mike2010 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 bump http://www.americanw...ost__p__1678859 hey noww I sense an upgrade to 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 hey noww I sense an upgrade to 20%. I sense an unreadable tropical thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 waitin for my trophy.. 2. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Latest computer model tracks for Atlantic storms. Sorry if it is unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Latest computer model tracks for Atlantic storms. Sorry if it is unreadable. I'm reading it just fine. It's kind of nice to not have to sift through the main thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Last time I looked at the MJO, I thought we were getting into more favorable phases for tropical development, then again posting this going from July into August is not exactly genius material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Last time I looked at the MJO, I thought we were getting into more favorable phases for tropical development, then again posting this going from July into August is not exactly genius material. MJO Phase Space is all screwed up because of the massive divergence/mass flux over the West Pacific at 25N. The "actual" MJO wave is located over the Indian Ocean right now, which is basically neutral for Atlantic development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 6, 2012 Author Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ernesto has a large envelope of precip. Somebody is goining to get a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 MJO Phase Space is all screwed up because of the massive divergence/mass flux over the West Pacific at 25N. The "actual" MJO wave is located over the Indian Ocean right now, which is basically neutral for Atlantic development. Ok, I have alot of MJO rust. Not that its the whole enchilada, but it looks like more favorable phases (even if its just divergence aloft) coming in the next week or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 Ok, I have alot of MJO rust. Not that its the whole enchilada, but it looks like more favorable phases (even if its just divergence aloft) coming in the next week or two? I'm thinking the last 10 days or so of the month. Not really buying the CPS forecasts right now. If you look at Roundy's progs, he's got -OLR anomalies getting into the Western Hemisphere at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted August 6, 2012 Share Posted August 6, 2012 I'm thinking the last 10 days or so of the month. Not really buying the CPS forecasts right now. If you look at Roundy's progs, he's got -OLR anomalies getting into the Western Hemisphere at the end of the month Adam, Thanks! No one is planning on buying a new snow thrower for this winter as far as I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 poor ernesto...just as it's beginning to get its sh*t together the Yucatan is ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Models are begining to veer a little more northwesterly with 92L. Maybe not a rinse and repeat of Ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Some GFS members are diverging more to the NW for 92L. Guess it's the timing of the Bermuda High weaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 the wave after 92l might be the "bigger" threat for the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 the wave after 92l might be the "bigger" threat for the East Coast. You just had to go there, didn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 You just had to go there, didn't you? I don't "woof" and throw *aleet* *allet* out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 the wave after 92l might be the "bigger" threat for the East Coast. Not yet. Give it another week. The end of August looks to be the sweet spot for a EC US threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Not yet. Give it another week. The end of August looks to be the sweet spot for a EC US threat. (<---hums to himself and looks away) For the love of, the end of August needs to be warm and dry. I'm definitely wishcasting: late August looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 (<---hums to himself and looks away) For the love of, the end of August needs to be warm and dry. I'm definitely wishcasting: late August looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 lol It is almost scary how well 2012 is following the typical here. Cue the ridge Aug 19-25 and then the warm anomaly retrogrades, putting a weakness on the East Coast in the final week with a possible tropical cyclone interaction. I refuse to buy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 HM posted in the Philly forum tropical thread! I am now complete to quote from Tom Cruise. LOL Howver the weakness he mentioned is showing up on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Not yet. Give it another week. The end of August looks to be the sweet spot for a EC US threat. lol It is almost scary how well 2012 is following the typical here. Cue the ridge Aug 19-25 and then the warm anomaly retrogrades, putting a weakness on the East Coast in the final week with a possible tropical cyclone interaction. I refuse to buy it! In response to the happy hour g2g Irene redux will cancel it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Anyone see world news tonight on ABC today? Second story in weas about how this hurricane season is going to be really bad. Mass hysteria! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Anyone see world news tonight on ABC today? Second story in was about how this hurricane season is going to be really bad. Mass hysteria! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Sorry for the double post. Corona kicking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 12, 2012 Author Share Posted August 12, 2012 Less shear ahead for the remnants of 07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Not yet. Give it another week. The end of August looks to be the sweet spot for a EC US threat. Do you see anything different Adam, or am I asking too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Do you see anything different Adam, or am I asking too soon? I'm still on board with the general idea. Clearly, activity is going to pick up in about 7-10. I don't think there is any doubt about that. The big question is what does the subtropical ridge/NAO look like. It seems to me that the pattern will be conducive for US threats +/- 5 days around Aug 31, but that's a lot lower confidence than the general activity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 euro runs continue to show a threat for the eastern seaboard towards labor day week/weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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