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Memorial Weekend Heat Wave


Hoosier

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Lake enhance OFB is quickly moving through SE. WI. High temps might end up cooler if it doesn't mix out soon.

RR is handling current temp trends well, but that might mean nothing if the OFB doesn't mix fast.

Entering far NE. IL now. Those that didn't want max heat potential in this area might luck out.

It's starting to mix out over Lake Co.

Looks like MKE will miss out on max heat potential...Only sitting at 66 as of 10AM.

ORD is 84 as of 10AM. 10/10 (OFB pending) would lead to a tie of the record for the date (94) and a miss of the all time May record high (98).

SQI, RPJ, PNT, IKK and RZL are up to 88. That corridor is the area to watch for near 100F potential...unless we see a large area magically mix as much as the RR/HRRR/RUC show.

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Not sure what to think ATM...Still comfortable outside..not even in the mid 70s..this warm front is a P.I.T.A

Also, the storms to the north are starting to produce a outflow...

Seems like heat rarely busts, but this front is quite a demarcation.

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This is crazy BS.

The one day we did get to 90*F was on Friday when we overachieved by nearly 10 degrees, with even cooler temps aloft than today.

Then yesterday, we just barely cracked 70*F (underachieving nearly 10*F) for storms that mainly impacted areas along/south of I-94, but otherwise startiform rains and convective debris.

Now today, when we're forecasted to hit 90*F, we're going to struggle to do so because of an outflow from storms 50 miles away (with no storm activity to show for it locally at that) and an east wind off the water.

I guess tomorrow the 90*F potntial will be ****ed up by t'storms popping up earlier than forecasted.

It is really 2010 all ove again...

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This is crazy BS.

The one day we did get to 90*F was on Friday when we overachieved by nearly 10 degrees, with even cooler temps aloft than today.

Then yesterday, we just barely cracked 70*F (underachieving nearly 10*F) for storms that mainly impacted areas along/south of I-94, but otherwise startiform rains and convective debris.

Now today, when we're forecasted to hit 90*F, we're going to struggle to do so because of an outflow from storms 50 miles away (with no storm activity to show for it locally at that) and an east wind off the water.

I guess tomorrow the 90*F potntial will be ****ed up by t'storms popping up earlier than forecasted.

It is really 2010 all ove again...

LOLOLOL...

I will have to agree with everything you just said!

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heh..DTX clearly stumped by this warm front

PREV DISCUSSION

ISSUED 352 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE

TRENDS/THE MIGRATION OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AND THROUGH

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. WHAT HAS MADE THE FORECAST SO DIFFICULT THE

PAST FEW DAYS IS THE SLABBED NATURE (IN THE VERTICAL) OF THE WARM

FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ALLOWS

FOR LITTLE TO NO UNDERSTANDING IN MIXING DEPTHS WHICH CAN LEAD TO

FORECAST BUSTS ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. TYPICALLY...THESE WARM FRONT

BOUNDARIES GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER AND CONGEAL AFTER A DIURNAL

HEATING CYCLE OR TWO..THIS ONE JUST DOES NOT WANT TO DO IT. HARD TO

DEFINITIVELY SAY WHAT IS GOING ON HERE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN HAS REMAINED JUST OUT OF REACH TO THE

PRIOR/EPISODIC LOW LEVEL JETLETS THAT HAVE BEEN FORMING. COULD JUST

BE A CONSEQUENCE OF THE VERY SLUGGISH/SLOW MOVING POTENTIAL

VORTICITY ANOMALY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

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It's up to 90 here.

DP's are starting to mix out a bit across N. IL/N. IN, with some upper 50's to low 60's showing up.

SQI is up to 93.

I went upper 90's at ORD but I'm not sure there's enough time to make it. What do you think?

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The hottest days I've experienced here; in the morning, the temperature is already at 90° by 11am or so. If the southerly flow doesn't increase pretty soon, I think it's going to top in the 80s someplace in this immediate area.

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