Ajdos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 ECMWf still continuing to show another round of heat come late next week. Kind of ?? wash? , rinse and repeat pattern. Still dry! Grass is turning brown in many locations. I was in Port Huron today, not going to complain, this weather is perfect for the beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 While the weather is gorgeous, I will admit its very boring. Could use some torrential rains....maybe a swarm of tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 While the weather is gorgeous, I will admit its very boring. Could use some torrential rains....maybe a swarm of tornados. A couple MCS' would be nice. It has been about 10 days since the last rain. About 67° right now. Little more humid - 76%. QPF 1-3 day outlook. Would be nice to get 0.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 After a high of 88F, Duluth plummeted back to 60F once an east wind kicked in... http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDLH.html Free AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Hot day today, up to 87. It's just before 11pm and it's still 76. BTW, 76 is our normal high this time of year. ow for some storms and I'd be happy. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 A couple MCS' would be nice. It has been about 10 days since the last rain. About 67° right now. Little more humid - 76%. QPF 1-3 day outlook. Would be nice to get 0.9". 0z NAM is on a new low, with not even 0.1" QPF with the frontal passage. I really hope it's wrong, but what with the GFS dewpoint overestimation, it might be that it is too bullish. I can deal with cool and dry, but warm and dry this summer would be a poor continuation from the disappointing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 0z NAM is on a new low, with not even 0.1" QPF with the frontal passage. I really hope it's wrong, but what with the GFS dewpoint overestimation, it might be that it is too bullish. I can deal with cool and dry, but warm and dry this summer would be a poor continuation from the disappointing winter. Exactly. This spring has been uneventful this far north in terms of thunderstorms. Currently there is a 50% chance of storms for Monday. Not a bad night out - getting a little air conditioning tonight, 65°/57° currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Exactly. This spring has been uneventful this far north in terms of thunderstorms. Currently there is a 50% chance of storms for Monday. Not a bad night out - getting a little air conditioning tonight, 65°/57° currently. That observation seems sketchy, it's 77F at MKE and 75F at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Violently disagree. I'd probably take 10 PM to 1 AM over 10 AM to 1 PM but I have a difficult time putting it above late afternoon/early evening. I think the best timing is a function of geographic location and time of year. Storms forming right on or just barely ahead of the synoptic cold front is more common in spring. I'd say for the Upper Midwest a lot of the good summer action often occurs well ahead of the synoptic cold front. I also think the effect of loss of heating in the 6 PM to 11 PM time frame is overrated. The sun doesn't set until after 9:00 PM where I am and the low level jet can keep things going strong well after sunset. I suppose if you're looking for supercells and tornadoes, late afternoon to early evening is the peak. If you live where those are exceedingly rare, your severe events are more likely to peak out slightly later on with a monster MCS or bow echo. I mean, the May 31, 1998 derecho arrived at 5:00 AM without losing any punch at all. That was an extreme setup, but it is not uncommon for the best squall line of the summer to roll through here between 9 PM and midnight without losing any punch. I even recall an incident of 3 inch hail occurring at 1:00 AM! In a normal year late-night severe boomers are pretty common. I'd also note that the diurnal minimum for MCS activity is not right at dawn as you would think, but around mid-morning. The heating you get between sunrise and late morning may heat the surface quickly, but the unstable layer created doesn't necessarily have enough depth to affect thunderstorm development right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 That observation seems sketchy, it's 77F at MKE and 75F at ORD. Having a localized lake breeze right now I guess. Several locations in the Waukegan to Kenosha corridor are in the 60s right now. Definitely not in the 70s here. UGN: http://www.weather.g...story/KUGN.html Edit: Actually there is some inland locations cooling off into the 60s now. 63° at BUU. The power of dry air. UHI definitely noticeable tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 I think the best timing is a function of geographic location and time of year. Storms forming right on or just barely ahead of the synoptic cold front is more common in spring. I'd say for the Upper Midwest a lot of the good summer action often occurs well ahead of the synoptic cold front. I also think the effect of loss of heating in the 6 PM to 11 PM time frame is overrated. The sun doesn't set until after 9:00 PM where I am and the low level jet can keep things going strong well after