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PHL Nina Climo & Final Winter Analogs trash taking time

Rainshadow

By Rainshadow,
in Philadelphia Region

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

Posted
Posted 





Seasonal Snowfall and Nina Temps by category since 1949-50 (61 winters)

Strong Ninas.......15.9 inches.......35.8F.....6 seasons
Moderate Ninas.....13.8 inches.......35.3F.....7 seasons
Weak Ninas.........23.1 inches.......33.8F.....7 seasons

Enso Neutral.... ..22.0 inches (22 seasons)

Weak Ninos.........28.1 inches.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.....24.3 inches.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.......27.0 inches.......6 seasons

Current winter normal 34.8F and 61 year sample snowfall average 21.9 inches


Breakdown of single major snowfall events by enso state as measured in PHL


Number of 6 inch or greater single events

Strong Ninas........3......6 seasons
Moderate Ninas......1......7 seasons
Weak Ninas..........4......7 seasons

Enso Neutral.............21.............22 seasons
Enso Neutral cool........15.............12 seasons
Enso Neutral warm........5..............9 seasons
Really Enso Neutral......1........... ..1 season

Weak Ninos.........5.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.....8.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.......8.......6 seasons


Number of 10 inch or greater single events

Strong Ninas........0......6 seasons
Moderate Ninas......0......7 seasons
Weak Ninas..........1......7 seasons

Enso Neutral........8.............22 seasons
Enso Neutral cool...6.............12 seasons
Enso Neutral warm...2..............9 seasons
Really Enso Neutral.0..............1 season

Weak Ninos...........3.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.......1.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.........6.......6 seasons

October came in at 59.0, +1.8F.

In moderate and strong ninas only:

If November is “cool” (< 45.4F), ensuing winter average temperature 34.1F/ Snowfall 19.8 inches

If November is “normal” (45.4F – 47.2F), ensuing winter average temperature 36.1F/ Snowfall 15.0 inches

If November is “warm”, (> 47.2F) ensuing winter average temperature 34.9F/ Snowfall 15.3 inches

Normal temp 34.8F / Normal snowfall 19.3 inches

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted 





Seasonal Snowfall and Nina Temps by category since 1949-50 (61 winters)

Strong Ninas.......15.9 inches.......35.8F.....6 seasons
Moderate Ninas.....13.8 inches.......35.3F.....7 seasons
Weak Ninas.........23.1 inches.......33.8F.....7 seasons

Enso Neutral.... ..22.0 inches (22 seasons)

Weak Ninos.........28.1 inches.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.....24.3 inches.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.......27.0 inches.......6 seasons

Current winter normal 34.8F and 61 year sample snowfall average 21.9 inches


Breakdown of single major snowfall events by enso state as measured in PHL


Number of 6 inch or greater single events

Strong Ninas........3......6 seasons
Moderate Ninas......1......7 seasons
Weak Ninas..........4......7 seasons

Enso Neutral.............21.............22 seasons
Enso Neutral cool........15.............12 seasons
Enso Neutral warm........5..............9 seasons
Really Enso Neutral......1........... ..1 season

Weak Ninos.........5.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.....8.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.......8.......6 seasons


Number of 10 inch or greater single events

Strong Ninas........0......6 seasons
Moderate Ninas......0......7 seasons
Weak Ninas..........1......7 seasons

Enso Neutral........8.............22 seasons
Enso Neutral cool...6.............12 seasons
Enso Neutral warm...2..............9 seasons
Really Enso Neutral.0..............1 season

Weak Ninos...........3.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.......1.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.........6.......6 seasons

October came in at 59.0, +1.8F.

In moderate and strong ninas only:

If November is “cool” (< 45.4F), ensuing winter average temperature 34.1F/ Snowfall 19.8 inches

If November is “normal” (45.4F – 47.2F), ensuing winter average temperature 36.1F/ Snowfall 15.0 inches

If November is “warm”, (> 47.2F) ensuing winter average temperature 34.9F/ Snowfall 15.3 inches

Normal temp 34.8F / Normal snowfall 19.3 inches

Thank you for the information Rainshadow.

Overall, the odds of a normal season for snow at PH airport seem about 50/50.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

since 1956 NYC has seen 22 years producing 30 storms with snowfalls of 9.6" or more ...

nine el nino years, three weak el nino's, one la nina, four weak la nina's, one neutral, five neutral positive, and eight neutral negatives...

the list......

