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Beryl: landfall 70 mph Jax Bch 12:10 AM 5/28 TS warnings lifted S SC to N FL

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

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It's modeled to have a very tight core, so unless you are within 50 mi of the landfall point, I wouldn't expect more than .5-1" of rain, which is still needed.

May/June activity is uncorrelated to Aug/Sep/Oct activity.

I know, which is why I said it might not mean anything (as in probably won't) I've been around a while you know ;):P

That wasn't really my main point though, it's when was the last time have had 2 named storms before the start of the season? ( Which to me is impressive, regardless of how the rest of the season goes.) Anyone?

As for your other point, you are right. It's a tight system and combined with a less than stellar moist environment surrounding it, rainfall won't be huge very far from the center. My only point here was that for a tropical/subtropical system, which normally produces a fairly decent (to of course great at times) rainfall area, this one is going to be pretty dry. I do think areas close to the center will get more then 0.50 to 1 inch though but we'll see.

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Mencken_Fan

Mencken_Fan

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Good morning fellow Southeasterners. Stepping out to get my morning paper, it's quite evident we're under the influence of Beryl here on Cape Fear, N.C.

No, it's not storming -- but it's clearly not a normal morning either. Typically at 7:00 am the wind is about 5 mph or less but this morning there's a pleasant 15 mph breeze. But what really stands out is the sky. The first thing I noticed was the sky is full of those broken, light and dark milky colored ill-defined clouds -- and they're not just drifting, their moving. The sky looks like it's in a hurry to get somewhere!

Okay, that's it from here. Y'all have a great weekend; and I look forward to reports from others as the weekend progresses.

Tim in ILM

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jrips27

jrips27

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I am down near Amelia island this weekend. Lots of talk but so far still really nice outside lol. I wouldn't mind a storm hitting while I am already here but it's not looking too impressive at the moment

My cousins are at St. Simons Island this week. I'm pretty jealous of the forecast...

Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind 33 to 43 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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phil882

phil882

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That wasn't really my main point though, it's when was the last time have had 2 named storms before the start of the season? ( Which to me is impressive, regardless of how the rest of the season goes.) Anyone?

As for your other point, you are right. It's a tight system and combined with a less than stellar moist environment surrounding it, rainfall won't be huge very far from the center. My only point here was that for a tropical/subtropical system, which normally produces a fairly decent (to of course great at times) rainfall area, this one is going to be pretty dry. I do think areas close to the center will get more then 0.50 to 1 inch though but we'll see.

From what I was able to dig up, the last time this occur was way back in 1887... so yea its been a while.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1887/index.php

As for the second statement Adam made, I wouldn't go as far to say this system is very tight. There is quite a large wind swath forecasted from the ECMWF. Perhaps the other models have a different take, but this doesn't scream to me a small system. This is not that unusual considering the subtropical origin either.

20t1mde.png

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GaWx

GaWx

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Not much westward component of motion last five hours and little motion at all last few hours. Note the lack of surface high pressure to its north, which means not much westward steering at the lower levels right now. I'm wondering if the models are assuming too much west motion for today. I've seen this kind of thing in the past when surface high pressure to the north is pretty weak. Perhaps this will mean an overall slower movement toward the U.S. vs. the NHC track. We'll see.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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Not much westward component of motion last five hours and little motion at all last few hours. Note the lack of surface high pressure to its north, which means not much westward steering at the lower levels right now. I'm wondering if the models are assuming too much west motion for today. I've seen this kind of thing in the past when surface high pressure to the north is pretty weak. Perhaps this will mean an overall slower movement toward the U.S. vs. the NHC track. We'll see.

I still wouldn't rule out the idea of it never making shore...and with it being a skeleton anyway, it wouldn't be that big a deal anyway if it turns out.

The GFS IMO has a much better handle than the NAM.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Not much westward component of motion last five hours and little motion at all last few hours. Note the lack of surface high pressure to its north, which means not much westward steering at the lower levels right now. I'm wondering if the models are assuming too much west motion for today. I've seen this kind of thing in the past when surface high pressure to the north is pretty weak. Perhaps this will mean an overall slower movement toward the U.S. vs. the NHC track. We'll see.

It could be that with all the convection on the east side of the center is being is what is causing it to be slowed or even tugged a bit in that direction so it could be that you are correct IRT timing as these little nuances are really hard to predict in weaker storms. Makes me wonder if maybe it hugs the coast and or just gets inland and doesnt make it as far south as north Florida.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Beryl is beginning to wrap the storms around its center and it appears to be moving again but with the storms wrapping the center its kinda hard to tell. I have trouble seeing this make it as far SW as the current NHC track has it at, if anything it looks to be moving due west albeit really slowly. Prolly gonna be TS Beryl at 5 instead of STS Beryl I would think, maybe see winds increased to 50 in light of the storms around the center.

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MJW155

MJW155

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I came up to Atlantic Beach for the weekend. I'll be here until Monday, maybe Tuesday.

Tomorrow's forecast. Should be fun!

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. North wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 75. North wind 34 to 44 mph becoming south. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

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Lookout

Lookout

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From what I was able to dig up, the last time this occur was way back in 1887... so yea its been a while.

http://weather.unisy.../1887/index.php

As for the second statement Adam made, I wouldn't go as far to say this system is very tight. There is quite a large wind swath forecasted from the ECMWF. Perhaps the other models have a different take, but this doesn't scream to me a small system. This is not that unusual considering the subtropical origin either.

20t1mde.png

Thanks so much for the info! :) No wonder I couldn't remember :lmao:

I think he was referring more to the rainfall than the wind field...that's what my impression was anyway.

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GaWx

GaWx

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The skies here in Savannah have a cool prestorm look with low clouds moving pretty fast to the SW. Winds have been increasing and have been gusty. No rain yet. I'm expecting intermittent showers through the day.

Beryl looks like it may be picking up some strength based on satellite loops. Convection has increased near the symmetric circ. center as it travels over 82+ SST's with low shear.

Good vis satellite loop:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Center still pretty broad and the convection isnt tight around the "center" so its still a bit of a hybrid and prolly why the NHC kept it a STS at 11. This is the buoy to watch http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41012 the center should pass pretty close to it and it has gusted to the 42 knts and the center of Beryl is only 48 miles away to the east of it...another thing to keep in mind is that sometimes systems like this will actually tighen up and get a bit stronger after land interaction, not saying this one will but it wouldnt surprise me. So there could end up being a period of wind strong enough to actually cause a few issues with power etc maybe even a ways inland if the storm does tighten up and hold its own once the center is over land.

Hopefully it puts down some decent rain totals but even with the flareup on sat the radar still looks meh as far as rain goes...

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phil882

phil882

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Afternoon update on Beryl... I'm thinking 60-70 mph for max intensity. The biggest threat is certainly still Flooding Rainfall.

http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/05/27/beryl-transitioning-into-to-a-tropical-cyclone-will-make-landfall-in-the-southeast-united-states-tonight/

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