Isotherm Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/541 Comments or any questions appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 nicely done. you have any estimate on cyclone numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 nicely done. you have any estimate on cyclone numbers? Thanks. My guess for named storms is around 8-10, quite a bit below avg compared to the past decade. Tropical atlantic SST's are very cool right now, with the warmest SST's hugging the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Additionally, Nino conditions by late summer may increase wind shear in the tropics, further inhibiting cyclone growth. Also, forecast models generally indicate an abscence of upward motion in the deep tropics. I expect most of the named storms may develop in the Gulf of Mexico, or within 500-800 miles of the coastline. I'd probably place the SE US at greatest risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 i see. you and roger smith are far apart. i will be happy with meeting in the middle, lol. you think we will see several more beryls? this occuring in august could be alot stronger than beryl is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Good luck...sounds like a 1969 type Summer coming up...June and August had temperatures above normal and July below...Precipitation was above average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Very nice discussion, Isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good luck...sounds like a 1969 type Summer coming up...June and August had temperatures above normal and July below...Precipitation was above average... 1969 was my top analog for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good job Isotherm. Will be interesting seeing how this summer plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 1969 was my top analog for June. 1969 was VERY cold here in June with 11 days only in the 50s for highs. Seriously doubt that happening this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 Thanks guys! Good luck...sounds like a 1969 type Summer coming up...June and August had temperatures above normal and July below...Precipitation was above average... Good point Uncle. '69 does appear to be similar in positioning of anomalies. However I'd be surprised if we saw this level of cold across North America. Much different time climatically. Very cold Atlantic and Pacific. The resultant JJA should be much warmer than this IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 Very nice discussion, Isotherm. Same to you regarding your summer discussion, Don. Seems like we're not too far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 1969 was VERY cold here in June with 11 days only in the 50s for highs. Seriously doubt that happening this year. You're only saying that cause you want sweltering 100+ degrees and torches all of the time... And regarding 1969, what Josh would give to see Camille round two (in terms of wind speeds primarily, considering big ole' Katrina outdid it in virtually every other category). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Verification of my summer 2012 forecast.. Actual temp departures, taking an average of the 4 NYC stations — Newark, Central Park, LGA, and JFK. Actual June: +0.2 Forecasted June: +1 to +2 Grade: B Actual July: +2.8 Forecasted July: 0 to -1 Grade: D Actual August: +1.9 Forecasted August: +1 to +2 Grade: A Actual JJA: + 1.6 Forecasted JJA: 0 to +1 Grade for summer JJA temps in NYC: B Precip was generally above normal from NYC north, east, and south, and below to the west. Grade: B US temp and precip departure maps for JJA — I thought the positioning of precip and temp above/below anomalies worked out quite well compared to the forecast: SUMMER – June-July-August – TEMPS: SUMMER PRECIP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Great call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Great call! Thanks man, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You did well in some areas and others not so much like my area in northern MN. Its tough to forecast long term though so I am not expecting perfection. I am sure you will improve with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Wow, darned good call, and something NYC subforum is blessed with daily from not only Isotherm, but a Yankee's type line-up of non-red tag talent. Looking fwd to Nov wintercast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 You did well in some areas and others not so much like my area in northern MN. Its tough to forecast long term though so I am not expecting perfection. I am sure you will improve with time. Thanks. Yeah I missed your area in the Upper MW - thought there would be a higher frequency of cool shots, but the ridge remained strong up into sern Canada. I probably should have put a slight cool anomaly in Florida due to the excessive wetness. Other than that, I'm happy with the rest of the country and the Northeast which was my focus. Wow, darned good call, and something NYC subforum is blessed with daily from not only Isotherm, but a Yankee's type line-up of non-red tag talent. Looking fwd to Nov wintercast Thanks for the kind words! I've learned quite a bit from last winter's mistakes, so hopefully this year will prove to be a better forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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