03/56 13.5".....Weak La nina...

03/58 11.8".....El Nino........

12/59 13.7".....Neg/Neu.....

03/60 14.5".....Neg/Neu.....

12/60 15.2".....Neg/Neu.....

01/61 ..9.9".....Neg/Neu.....

02/61 17.4".....Neg/Neu.....

01/64 12.5".....El Nino.......

02/67 12.5".....Neg/Neu.....

03/67 ..9.8".....Neg/Neu.....

02/69 15.3".....El Nino........

01/78 13.6".....Weak El Nino

02/78 17.7".....Weak El Nino

02/79 12.7".....Neutral........

04/82 ..9.6".....Neu/Positive

02/83 17.6".....El Nino........

03/93 10.6".....Neu/Positive

02/94 12.8".....Neu/Positive

02/95 10.8".....El Nino........

01/96 20.2".....Weak La Nina

02/96 10.7".....Weak La Nina

12/00 12.0".....Weak La Nina

02/03 19.3".....El Nino.........

12/03 14.0".....Neu/Positive..

01/04 10.4".....Neu/Positive..

01/05 13.8".....Weak El Nino..

02/06 26.9".....Neu/Neg........

12/09 10.9".....El Nino.........

02/10 10.0".....El Nino.........

02/10 20.9".....El Nino.........

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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1 or 2 degrees above the so-called averages is actually becoming the new average for today's climate.

November is a month that has warmed since the late 1800s and that change looks like its accelerated even more this century. The last cold (among the lowest third) November in PHL was 1997. Thankfully October has not changed as much.

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Sundog

Sundog

Posted
Posted

I think there's a decent chance this month finishes below normal. Negative departures coming up, then a warmup and then a big cool down to close out the month. If we're cyrrently neutral then we should finish slightly below normal barring any major changes in guidance.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Posted

I think there's a decent chance this month finishes below normal. Negative departures coming up, then a warmup and then a big cool down to close out the month. If we're cyrrently neutral then we should finish slightly below normal barring any major changes in guidance.

Agree. The cold should outduel the warmth over the next couple weeks. Thanksgiving to the end of the month may feature -10 departures every day.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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the big negative departures from the first 10 days of month at philly have now been wiped out. .1 above as of today, not including today.

I'm guessing that PHL will end up in the normal "third". Nina climo aside about snow, I hope everyone realizes all of the October canary correlation work I have done is totally temperature related. The chi square testing I did was only on temperatures, not snow (I didn't even bother).

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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I'm guessing that PHL will end up in the normal "third". Nina climo aside about snow, I hope everyone realizes all of the October canary correlation work I have done is totally temperature related. The chi square testing I did was only on temperatures, not snow (I didn't even bother).

Now that the gfs has warmed the cold down at the end of the month, thru today, our ccf and off the sfc gfs temps, I'm getting 48.0 for Nov for PHL which would put it in the "warm" third.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Yeah I'm getting a warm/warm feeling. I have the analog series ready to go, just want to see where we are at come Friday morning.

I have the same feeling...Central Park could tie the record high min for November...Coldest so far is 36...It might get a little colder but will it stay above freezing?...Not a good sign and it reminds me of 1998...

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
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should get a decent negative departure today. Phl is at 1.6 abv. Assuming we pull low 40s for a high, we should cut some of that departure. Looking at the rest of the month we should have multiple days of below normal temps but the next week lake cutter could pull a good pos departure. My early guess is around .7 abv for the month.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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should get a decent negative departure today. Phl is at 1.6 abv. Assuming we pull low 40s for a high, we should cut some of that departure. Looking at the rest of the month we should have multiple days of below normal temps but the next week lake cutter could pull a good pos departure. My early guess is around .7 abv for the month.

LOL I nearly forgot I have to append the analogs to the end of the afd tonight. Yeah it looks like a positive departure.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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Final answer


ITS TIME FOR OUR SEMI ANNUAL ANALOG EXERCISE, THIS ONE FOR THE
UPCOMING WINTER, OF MATCHING CURRENT AUTUMN TEMPERATURES, ENSO
STATES AND ENSUING WINTER WEATHER RESULTS IN THE PAST. AFTER A
STRONG EL NINO LAST WINTER WHICH BROUGHT WITH IT A THOROUGH RECORD
SMASHING 78.7 INCHES OF SNOW TO PHILADELPHIA, THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
HAS TURNED THE TABLES FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.

