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June 2012 General Discussion


Chicago Storm

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ECMWf still continuing to show another round of heat come late next week. Kind of ?? wash? , rinse and repeat pattern. Still dry!

Grass is turning brown in many locations. I was in Port Huron today, not going to complain, this weather is perfect for the beach!

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While the weather is gorgeous, I will admit its very boring. Could use some torrential rains....maybe a swarm of tornados.

A couple MCS' would be nice. It has been about 10 days since the last rain.

About 67° right now. Little more humid - 76%.

QPF 1-3 day outlook. Would be nice to get 0.9".

d13_fill.gif

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A couple MCS' would be nice. It has been about 10 days since the last rain.

About 67° right now. Little more humid - 76%.

QPF 1-3 day outlook. Would be nice to get 0.9".

d13_fill.gif

0z NAM is on a new low, with not even 0.1" QPF with the frontal passage. I really hope it's wrong, but what with the GFS dewpoint overestimation, it might be that it is too bullish. I can deal with cool and dry, but warm and dry this summer would be a poor continuation from the disappointing winter.

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0z NAM is on a new low, with not even 0.1" QPF with the frontal passage. I really hope it's wrong, but what with the GFS dewpoint overestimation, it might be that it is too bullish. I can deal with cool and dry, but warm and dry this summer would be a poor continuation from the disappointing winter.

Exactly. This spring has been uneventful this far north in terms of thunderstorms. Currently there is a 50% chance of storms for Monday.

Not a bad night out - getting a little air conditioning tonight, 65°/57° currently.

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Exactly. This spring has been uneventful this far north in terms of thunderstorms. Currently there is a 50% chance of storms for Monday.

Not a bad night out - getting a little air conditioning tonight, 65°/57° currently.

That observation seems sketchy, it's 77F at MKE and 75F at ORD.

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Violently disagree. I'd probably take 10 PM to 1 AM over 10 AM to 1 PM but I have a difficult time putting it above late afternoon/early evening.

I think the best timing is a function of geographic location and time of year. Storms forming right on or just barely ahead of the synoptic cold front is more common in spring. I'd say for the Upper Midwest a lot of the good summer action often occurs well ahead of the synoptic cold front.

I also think the effect of loss of heating in the 6 PM to 11 PM time frame is overrated. The sun doesn't set until after 9:00 PM where I am and the low level jet can keep things going strong well after sunset. I suppose if you're looking for supercells and tornadoes, late afternoon to early evening is the peak. If you live where those are exceedingly rare, your severe events are more likely to peak out slightly later on with a monster MCS or bow echo. I mean, the May 31, 1998 derecho arrived at 5:00 AM without losing any punch at all. That was an extreme setup, but it is not uncommon for the best squall line of the summer to roll through here between 9 PM and midnight without losing any punch. I even recall an incident of 3 inch hail occurring at 1:00 AM! In a normal year late-night severe boomers are pretty common.

I'd also note that the diurnal minimum for MCS activity is not right at dawn as you would think, but around mid-morning. The heating you get between sunrise and late morning may heat the surface quickly, but the unstable layer created doesn't necessarily have enough depth to affect thunderstorm development right away.

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That observation seems sketchy, it's 77F at MKE and 75F at ORD.

Having a localized lake breeze right now I guess. Several locations in the Waukegan to Kenosha corridor are in the 60s right now. Definitely not in the 70s here.

UGN: http://www.weather.g...story/KUGN.html

Edit: Actually there is some inland locations cooling off into the 60s now. 63° at BUU. The power of dry air. UHI definitely noticeable tonight.

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I think the best timing is a function of geographic location and time of year. Storms forming right on or just barely ahead of the synoptic cold front is more common in spring. I'd say for the Upper Midwest a lot of the good summer action often occurs well ahead of the synoptic cold front.

I also think the effect of loss of heating in the 6 PM to 11 PM time frame is overrated. The sun doesn't set until after 9:00 PM where I am and the low level jet can keep things going strong well after sunset. I suppose if you're looking for supercells and tornadoes, late afternoon to early evening is the peak. If you live where those are exceedingly rare, your severe events are more likely to peak out slightly later on with a monster MCS or bow echo. I mean, the May 31, 1998 derecho arrived at 5:00 AM without losing any punch at all. That was an extreme setup, but it is not uncommon for the best squall line of the summer to roll through here between 9 PM and midnight without losing any punch. I even recall an incident of 3 inch hail occurring at 1:00 AM! In a normal year late-night severe boomers are pretty common.

I'd also note that the diurnal minimum for MCS activity is not right at dawn as you would think, but around mid-morning. The heating you get between sunrise and late morning may heat the surface quickly, but the unstable layer created doesn't necessarily have enough depth to affect thunderstorm development right away.

Statistics argue that your time frame is one of the worst time frames for severe weather. Sure you can pick out notable events to match any time frame but collectively between 4-10pm will always be the best time of the day to see severe/significant severe.

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Wow...i need more rain then that. GFS shows just over 1/4 inch falling... hopefully that comes, because after that I don't see much.

After all those "wet" years its going to be a change to get some below norm precip years.

I've been keeping my bird bath full. Today I took a picture of my babies that have a nest right outside the bedroom window in the arborvitae.

birdsjune10.jpg

I'm putting in a pond some day.

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87/60 is not exactly a heat wave, but it's noticeably the warmest day of the weekend. The dewpoint jump of several degrees is the difference today.

12z Euro very promising in the day 6-10 period. It has dropped the extended dry heat of a few days ago and has replaced it with persisent upper midwest troughiness with a front stalled over the area.

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12z Euro very promising in the day 6-10 period. It has dropped the extended dry heat of a few days ago and has replaced it with persisent upper midwest troughiness with a front stalled over the area.

A stalled out front would be the most beneficial feature at this point. Everything else has been too transient or too far north.

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About 82°/58° out here, with a 15 mph wind cutting off the lake. Cumulus are filling the sky overhead and to the west.

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