nycsnow Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Major help from the H5 northern stream Is that a possibility that it can happen like this with the storm? I see the 12z dies out in the SE. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Is that a possibility that it can happen like this with the storm? I see the 12z dies out in the SE. Thanks Yeah, absolutely. All the major flood producers here had baroclinic help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Yeah, absolutely. All the major flood producers here had baroclinic help lolz at the dt stab on new oreleans hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Yeah, absolutely. All the major flood producers here had baroclinic help Thanks for the reply! Can't wait for the 0z models tonight should be a lot more telling with the new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 lolz at the dt stab on new oreleans hit.. Lol...said if euro is right by by NO....lmao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 hopefully the models continue to go with the solution of suppressing Issac southward until he peters out and sets us up for a hot and dry Labor Day weekend finish to summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 30, 2012 Author Share Posted August 30, 2012 It is interesting that early season cyclone predictions for the Atlantic Basin were basically normal to below activity due to an increasing El Nino that would keep the numbers down. NOAA did revise their forecast on AUGUST 9 based SSTs and the 20 year increased activity cycle. I'm beginning to think that the transitional stages of the ENSO in the right season are more important.JMO NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño Updated outlook calls for near- or above-normal Atlantic season August 9, 2012 Satellite image of Hurricane Ernesto taken on Aug. 7, 2012. (Credit: NOAA) This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May. Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of: 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including: 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which: 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph) The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. “We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.” However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely develop in August or September. “El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said. “We have a long way to go until the end of the season, and we shouldn’t let our guard down,” said Laura Furgione, acting director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Hurricanes often bring dangerous inland flooding as we saw a year ago in the Northeast with Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. Even people who live hundreds of miles from the coast need to remain vigilant through the remainder of the season.” “It is never too early to prepare for a hurricane,” said Tim Manning, FEMA’s deputy administrator for protection and national preparedness. “We are in the middle of hurricane season and now is the time to get ready. There are easy steps you can take to get yourself and your family prepared. Visit www.ready.gov to learn more.” NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us onFacebook, Twitter and our other social media channels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Well the 6z GFS makes Leslie interesting... Still think this could come further west than Burmuda. Just something to keep an eye on. If leslie can stay weaker, longer, than it's viable. Not convinced yet, but keep an eye on it. Models have been too far east in the long term with some TC's this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Well the 6z GFS makes Leslie interesting... Still think this could come further west than Burmuda. Just something to keep an eye on. If leslie can stay weaker, longer, than it's viable. Not convinced yet, but keep an eye on it. Models have been too far east in the long term with some TC's this year. Yes, that run def raised an eyebrow this morning. I was never really convinced it would fish as early as the models had been showing in the long range. Something to track for a few days at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 Yes, that run def raised an eyebrow this morning. I was never really convinced it would fish as early as the models had been showing in the long range. Something to track for a few days at least... The problem is with leslie unlike issace, their is no WAR. Issac had expansive ridging to its north. While leslie has trofs after trofs coming off the east seaboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Leslie is getting its western side more organized with deceasing shear. Bermuda better watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Hurricane Michael (now a Cat 3) is looking impressive this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 ^^^ those fish better watch out ;-) Best looking system all year though...I guess we need to shift those conditions he formed under 1500 miles west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 This season is terrible. Imagine a year where PHL gets 15 snow events but none greater than 2". That's been this year for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Imagine a year where PHL gets 15 snow events but none greater than 2". Is this your winter forecast for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 It seems that the thunderstorm complex that moved into the gulf has some rotation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Is this your winter forecast for the area? Sorry I was just trying to speak in icep**** so 90% of the region would get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Sorry I was just trying to speak in icep**** so 90% of the region would get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 This season is terrible. Imagine a year where PHL gets 15 snow events but none greater than 2". That's been this year for me. boy, I'm feeling pretty sympathetic right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 boy, I'm feeling pretty sympathetic right now... To be fair, this is about what I expected. Though I'd be happier with being on the 'E' storm instead of a bunch of crap to get us to 'M' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 To be fair, this is about what I expected. Though I'd be happier with being on the 'E' storm instead of a bunch of crap to get us to 'M' Does that expectation apply to the remainder of the season as well? Just curious if you're bullish or bearish from here on out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Does that expectation apply to the remainder of the season as well? Just curious if you're bullish or bearish from here on out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 too funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Does this image also apply to Wall Street? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 This season is terrible. Imagine a year where PHL gets 15 snow events but none greater than 2". That's been this year for me. i would gladly take 15 1-2" snow events...ray probably is thinking, welcome to elko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i would gladly take 15 1-2" snow events...ray probably is thinking, welcome to elko. I probably would have liked this season 5 years ago before I had to produce a daily tropical cyclone report for clients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 So Adam, is the soon-to-become TD in the Central Atlantic something that we could at least theoretically watch for a potential US landfall or is it almost certainly a fish storm? For some folks, it doesn't matter if it will only be a fish storm. For other folks, it's interesting to watch these things form and intensify, but it's way more relevant (and way more interesting) to consider a potential US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 So Adam, is the soon-to-become TD in the Central Atlantic something that we could at least theoretically watch for a potential US landfall or is it almost certainly a fish storm? For some folks, it doesn't matter if it will only be a fish storm. For other folks, it's interesting to watch these things form and intensify, but it's way more relevant (and way more interesting) to consider a potential US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 So what you're saying is: watch out Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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