THE LATEST WEEKLY READINGS FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC HAVE THE ENSO
3.4 REGION TEETERING BETWEEN A STRONG AND MODERATE LA NINA. MOST
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MODERATE OR
STRONG LA NINA TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WINTER
SEASON WITH VARYING DEGREES OF WEAKENING AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE
SPRING. THE LAST LA NINA WINTER OF SIMILAR STRENGTH OCCURRED DURING
THE WINTER OF 2007-8.

MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA WINTERS UNLIKE THEIR EL NINO COUNTERPARTS
USUALLY HAVE LESS SNOW AND ALSO EXHIBIT LESS OF A CHANCE OF HAVING
LARGE SINGLE SNOWFALL EVENTS IN PHILADELPHIA. SINCE 1950 NO MODERATE
OR STRONG LA NINA WINTER (13 SEASONS IN ALL) HAS HAD A SINGLE
SNOWFALL EVENT OF 10 INCHES OR MORE AS MEASURED OFFICIALLY IN
PHILADELPHIA WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINOS HAVE HAD SEVEN (14
SEASONS IN ALL). PART OF THE CAUSE IS THE WEAKER SUBTROPICAL JET
DURING LA NINA WINTERS. THIS HAS A TWO FOLD EFFECT, ONE BRINGING
LESS TROPICAL MOISTURE THIS FAR NORTH AND TWO HAVING A TENDENCY TO
PHASE EITHER TOO EARLY OR LATE TO MAXIMIZE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN
OUR AREA. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER-PHASED MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
THE LONG TERM NOT VERIFYING WELL THIS AUTUMN. MODERATE TO STRONG
LA NINA WINTERS OFTEN HAVE A NEGATIVE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
SIGNAL WHICH MEANS THE WARMEST WATERS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ARE IN
THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS SET-UP FAVORS RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL OR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN VS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS
MEANS THE ARCTIC INTRUSIONS ENTER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN UNITED
STATES FIRST. THIS PATTERN HAS JUST OCCURRED. WHILE NOT BLOWTORCH
WINTERS, MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINAS TEND TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY MILDER
THAN NORMAL WINTERS. SINCE THE WINTER OF 1949-50, MODERATE LA NINA
WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED 35.3F IN PHL, WHILE STRONG LA NINA WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED 35.8F. THE CURRENT WINTER NORMAL IS 34.8F.

THE RANDOM ELEMENT IN OUR WINTERS IS ALWAYS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS
LAST WINTER SHOWED, A STRONGLY NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
CAN EVEN HOLD THE WARMTH FROM A STRONG EL NINO AT BAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FORECASTING SKILL OF THIS FEATURE IS NOT EASY,
ESPECIALLY MORE THAN A FEW WEEKS IN ADVANCE. LAST WINTER THE
STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE EQUATOR AS MEASURED BY THE QUASI
BIANNUAL OSCILLATION (QBO) WERE NEGATIVE. FORMER NWS METEOROLOGIST
WES JUNKER FORWARDED US SOME RESEARCH ARTICLES, WHEN THE QBO IS
NEGATIVE, THE TENDENCY FOR BLOCKING AROUND THE POLES (AND THUS THE
STORMIER, COLDER AND MORE NEGATIVE NAO) INCREASES. THE OPPOSITE IS
TRUE WHEN IT IS POSITIVE AS SHOULD BE THE CASE THIS WINTER. OTHER
RESEARCH MEASURES INCLUDING THE NEWFOUNDLAND WARM POOL (ESTIMATING
A NEAR NEUTRAL NAO THIS WINTER) AND A CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC
SURFACE PRESSURE/NAO CORRELATION (COURTESY OF A MIDWESTERN
COLLEAGUE, ESTIMATING A STRONGLY POSITIVE NAO) ARE NOT SUGGESTING
A NEGATIVE NAO. LAST WINTER WAS A RECORD BREAKING NEGATIVE AO/NAO
WINTER, BUT STRONGLY NEGATIVE NAO WINTERS DO NOT OFTEN OCCUR IN
PAIRS. ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE TIME, THE SIGN SWITCHES.  SOMEONE
SHOULD TELL MOTHER NATURE THIS AS WE ARE ABOUT TO HAVE OUR
FOURTEENTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH OF NEGATIVE NAO(S) WITH NO END IN
SIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES.

