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Beryl now TD; Landfall 70 mph Jax Bch 12:10 AM 5/28.; TS warnings lifted for S SC to NE FL


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I personally wouldn't be suprised if recon foud a hurricane, and I do believe that as a proactive thing the NHC could hoist a hurricane warning from Jacksonville to Daytona Beach

If that was (is) the case, your warning would be too far south, and not far enough north, given the structure of the system. Current surface obs show the strongest sustained winds are 20-30kt along the northeast coast (Heck, KDAB is currently 27008kt and the center is only about 100NM NE of them) and 35-40KT over water. Winds are surely stronger in the convective band on the N-E quadrants, given the satellite signature and doppler velocity. The 75KT doppler BVEL at 8KFT probably represents the strongest wind GUSTS anyhere in the storm.

My take is we're probably looking at a storm about to peak just below 'cane strength....60kt.

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Peak of 73kt at 850mb in the NW quad, 993.5mb extrap

SFMR was 58-62kt for a few observations, however these observations were with >40mm/hr convection.

Looks like we are probably goig up to 60 kts at 8pm intermediate advisory. Will be interesting to see if highs winds exist in NE Quad like in the last few passes.

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Guy is calling it a strengthening cat 1 and is saying he is worried he will be trapped in the city what a clown.

What a moron. "We're approaching a heavy squall, I hope I don't get hit by a tree!" 30 seconds later with no visible wind blowing through the trees: "Squall is decreasing". Stupid, but I can't stop laughing. He's the Kige Ramsey of storm chasing.

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Peak of 73kt at 850mb in the NW quad, 993.5mb extrap

SFMR was 58-62kt for a few observations, however these observations were with >40mm/hr convection.

If you look at the scaler that I posted earlier on this page, that makes perfect sense 73 kts at 1500m bringing it down using the eyewall line (convective) it comes out to 60.4 kts.

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It will be very interesting to hear/see the reports as the partial eyewall structure moves onshore. Wind gusts of 38 mph are already being observed across the Jackonville metro area even though the eyewall is a ways away. Starting to look like all of Jacksonville may face the brunt of this since the eyewall is wrapping around to the south.

JAX_loop.gif

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Radar does show this storm has a nicer structure than Irene. Most of the energy is concentrated in the eyewall which wants to close off. So I'd call this a premature landfall FTL. However this could be a warning sign that the SE coast will be a hotspot this season and FL has an above average chance of getting hit this year despite NHCs quite year prediction.

JAX_loop.gif

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Number 9...good indicator of a strengthening cyclone...if that stronger piece of convection can wrap around all the way, this thing can make it to 65-70kts...also, we can see friction induced tightening during landfall.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 272151

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012

A. 27/21:16:00Z

B. 30 deg 03 min N

080 deg 18 min W

C. 850 mb 1358 m

D. 62 kt

E. 295 deg 24 nm

F. 016 deg 73 kt

G. 294 deg 27 nm

H. 993 mb

I. 12 C / 1526 m

J. 19 C / 1527 m

K. 13 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF308 0302A BERYL OB 06

MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 21:07:30Z

;

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85 kt winds at 1800 m being detected by Jacksonville radar in the eyewall. Starting to think this could be declared a hurricane by the evening. The tree damage from the constant winds and rain is gonna be the big story here. All the trees there are way older and bigger than they should be.

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85 kt winds at 1800 m being detected by Jacksonville radar in the eyewall. Starting to think this could be declared a hurricane by the evening. The tree damage from the constant winds and rain is gonna be the big story here. All the trees there are way older and bigger than they should be.

Yep...TS wind radii is rather big...and there are a lot of big trees around the Jax area.

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Stronger wind reports starting to roll in. I wonder what the pier is measuring now since it was gusting to 55 mph hours ago. http://www.nws.noaa....d=LSR&node=KJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

608 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0454 PM TROPICAL STORM 42 ENE ST. AUGUSTINE BE 30.00N 80.60W

05/27/2012 AMZ472 XX BUOY

A TROPICAL STORM FORCE PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH WAS

RECORDED AT BUOY 41012. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS WERE MEASURED

AT 51 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE WAS AT 994 MB.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

529 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0304 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ST. SIMONS 31.18N 81.38W

05/27/2012 M43 MPH GLYNN GA ASOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

414 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0313 PM TROPICAL STORM NW PALM COAST 29.58N 81.22W

05/27/2012 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES ON FOREST HILL DRIVE IN PALM

COAST. FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT AND FIRE DEPARTMENT ON THE

SCENE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

336 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0315 PM TROPICAL STORM JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W

05/27/2012 DUVAL FL MESONET

JAX BEACH PIER REPORTED WINDS AT 35 MPH GUSTING TO 55

MPH.

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85 kt winds at 1800 m being detected by Jacksonville radar in the eyewall. Starting to think this could be declared a hurricane by the evening. The tree damage from the constant winds and rain is gonna be the big story here. All the trees there are way older and bigger than they should be.

Fay produced a decent amount of tree damage when I was there for her in 08.

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