Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 That's a good group who made that call... FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 noob question...but Beryl has been referred to thus far as sub-tropical...if it reaches hurricane strength is it automatically tropical, or would it be sub-tropical hurricane beryl? The NHC removed the sub-tropical classification earlier today, it is now a fully tropical system at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The 8 pm EDT advisory puts it at 60 kt and says any additional organization will make it a Cat 1. So, if the radar presentation improves in the next few hours, we have a hurricane. The center is still several hours offshore. Shouldn't a hurricane warning be issued since it's so close to the threshold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 No she's gone totally trop. They wouldn't classify her as ST-Hurricane Beryl, just Hurricane Beryl. The NHC removed the sub-tropical classification earlier today, it is now a fully tropical system at this point! thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 winds have died off a lot here. calm before the feature presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 80kt flight level, though not in convection so no high corresponding SFMR value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 80kt flight level, though not in convection so no high corresponding SFMR value Even with an 80% reduction that's 64 knots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Not even June and two tropical systems already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Not even June and two tropical systems already. And one of those a possible hurricane in Beryl, its not even hurricane season yet and we have had a couple of good looking tropical storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Recon has left the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Final VDM... Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 00:15Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2012 Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 16 A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 23:38:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30°12'N 80°37'W (30.2N 80.6167W) B. Center Fix Location: 63 miles (101 km) to the E (98°) from Jacksonville, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,353m (4,439ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the SSE/S (169°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 249° at 58kts (From the WSW at ~ 66.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the S (172°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open from the northwest to the northeast M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Wind Outbound: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:51:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:51:30Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NNW (330°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 80 KT NW QUAD 23:51:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow. Conditions deteriorating here south of dtown ja rapidly now. Winds really picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 And now pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow. Conditions deteriorating here south of dtown ja rapidly now. Winds really picking up Woo hoo! Hope ya get raked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow, it's awesome out here. I can't even imagine what a Cat 2 or 3 cane would be like. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 And one of those a possible hurricane in Beryl, its not even hurricane season yet and we have had a couple of good looking tropical storms They both really came from the same upper trough that has sat off the East Coast, over Cuba, and into the Caribbean for weeks. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 They both really came from the same upper trough that has sat off the East Coast, over Cuba, and into the Caribbean for weeks. Amazing. At the time I thought, "wait, is this still Alberto?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Woo hoo! Hope ya get raked! Thanks, lots of Hurricane parties goin on. People taking full advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Took this from my hotel room. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uamAxrY6a88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Pushed out another update, http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm2.htm tracking St Augustine, Mayport NS, Jacksonville, with rain accum of .6 to.75 over next few hours, with winds 25-35 gusts up 42mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Shouldn't a hurricane warning be issued since it's so close to the threshold? I've seen before 70 mph tropical storms nearing landfall not have hurricane warnings with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 80 KT NW QUAD 23:51:30Z It will be interesting to see if Beryl is ultimately upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane (but possibly in the end-of-season analysis?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I drove from Brunswick ot S florida earlier today. Judging from the amount of public utility and tree repair trucks that we passed heading north they are apparently expecting the worst in N Fl and S Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 No bus service for JTA at beaches tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I've seen before 70 mph tropical storms nearing landfall not have hurricane warnings with them. There's no real core with the storm so all the winds are going to be coming from this band making landfall in northern Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yea weather is really going downhill. Torrential rain and strong winds. I see people looking at me through their windows like I'm a jackass. lol. I don't care. This is fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I really don't think we'll see a gust on land higher than 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 There's no real core with the storm so all the winds are going to be coming from this band making landfall in northern Florida. Huh? There's an inner band that's still well offshore. You can't make an assumption that the higher winds are in that outer band unless you have some recon data to support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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