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Beryl: landfall 70 mph Jax Bch 12:10 AM 5/28 TS warnings lifted S SC to N FL

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

94L could make for very interesting wx for part of the SE US coast this weekend. I found a halfway decent analog to which I'll compare and contrast:

Here's a late May STS from 1972, Alpha, that was moving NE but got blocked and backed westward into the SE coast:

http://weather.unisy...ALPHA/track.gif

Go here for the daily wx maps for the week of 5/22-28/1972:

http://docs.lib.noaa...ather_maps.html

1) Alpha was ST rather than tropical. The dewpoints were only in the 50's along the SE coast in advance of its arrival. In contrast, TD's are forecasted this weekend to be about 10 F warmer (near the mid 60's.). So, that would tend to favor more tropical for 94L than Alpha.

2) For Alpha, the lowest SLP then was pretty impressive, about 991 mb at landfall. Highest winds were 60 knots. it landfalled at ~50 knots. 94L's lowest SLP is progged to be a good bit higher (1,000-1,009 mb).

3) For Alpha, the blocking 500 mb high was NNW of the storm, allowing for almost due west motion into the coast. The currently progged blocking 500 mb high is NW of the storm, favoring WSW motion into the coast.

4) Alpha had a chilly 1032 mb sfc high over the NE US., which allowed for pretty fast motion westward into the coast, a feed of cool, dry air just to its north, and a tight pressure gradient. The current setup has no big, chilly surface high. Instead, highest SLP's to the north are only in the 1020's and the high isn't cold at all. So, this means no big feed of cool, dry air (more tropical opportunities vs. 1972), a slower motion toward the coast, and a looser pressure gradient (not as high winds) unless tropical development is much stronger than progged.

post-882-0-03880700-1337875914_thumb.gif

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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So you think this could bring a lot of rain to the Atlanta-Birmingham area ?

That's still a big question mark in regards to early/middle next week. The models all insist that what ever forms could make a landfall anywhere from JAX to SAV. GFS wants to bring the remnant low across the Florda Panhandle which would be excellent for that area and the Southern half of Georgia...

I think Birmingham is too far west, Atlanta may be too far North but this air mass could interact with trough that's coming through mid week. I wouldn't even rule out the actual remnant low coming North but that's still the big question at this point...

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

When you look at those plots you realize just how far forecasting has come. :icecream:

Thanks for that, lol. When I get my beverage coming out my nose, and onto the keyboard, it tingles :)

I favor the backing into Ga. and on into Ala., gets cut off, and wanders around Ga. for days scenario! Tony

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Sunny and Warm

Sunny and Warm

Posted
Posted

As much as the models are indicating that this storm will retrograde back to the coast, it comes to my mind that about 9 out of 10 times, these types of storm never do make it...

Alberto made it back just last week. You must be thinking about extratropical systems, where I'll grant you that models overdo retrogrades it seems. But tropical systems are different animals. I will be surprised if this doesn't make it to the coast.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Models are very dry with this thing considering it's a tropical(or subtropical) system, unfortunately. So it would seem unless you are very close by to the center, you won't get the soaking rains.

That said, when was the last time we had TWO named storms before June 1st? I don't remember that happening before, although I am no where near the historical geniuses than folks like Larry and other tropical folks are. This could have been talked about already in the main board section but I actually rarely go there anymore (lol) since all I need to know most of the time is right here, not to mention the number of great folks.

Then you have the earliest major cane in the eastern pacific ever and you have to wonder what and how bad (well good for us weenies) the season will be. Of course it could mean absolutely nothing. But 2 named storms before the official start of the season is impressive.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
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Models are very dry with this thing considering it's a tropical(or subtropical) system, unfortunately. So it would seem unless you are very close by to the center, you won't get the soaking rains.

That said, when was the last time we had TWO named storms before June 1st? I don't remember that happening before, although I am no where near the historical geniuses than folks like Larry and other tropical folks are. This could have been talked about already in the main board section but I actually rarely go there anymore (lol) since all I need to know most of the time is right here, not to mention the number of great folks.

Then you have the earliest major cane in the eastern pacific ever and you have to wonder what and how bad (well good for us weenies) the season will be. Of course it could mean absolutely nothing. But 2 named storms before the official start of the season is impressive.

Puts us in par well ahead of the 2005 season if we get this second named system in May.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Models are very dry with this thing considering it's a tropical(or subtropical) system, unfortunately. So it would seem unless you are very close by to the center, you won't get the soaking rains.

That said, when was the last time we had TWO named storms before June 1st? I don't remember that happening before, although I am no where near the historical geniuses than folks like Larry and other tropical folks are. This could have been talked about already in the main board section but I actually rarely go there anymore (lol) since all I need to know most of the time is right here, not to mention the number of great folks.

Then you have the earliest major cane in the eastern pacific ever and you have to wonder what and how bad (well good for us weenies) the season will be. Of course it could mean absolutely nothing. But 2 named storms before the official start of the season is impressive.

It's modeled to have a very tight core, so unless you are within 50 mi of the landfall point, I wouldn't expect more than .5-1" of rain, which is still needed.

May/June activity is uncorrelated to Aug/Sep/Oct activity.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Wunderground NWS forecast for here.

Sunday

Very windy. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night

Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening...then chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 35 to 40 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

os95rk.jpg

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

This is still looking like some nice rain potential for Southern GA and North Florida...I've also noticed that the 700mb RH was significantly higher in the Carolinas on tonight's NAM and GFS...but still paltry on QPF.

I'm thinking we may get an easterly push to the North of Beryl on Sunday/Monday. There should be quite a bit of moisture available for any daytime heating away from the tight core of Beryl.

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