sunset. I suppose if you're looking for supercells and tornadoes, late afternoon to early evening is the peak. If you live where those are exceedingly rare, your severe events are more likely to peak out slightly later on with a monster MCS or bow echo. I mean, the May 31, 1998 derecho arrived at 5:00 AM without losing any punch at all. That was an extreme setup, but it is not uncommon for the best squall line of the summer to roll through here between 9 PM and midnight without losing any punch. I even recall an incident of 3 inch hail occurring at 1:00 AM! In a normal year late-night severe boomers are pretty common. I'd also note that the diurnal minimum for MCS activity is not right at dawn as you would think, but around mid-morning. The heating you get between sunrise and late morning may heat the surface quickly, but the unstable layer created doesn't necessarily have enough depth to affect thunderstorm development right away. Statistics argue that your time frame is one of the worst time frames for severe weather. Sure you can pick out notable events to match any time frame but collectively between 4-10pm will always be the best time of the day to see severe/significant severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 DTW sitting at a -.4 temp departure for the month so far. That wont hold after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 DTW sitting at a -.4 temp departure for the month so far. That wont hold after today. Yeah, but it should go right back down again mid-week. You gotta love Roller Coaster weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 In any event, 12z euro's solution yesterday may even prompt some weenie suicide watches, between the never-ending heat and lack of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Dropped to 69F last night... I see the dew point is up to 61F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 90 here, but thankfully DP's are low enough to keep this from being brutal. Golf courses are pretty quiet right now, can't blame 'em since its exhausting to be out in this heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 87 here now in Saginaw, MI. crossing fingers for some severe stuff on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Up to 85°/57°, with a SSE wind. Little lake breeze trying to push its way inland. Still below normal for the month. NMM showing storms mid-afternoon Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Cool nights are keeping us entrenched well into negative territory for now. Still at -4.5 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 87F/63F here..humidity is creeping up....hot, dry, windy, not a cloud in they sky.... perfect day for AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Lake breeze and cumulus making it more tolerable to be outside today. Currently 83°, was 87°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 10, 2012 Author Share Posted June 10, 2012 ORD was up to 90 as of 1PM, making it the 7th 90+ day on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 gfs SHOWS 39F here weds morning... Don't look at the end of the run...GFS shows the death ride from the bowels of hell building in... Probably a stretch of 90Fs or better... ugh. send rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 12z NMM has some isolated areas picking up decent rain. You're gonna have to get lucky to get under one of those thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 90*F at City Airport, 89*F at Metro Airport. Absolutely no clouds in the sky today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Wow...i need more rain then that. GFS shows just over 1/4 inch falling... hopefully that comes, because after that I don't see much. After all those "wet" years its going to be a change to get some below norm precip years. I've been keeping my bird bath full. Today I took a picture of my babies that have a nest right outside the bedroom window in the arborvitae. I'm putting in a pond some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Went hiking today at Proud Lake. Not a bad day for it at all. Was able to do conditioning drills to prepare myself for the heat of up coming mid summer hikes. Very dry in the woods. Streams are literally running dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 87/60 is not exactly a heat wave, but it's noticeably the warmest day of the weekend. The dewpoint jump of several degrees is the difference today. 12z Euro very promising in the day 6-10 period. It has dropped the extended dry heat of a few days ago and has replaced it with persisent upper midwest troughiness with a front stalled over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Temps underachieved here today. Only hit 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 12z Euro very promising in the day 6-10 period. It has dropped the extended dry heat of a few days ago and has replaced it with persisent upper midwest troughiness with a front stalled over the area. A stalled out front would be the most beneficial feature at this point. Everything else has been too transient or too far north. --- About 82°/58° out here, with a 15 mph wind cutting off the lake. Cumulus are filling the sky overhead and to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.