Harbourton Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Although it's way out in fantasy land, the GFS is also signaling an east coast threat around the first part of September. May be Christie should dust off the old "Get the hell off the beach" speech. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Although it's way out in fantasy land, the GFS is also signaling an east coast threat around the first part of September. May be Christie should dust off the old "Get the hell off the beach" speech. :) stipulation on/Yes, it's in fantasy land/stipulation off, but it's had it now for three model runs. It's at least an amusing thing to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 12z gfs is IRENE'ish..def interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 12z gfs is IRENE'ish..def interesting 12z euro doesnt even have a td Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 12z euro doesnt even have a td The GFS has been taking the Euro to the woodshed in the tropics this year. Day 12 is fantasy range, but the pattern is setting up nicely for just such an event with a storm moving up the coast, so I wouldn't discount the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 The GFS has been taking the Euro to the woodshed in the tropics this year. Day 12 is fantasy range, but the pattern is setting up nicely for just such an event with a storm moving up the coast, so I wouldn't discount the GFS. im not sure on the rest of the storms, but i know the euro took the gfs to the woodshed on Gordon. Gfs as you recall had gordon hitting the US or coming close to a US hit. While the euro swung it ots in the central atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 im not sure on the rest of the storms, but i know the euro took the gfs to the woodshed on Gordon. Gfs as you recall had gordon hitting the US or coming close to a US hit. While the euro swung it ots in the central atl. The GFS nailing Debbie and Ernesto come to mind. I didn't follow 93L (Gordon) at all as I was without internet for a week, but I just read over the tropics thread from a week ago, and it looked like both the GFS and Euro had a potential TC coming west (GFS further west), and on the same run, they both took it OTS. No big deal though. I guess the upshot of my previous comment was that it is not just the Euro and then everyone else anymore. The GFS has made great strides over the last two years on TC's and its solutions should be held with equal weight to the Euro IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Adam or Tom, Jack (Ordille) used to always talk about mslp anomalies for Hatteras in July and how (like winter), it sets the pattern for the general tropical cyclone track for the season. I dont recall which departures meant what and when I run the cdc's site I'm getting alot of negative anomalies. Have you found it useful, never heard of it, kind of hit and miss, etc? As an example I'm going to just post the actual mslp the last two Julys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Adam or Tom, Jack (Ordille) used to always talk about mslp anomalies for Hatteras in July and how (like winter), it sets the pattern for the general tropical cyclone track for the season. I dont recall which departures meant what and when I run the cdc's site I'm getting alot of negative anomalies. Have you found it useful, never heard of it, kind of hit and miss, etc? As an example I'm going to just post the actual mslp the last two Julys. Jack was always a cold pool kinda guy too and believed in separating ENSO strength by region for sensible weather here. A smart man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Tony, I've never heard of it before. Re: all the negative MSLP anomlies - makes sense with all the warmth the last two summers, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Tony, I've never heard of it before. Re: all the negative MSLP anomlies - makes sense with all the warmth the last two summers, no? I have to see if I saved anything from the former. The latter, in hindsight yeah it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 You have to see the 12z Canadian...major lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 You have to see the 12z Canadian...major lolz. that solution could make things tricky at the MA beaches next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 You have to see the 12z Canadian...major lolz. lol. It looks like it wants to move more west after 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 IF the GFS is right it's gonna rain...a lot...next Wednesday night and Thursday from Isaac leftovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 IF the GFS is right it's gonna rain...a lot...next Wednesday night and Thursday from Isaac leftovers. i hope the gfs is right causeif the euro is right we are cooking in some big heat labor day weekend which would blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Tombo, (too many toms in here btw!) I think that's gonna be dependent on where the remnants head after "landfall" which we can assume will happen somewhere around the southern states. If the 0z GFS is correct, and the remnants make it to us, it's bc of the continued weakness from the WAR. However, if Isaac's leftovers stay south and west of us , such as the 6z GFS shows, it's bc the WAR flexes its muscle a bit and we cook. These are