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Memorial Weekend Heat Wave


Hoosier

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Sunday will be a very warm day for many, likely the warmest of the year. Highs will be in the mid 90s throughout much of the midwest (see map). The warm up is due to a weakening storm system that will eventually become occluded on Sunday. As noted in the map on the left, there will be a very sharp cut off from the hot weather, to the comfortable temps in the 70s. It depends on where this front sets up during the afternoon on sunday as to who will be in the 90s and who will not.

For more click here

post-7560-0-03420800-1338009625_thumb.jp

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FWIW, it was the only model that had a clue on temps up here and in NW Ohio/Indiana today.

Maybe so but it seems too aggressive with surface temps given the airmass aloft. I would shave a few degrees where it's showing 100's.

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FWA dropped more than I thought, but still tied:

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

125 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT FORT WAYNE...

A RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 69 DEGREES WAS TIED AT FORT

WAYNE YESTERDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...THE 69 DEGREE READING TIED FOR THE

WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE EARLIER RECORD WAS

ESTABLISHED IN 1918.

Today's point is 93°, while the record is 95° (1911), probably safe unless we overperform like yesterday.

Tomorrow's point is now 97° for me :yikes:

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Point forecast dropped 1° ~ 94°. I think a lake breeze might be possible tomorrow, early before S winds ramp up.

Edit: Milwaukee has some new thoughts on tomorrow temperatures.

000

FXUS63 KMKX 262026

AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

326 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL

LIKELY MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH

THE COMPLEX GOES...AS IT HAS SLOWLY INCHED SOUTHWARD...BUT GENERALLY

MAINTAINED EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE

MAINLY NORTH OF A LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE LINE...THOUGH IT COULD DIP

A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCE FOR

STORMS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT

NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY OR MID SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT

GETS THROUGH...SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. LOOKS HOT

WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...WITH BIGGEST ISSUE WHETHER THE

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE

BREEZE OFFSHORE. MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR TEMPS TO GET INTO THE 90S FROM

MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD...BUT DO THINK WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO

EVENTUALLY PUSH THE HOT AIR TO THE LAKE. NORTH OF THERE...WENT A BIT

COOLER NEAR THE LAKE DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE GETTING

PUSHED OFFSHORE.

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I wouldn't be shocked if some isolated station hits 100 tomorrow but wouldn't expect it to be anything like the RUC.

Wonder why they're even still running the RUC. Is there a 24-hour version of the RAP (like there is for the RUC) somewhere out there?

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The past few runs of the NAM/GFS have been showing some precip around here tomorrow morning/early afternoon, which knocks a few degrees high temps. The ECMWF does not show this.

Given the horrible performance the past 24hrs, i'll believe it when I see it (precip).

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The RR is once again showing an area of 100+ 2M temps on Sun.

Unlike last nights runs that showed widespread 100's for Sat across MO/IL with high DP's and unfavorable thermal profiles, the runs tonight mix out DP's and have better thermal profiles. (Pocket of 22-25C at 850mb in the 100F+ 2M temp area)

FWIW...An area of SE. Missouri in the Rolla area did see temps around 100 today. RR meso-analysis had 850mb temps around 22C and decent mixing in this area.

Once again a case of "I'll believe it when I see it".

tempt22mf18.png

skewtilx74560f18.png

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The past few runs of the NAM/GFS have been showing some precip around here tomorrow morning/early afternoon, which knocks a few degrees high temps. The ECMWF does not show this.

Given the horrible performance the past 24hrs, i'll believe it when I see it (precip).

I wouldn't hold my breathe. I see what you mean though.

nam_namer_012_sim_radar.gif

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Whil the RR is scorching IL...it develops some showers in the morning for SEMI, the result being most of SEMI barely edging to 90*

So far, the RR way off.

It looks like we're going to get some hazy sunshine, at least to start off. We'll have to watch out for some stratocumulus development if nothing else.

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Lake enhance OFB is quickly moving through SE. WI. High temps might end up cooler if it doesn't mix out soon.

RR is handling current temp trends well, but that might mean nothing if the OFB doesn't mix fast.

Entering far NE. IL now. Those that didn't want max heat potential in this area might luck out.

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