WHICH FINALLY BRINGS US TO THE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES
THIS AUTUMN. BOTH THIS PAST OCTOBER AND CURRENT NOVEMBER WILL BE IN
THE WARMEST TERCILE (THIRD) OF ALL OCTOBERS AND NOVEMBERS SINCE 1872.
THIS WILL BE THE 23RD TIME THAT THIS HAS OCCURRED. WHEN OCTOBER HAS
BEEN WARM, 75 PERCENT OF THE ENSUING WINTERS HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN
THE CURRENT NORMAL OF 34.8F. WHEN BOTH OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER HAVE
BEEN WARM, THAT PERCENTAGE EDGES UPWARD TO 77 PERCENT. IF WE LOOK
AT JUST LA NINA WINTERS REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH, THE PERCENTAGE IS
71, WHILE DURING MODERATE OR STRONG LA NINAS ITS 75 PERCENT.

SO WE HAVE SCOURED THE RECORDS TO FIND SIMILAR OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER
TEMPERATURES IN PHL DURING LA NINA FALLS AND POSTED BELOW IS WHAT
OCCURRED IN THE PAST DURING ENSUING WINTERS. WE HAVE FOUND FIVE, TWO
STRONG LA NINAS, TWO MODERATE LA NINAS AND ONE WEAK LA NINA. TWO
OTHER WEAK LA NINAS DID NOT HAVE THE SAME PDO SIGN AS IS CURRENTLY
OCCURRING IN THE PACIFIC. WITH ALL OF THOSE 70S SHOWING AS
PERCENTAGES ABOVE MAYBE IT IS NOT IRONIC THAT MANY OF THESE ANALOGS
ARE FROM THE 70S.

THIS IS BASED ON THE 138 YEARS OF RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. THE
NORMALS ARE THE CURRENT 1971-2000 NORMALS.


YEAR           ENSUING   ENSUING   ENSUING  AVG    ENSUING ENSUING
              DEC       JAN       FEB      TEMP   PCPN    SNOW

1950-1         34.2      36.0      36.4     35.5    9.19    4.6
1970-1         35.8      27.8      36.1     33.2   10.83   18.3
1971-2         41.5      35.1      32.4     36.3    8.64   12.2
1973-4         38.6      35.9      31.7     35.4   11.43   20.8
1975-6*        36.9      28.7      40.9     35.5   10.95   17.5

AVERAGE        37.4      32.7      35.5     35.2   10.21   14.7
NORMAL         37.4      32.3      34.8     34.8    9.57   19.3

* BEST MATCH OF ALL THE TELECONNECTION INDICES, BUT NO TWO
WINTERS ARE EVER ALIKE.

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS WINTER HAS THE PHILADELPHIA AREA
IN EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
DRIER OR COOLER THAN NORMAL.

AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS.
WE HOPE EVERYBODY HAS A VERY HAPPY AND HEALTHY UPCOMING HOLIDAY
AND WINTER SEASON. WE ARE GOING HEAVY ON THE SALT FOR THIS
UPCOMING WINTER, NOT EXACTLY GOOD FOR ONE`S BLOOD PRESSURE IN MORE
WAYS THAN ONE.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

Snowfall that winter:

MPO - 58.0"

ABE - 18.9"

TTN - 17.1"

PHL - 17.5"

ILG - 13.2"

ACY - 10.0"

Congrats Mike2010 and the grill.

FWIW, November '75 was a major torch in the East (Philly's 3rd warmest November on record)...we're mild but not that epic in comparison (probably end up near +2 after Tuesday's torch).

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

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Congrats Mike2010 and the grill.

FWIW, November '75 was a major torch in the East (Philly's 3rd warmest November on record)...we're mild but not that epic in comparison (probably end up near +2 after Tuesday's torch).

BTW pending the first cold snap, Mark's climatological first cold snap outlook for this winter is a mean temp of 34.6F, 0.2 below normal.

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