Harbourton Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 OK Aberto is already in the books. Dr.Gray is predicting- We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. (as of 4 April 2012) By Philip And here's a pic of a potential Sub-tropical or tropical entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 19, 2012 Author Share Posted July 19, 2012 Latest pic One wave movin west of the Lesser Antilles, anothe about mid-strean and a vigorous disturbance about to emerge from Africa. Howver the SAL looks pretty potent. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 24, 2012 Author Share Posted July 24, 2012 Wave coming off Africa has held together today may be something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 24, 2012 Share Posted July 24, 2012 when you dont see adam posting in this thread basically means he has given up on the tropics for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 when you dont see adam posting in this thread basically means he has given up on the tropics for this year. Not much to get excited about right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 SAL is ruling the roost in central atlantic...that wave will have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Not much to get excited about right now You know you did this to yourself? Ever since you posted torches in the winter threads??? A byproduct of those torches was the SAL being extra strong, and the MJO being non existent. :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 Latest African wave hasn't poofed out yet. Still hangin in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 muahahahahahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 muahahahahahahahah great scientific synopsis good not have said it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 All you wave watchers will want to keep an eye on the wave at 30W. I don't think it's a big threat right now, but it's at least the first chance of something this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 All you wave watchers will want to keep an eye on the wave at 30W. I don't think it's a big threat right now, but it's at least the first chance of something this year. Other than the first 4 storms* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Other than the first 4 storms* Sorry, should have specified something tropical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Sorry, should have specified something tropical Don't shoot the messenger! Lol. Heard it won't be something till it gets a little closer to Antilles and points North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Don't shoot the messenger! Lol. Heard it won't be something till it gets a little closer to Antilles and points North? Yeah. Best shot is a week from now east of the Bahamas. Euro plows it right into Hispaniola, but track forecasts are obviously a crap chute this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You just ruined this weekend too for me, thanks. Moving this reply here... What will be the best is when people are arguing that disorganized convection should/shouldn't get a name over the Bahamas. Then with the trough where it is, we'll get a bunch of people wishcasting it up the East Coast. *If only it were stronger* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Moving this reply here... What will be the best is when people are arguing that disorganized convection should/shouldn't get a name over the Bahamas. Then with the trough where it is, we'll get a bunch of people wishcasting it up the East Coast. *If only it were stronger* [wishcast] ...maybe it will come up the coast as a non-named "wave"...and give everyone an inch, perhaps two or more...of more rain...just to piss in everyone's cheerios a bit more. [/wishcast] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 Finally the Cape Verde season has produced a yellow (20%) and the wave in the northern Antilles is showing some convection. So far the canadian model is the only one that deveopes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 TD#5 - looks like a Carribean cruiser, but the Canadian model which was first global model to pick up on this storm has it heading more northerly over Shredola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 TD 5 needs to survive the graveyard before it gets pulled north. Might not even make it through today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Besides TD#5, check out the large wave just exiting Africa. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 7N TO 15N. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN LONG-TERM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE IT LEFT FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 the lack of posting by adam means to me this ts either has no intentions on making landfall in the US or if it does it will be a big pile poo when or if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 the lack of posting by adam means to me this ts either has no intentions on making landfall in the US or if it does it will be a big pile poo when or if it does. Or he is busy tuning up the flame thrower for the upcoming winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Or he is busy tuning up the flame thrower for the upcoming winter season. blasphemy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Or he is busy tuning up the flame thrower for the upcoming winter season. while you tune up your unused snowblower aha ah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 while you tune up your unused snowblower aha ah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 the lack of posting by adam means to me this ts either has no intentions on making landfall in the US or if it does it will be a big pile poo when or if it does. Correct Or he is busy tuning up the flame thrower for the upcoming winter season. Also, correct. TBH, I was really busy yesterday so I didn't get a chance to post anywhere. I've got Ernesto going into the BZ/MX border as a TS and then to Tampico as a TS/weak hurricane. The WPAC is getting really hot, but I don't think anyone cares about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Correct Also, correct. TBH, I was really busy yesterday so I didn't get a chance to post anywhere. I've got Ernesto going into the BZ/MX border as a TS and then to Tampico as a TS/weak hurricane. The WPAC is getting really hot, but I don't think anyone cares about that. I sort of do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Moving this reply here... What will be the best is when people are arguing that disorganized convection should/shouldn't get a name over the Bahamas. Then with the trough where it is, we'll get a bunch of people wishcasting it up the East Coast. *If only it were stronger* bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Also, invest 90L A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 152 NM SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 03/0600 UTC ANALYSIS. THE WAVE IS ALONG 14N23W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N24W. WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 24W-29W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 15N23W TO 11N23W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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