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Beryl now TD; Landfall 70 mph Jax Bch 12:10 AM 5/28.; TS warnings lifted for S SC to NE FL


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Well I just made a post update to my blog... just saw that they dropped the subtropical storm classification. I actually think the HRRR has a good handle on the forecast track, as this should continue to move westward until making landfall, although the model is likely too fast (by around 4-6 hours). The radar reflectivity suggests that Beryl is trying to develop an eyewall, although still quite ragged.

http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2012/05/27/beryl-transitioning-into-to-a-tropical-cyclone-will-make-landfall-in-the-southeast-united-states-tonight/

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I just got back from the beach. (Neptune Beach) Surf is rough and the water is reaching the sand dunes. The lifeguard chairs are under water. Not sure why they didn't move them? Don't know how strong the wind is, probably about 30 mph? Really cool watching the sand blow around. Reminds me of drifting snow during a blizzard. The wind dies down as soon as you get off the beach though. No rain yet either.

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This storm is certainly getting better organized. These broken bands have evolved in what looks to be a developing partial eyewall. While I still think its unlikely Beryl can become a hurricane due the cooler shelf waters its yet to traverse, its looks rather impressive right now. Unfortunately we won't have recon again in the system before landfall, so radar estimated winds are the best we will have to do.

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This storm is certainly getting better organized. These broken bands have evolved in what looks to be a developing partial eyewall. While I still think its unlikely Beryl can become a hurricane due the cooler shelf waters its yet to traverse, its looks rather impressive right now. Unfortunately we won't have recon again in the system before landfall, so radar estimated winds are the best we will have to do.

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That convection on the SW Quadrant burst quite nicely then fizzled. Have to wonder how much the cooler SST's had to do with it.

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This buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012 is getting pretty close to the center

B 1950 30.04 -80.53 33 264 340 35.0 46.6 14.1 10 6.5 27 29.51 -0.11 74.8 77.4 71.8 - -

According to this at 1950 Zulu the center was 33 miles from the buoy.....which is sustained at 35 knts gusting to 46.6 knts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at2

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Beryl is still lacking deep convection and is running out of time before making landfall. Unless RECON finds something very impressive on the center pass, I suspect that it will remain a TS. We will see.

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