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May 31st - June 2nd Storm


andyhb

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Clouded up again here in RTP. I wouldn't be surprised if nothing comes out of this if the clouds don't break, which seems typical this spring for these systems that are talked about a lot for the potential of severe weather. Seems something always causes them to bust.

Thanks Brick Wierdmann.

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The last few FFC frames are taunting us with "is something finally starting up?!?!"

Getting some nice cool breezes and cloudy patches from the stuff trying to form just north of I-20. It's too far north for MBY at this time.

(have not been posting, just mostly lurking, because I don't have the wx knowledge to contribute much more than obs)

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No tornado watch here, but we do have a severe thunderstorm watch now.

216 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2012

The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch

334 in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following

areas

In North Carolina this watch includes 26 counties

In central North Carolina

Alamance Anson Chatham

Cumberland Davidson Durham

Edgecombe Forsyth Franklin

Guilford Harnett Hoke

Johnston Lee Montgomery

Moore Nash Orange

Randolph Richmond Sampson

Scotland Stanly wake

Wayne Wilson

This includes the cities of...Albemarle...Asheboro...Burlington...

Chapel HIll...Clinton...Durham...Fayetteville...Goldsboro...

Greensboro...High Point...Laurinburg...Lexington...Lillington...

Louisburg...Nashville...Pittsboro...Raeford...Raleigh...

Rockingham...Rocky Mount...Sanford...Smithfield...

Southern Pines...Troy...Wadesboro...Wilson and Winston-Salem.

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Sounds like the worst is yet to come.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0235 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...WRN MD...ERN WV...WRN VA...NWRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 332...

VALID 011935Z - 012030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 332 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 332

SHORTLY WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRE-FRONTAL

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD LINGER ALONG ERN EDGE OF WW 332.

DISCUSSION...FRONTAL CONVECTION IS PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY

25-30KT AND IS CRESTING THE APPALACHIANS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN

PARTS OF WW 332. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS

IT APPROACHES CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE.

GIVEN THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT IT SHOULD APPROACH THE

ERN-MOST PART OF THE WATCH AROUND 23-00Z TIME FRAME. TORNADO THREAT

REMAINS HIGHEST WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS.

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444 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2012

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

southern Franklin County in central North Carolina

eastern Wake County in central North Carolina

western Wilson County in central North Carolina

Nash County in central North Carolina

northern Johnston County in central North Carolina

* until 545 PM EDT

* at 440 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm 5 miles southeast of Flowers...or 8 miles

northeast of Smithfield...moving north at 45 mph. Quarter sized

hail and winds in excess of 58 mph are likely with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...

Emit...

Middlesex...

Bailey...

Spring Hope...

Castalia...

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL PASQUOTANK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

CENTRAL PERQUIMANS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 501 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHAPANOKE...OR 6

MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELIZABETH CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL

PASQUOTANK AND CENTRAL PERQUIMANS COUNTIES.

Brad Panovich WCNC@wxbrad

Seek shelter in Elizabeth city, NC tornado on the ground! http://twitpic.com/9rpj8e #ncwx #tornado

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Looking at the parameters one has to wonder why this front is not supporting a squall line all the way through NC. I am really surprised by the lack of convection south of RAH......still plenty unstable here east of I-95 and east of Hwy 17 the EHI etc show potential for some tornadic cells like the one near Elizabeth City earlier.

Currently 82 with a 68 DP so its muggy out but if the radar doesnt start firing up soon I think its gonna be a bust for most of central and southern eastern NC .

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