HOWEVER LOOKING WITH A MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MOVING FROM PHASE 6 TO 7...THE ECMWF WOULD BE THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME. La Crosse likes the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 63 °F, feels a little chilly... definitely adapting to summer mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 Skilling went with low-mid 90's from Fri-Wed. Most of that period will obviously depend on trough evolution and associated storm chances/cloud debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 12° difference between here and ORD. Down to 50°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 As we head deeper into the summer here chances of training MCS and MCV and SLP rain events gets slimmer in a way. July through August seems to be more of a localized type of precipitation. Region wide rain storm chances get better in the fall. But at this point any T-Storm action will be welcomed. I just see the trend and it looks dry. The GFS is struggling with late next week. Its trying to drop a trough with a retrograding ULL to our north which might help things. But its a cluster F88k as of now and chances are that feature will be redux of today. Incorrect in many ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Euro flips all of us the finger south of central wisconsin and gives us <.50" the whole run while most to the north and west in MN gets round after round of rain and 3-5" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Euro flips all of us the finger south of central wisconsin and gives us <.50" the whole run while to the north and west in MN gets round after round of rain and 3-5" plus. Alek made mention of this earlier, might best to cut back your expectations a touch. The ridge is going to be hard to dislodge, the only possible wildcard would be if we get unstable enough for pop up thunderstorms in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Alek made mention of this earlier, might best to cut back your expectations a touch. The ridge is going to be hard to dislodge, the only possible wildcard would be if we get unstable enough for pop up thunderstorms in the region. Yup! but very disheartening to see areas in Illinois where the euro was painting a good start to a drought buster go to showing under .25" this run. Hopefully your WC scenario comes back and the euro paints a better picture again at 12z. I'm prepared for the worst but hoping we can pull out at least one friggin' round of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 There is no front lawn anymore. It's a crunchy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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