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PHL Nina Climo & Final Winter Analogs trash taking time


Rainshadow

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THE ELEVEN WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMNS AT PHILADELPHIA DATING
BACK TO 1872:

  RANK       TEMPERATURE          YEAR
             (DEGREES F)

    1          63.57              1931
    2          61.23              1881...nina
    3          61.10              1900
    4          60.73              2007...nina
    5          60.60              2005
    6          60.40              1971...nina
    7          60.23              1927
    8          60.17              1975...nina
    9          60.13              2001
   10          60.03              1970...nina
   10          60.03              2010...nina

6 of 11 is pretty nina dominated.

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THE ELEVEN WARMEST METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMNS AT PHILADELPHIA DATING
BACK TO 1872:

  RANK   	TEMPERATURE          YEAR
             (DEGREES F)

	1          63.57              1931
	2          61.23              1881...nina
	3          61.10              1900
	4          60.73              2007...nina
	5          60.60              2005
	6          60.40              1971...nina
	7          60.23              1927
	8          60.17              1975...nina
	9          60.13              2001
   10          60.03              1970...nina
   10          60.03              2010...nina

6 of 11 is pretty nina dominated.

Since 1881-82 is before daily snowfall do you have a season total or estimate from old records on "how much for Philly" that winter?

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  • 2 months later...

I have 33.1F as preliminary final for the meteorological winter. Stats in the first post I have to check with CPC as to how they classify this nina. Now here is how ugly the analogs (winter average was 35.2F) worked here and throughout the country until February proving how a strongly negative NAO can trump the Pacific.

WE ARE ABOUT TO CLOSE THE BOOKS ON A VERY HISTORICAL LA NINA WINTER

WHICH REALLY WAS MORE LA MISSING IN ACTION WINTER AS FAR THE

TROPICAL PACIFIC WAS CONCERNED. GIVE OR TAKE A TENTH, THE

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER OF 2010-11 WILL AVERAGE 33.2 DEGREES IN

PHILADELPHIA. THE CURRENT WINTER NORMAL IS 34.8 DEGREES. THIS

WILL NOT BE THE COLDEST MODERATE OR STRONG LA NINA (WE ARE NEAR

THE CLASSIFICATION BORDER) WINTER ON RECORD AS THAT HONOR REMAINS

WITH 1892-3 AT 29.6 DEGREES. IF THE PHILADELPHIA AVERAGE IS 33.2

DEGREES, WE WILL TIE BE THE COLDEST MODERATE/STRONG LA NINA WINTER

SINCE 1970-71. IF WE DIP DOWN ANOTHER TENTH, IT WILL BE THE

COLDEST MODERATE/STRONG LA NINA WINTER SINCE 1942-3 WHICH WAS 32.3

DEGREES.

WHAT IS ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN SINCE SNOWFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1884 IN

PHILADELPHIA, THIS IS THE SNOWIEST MODERATE OR STRONG LA NINA SEASON

ON RECORD AT 44.0 INCHES AND WE ARE STILL COUNTING. THIS BROKE THE

PREVIOUS RECORD OF 39.6 INCHES SET IN 1916-17. THE SNOWIEST LA

NINA OF ANY STRENGTH WAS 65.5 INCHES SET IN 1995-6. THIS WAS ALSO

THE FIRST TIME IN ANY LA NINA STRENGTH SEASON THAT PHILADELPHIA

RECORDED TWO TWELVE INCH OR GREATER SINGLE SNOWFALL EVENTS. THE LAST

TWO SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL OF 122.7 INCHES AND COUNTING IS ALSO A

RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE SEASONS.

SINCE THE WINTER OF 1872-3, THERE HAVE BEEN 45 LA NINA WINTERS AND

17 HAVE REACHED MODERATE OR STRONG STRENGTH.

AS TO WHY THE COLD, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION

REMAINED STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE METEOROLOGICAL

WINTER. THERE IS A POSITIVE CORRELATION BETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND

COLD WINTERS IN THE NORTHEAST. FROM MID JANUARY THROUGH THE FIRST

WEEK OF FEBRUARY, THE PACIFIC NORTH ATLANTIC TELECONNECTION INDEX

TURNED POSITIVE WHICH MEANT RIDGING IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND

TROFFING IN THE EAST. THIS NOT ONLY KEPT THE COLDER THAN NORMAL

WEATHER GOING, BUT ALSO INITIATED AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WHICH

INCLUDED THE HEAVIEST SINGLE SNOWFALL EVENT IN PHILADELPHIA DURING

THE WINTER AND THE LARGEST ICE STORM OF THE WINTER. ONLY DURING

THE LAST THREE WEEKS HAS THE WEATHER PATTERN COME CLOSER TO A

TYPICAL LA NINA WINTER PATTERN. AS TO WHY THE SNOW, THERE IS ABOUT

A 2:1 RATIO OF BIG SNOWS IN PHILADELPHIA AND THE STATE OF THE

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION, WITH THE MAJORITY OCCURRING WHEN IT

WAS NEGATIVE. HEATHER ARCHAMBAULT HAS ALSO SHOWN THAT LARGER

PRECIPITATION EVENTS OFTEN OCCUR CLOSE TO PATTERN CHANGING TIMES.

WHILE THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION REMAINED NEGATIVE IN LATE

DECEMBER, IT WAS CLIMBING TOWARD NEUTRALITY DURING THE BOXING DAY

BLIZZARD. IT WAS CHANGING FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE DURING THE

JANUARY 26TH-27TH THUNDERSNOW WINTER STORM. TIMING AND LOCATION

NEVER HURT EITHER AS WE HAD TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY

PERFECT STORM TRACKS. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION WILL SEE ITS

RECORD BREAKING 16 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF NEGATIVE VALUES END THIS

FEBRUARY.

DECEMBER

post-623-0-01551800-1299003711.jpg

post-623-0-29064300-1299003725.jpg

JANUARY - the opposite would have been quite accurate in the east.

post-623-0-80012600-1299003736.jpg

post-623-0-99832500-1299003752.jpg

FEBRUARY

post-623-0-90137000-1299003771.jpg

post-623-0-34414500-1299003792.jpg

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