strictly scenario solutions and not a forecast. Just touching on the subject. Right now, just gonna see how this guy interacts in the Carribean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Tombo, (too many toms in here btw!) I think that's gonna be dependent on where the remnants head after "landfall" which we can assume will happen somewhere around the southern states. If the 0z GFS is correct, and the remnants make it to us, it's bc of the continued weakness from the WAR. However, if Isaac's leftovers stay south and west of us , such as the 6z GFS shows, it's bc the WAR flexes its muscle a bit and we cook. These are strictly scenario solutions and not a forecast. Just touching on the subject. Right now, just gonna see how this guy interacts in the Carribean. pretty much. Thats the difference between the gfs and the euro. Euro builds in the ridge while the gfs is weaker and splits it sending issac into fl region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Thursday 8 AM...just a bit of difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Thursday 8 AM...just a bit of difference! Quite... The difference is the euro being more west, the center stays out over deeper, warmer waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 that euro would not be a good scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 22, 2012 Share Posted August 22, 2012 Thursday 8 AM...just a bit of difference! The big difference is now beyond 120 hours. The 12z Euro did shift east toward the GFS up to the 120 hour time period, but then a weakened Isaac continues on a NW heading whereas the GFS has Isaac drifting almost due north into the weakness. The ingestion of GI-V data tomorrow afternoon will tell us who is right with Isaac with regard to the ridge strength beyond the current 120 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Next Friday night...GFS brings the remnants low track south of Philly, putting us in the "vaunted" north/west (left of track) side of the storm. Euro has the system much farther west. Isaac drops more rain over the Carolinas per the GFS than it does over us...the model brings several inches down there, much more modest rains up here as the storm slowly moves north post landfall (regardless of scenario as both models slow this thing down after landfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 Next Friday night...GFS brings the remnants low track south of Philly, putting us in the "vaunted" north/west (left of track) side of the storm. Euro has the system much farther west. Isaac drops more rain over the Carolinas per the GFS than it does over us...the model brings several inches down there, much more modest rains up here as the storm slowly moves north post landfall (regardless of scenario as both models slow this thing down after landfall). It would be better to show the gfs track at hr 192. After that the truncation just really messes with it. Hr 192 has a large area of heavy rain over delmarva and va and wva. The truncation hits and it barely has anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 It would be better to show the gfs track at hr 192. After that the truncation just really messes with it. Hr 192 has a large area of heavy rain over delmarva and va and wva. The truncation hits and it barely has anything. I do think there will be a heavy rain threat if the GFS track verifies but I think the Carolinas and Virginia will have it much worse than we will IF that track and that timing were right. The map at 216 meant to show more representation of low (for me). QPF even post Day 5 can be off a fair bit even without truncation. If we had a faster moving system by about a day (where the system could ride up along the front that moves through on Tuesday night/Wednesday) we would be a bit more fooked. This scenario isn't good here but it's worse down in the Carolinas and Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 I do think there will be a heavy rain threat if the GFS track verifies but I think the Carolinas and Virginia will have it much worse than we will IF that track and that timing were right. The map at 216 meant to show more representation of low (for me). QPF even post Day 5 can be off a fair bit even without truncation. If we had a faster moving system by about a day (where the system could ride up along the front that moves through on Tuesday night/Wednesday) we would be a bit more fooked. This scenario isn't good here but it's worse down in the Carolinas and Virginia. yea i agree, the further south obviously would have worse affects since the system would be stronger. Some of the 6z gfs ens members have some copious amounts of rain for the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 06Z GFS says surfs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 ^ I know it's just one off hour op run, but I was surprised to see it stay <1000mb after spending so much time over land. Not really worth analyzing, just thought it was interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2012 Share Posted August 23, 2012 ^ I know it's just one off hour op run, but I was surprised to see it stay <1000mb after spending so much time over land. Not really worth analyzing, just thought it was interesting... Major help from the H5 northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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