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June 2012 Forecast Contest, Temperatures


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I was going to go slightly above average..... Instead going with warmer..

DCA: +4.5

NYC: +4.0

BOS: + 4.1

Total = +12.6

ACY: + 5.1 (home area - a tradition)

I'll see how this month goes before I do July... Last year, I went all out torch for that month.. I hope I don't go that high again.

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  • 2 weeks later...

With hot to record hot values expected for last three days, the 27-day values should get a last minute one degree inflation ...

DCA +0.4 (predicted finish +1.6)

NYC -1.2 (predicted finish 0.0)

BOS -1.7 (predicted finish -0.5)

Congratulations, HeatMiser, who has me closed out by 0.2 degrees, barring a volcano suddenly blotting out the sun in DC.

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The final values for DCA and NYC are

DCA ... +1.1

NYC ... -0.4

BOS has not been updated since the 26th (I reported the 26-day value in error above as 27 days). Would estimate that BOS finished around -1.0 as 27th was -2, 28th +3, 29th +6 and 30th +8. Previous raw anomaly about -46, so with these four days, -31 which rounds off to -1.0.

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The final values for DCA and NYC are

DCA ... +1.1

NYC ... -0.4

BOS has not been updated since the 26th (I reported the 26-day value in error above as 27 days). Would estimate that BOS finished around -0.7 as 29th +6 and 30th +8. Will try to obtain actual value.

Assuming BOS finishes at -0.7, HeatMiser finishes only 0.8 degrees off the three locations combined (0.4 -- DCA, 0.1 -- NYC, 0.3 -- BOS).

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Sorry, I edited my post since you typed that. BOS looks closer to -1.0.

If BOS finished at -1.0, HeatMiser nailed it, putting him only 0.5 degrees off the three locations combined. Quite a performance!*

* Which was obviously pure luck. Whereas, if I had done it, I would be seeking a Nobel prize

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If BOS finished at -1.0, HeatMiser nailed it, putting him only 0.5 degrees off the three locations combined. Quite a performance!*

* Which was obviously pure luck. Whereas, if I had done it, I would be seeking a Nobel prize

I will admit I was very nervous about my projection when the ridge the size of north america showed up...

If I get three in a row, I'll at least expect an americanwx ribbon or sash!

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I will admit I was very nervous about my projection when the ridge the size of north america showed up...

If I get three in a row, I'll at least expect an americanwx ribbon or sash!

Excellent job, HM. If you do as well next month, take note of the increased "cut, paste, slightly alter" method of forecasting! You might want to submit at 11:59 with armed body guards outside your house! ;)

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