hckyplayer8 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 No swimming allowed anymore on Horry County beaches because of rip currents from Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Recon's first pass reveals Beryl might be slightly stronger than the most recent advisory... 55 knot flight level winds @ 960 hPa and 45 knot SFMR although this was likely rain contaminated. Minimum central pressure is at 999 hPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Models are now trending to where the system parallels the shoreline after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Although there's still a complete lack of convection near the center of the circulation, convection slightly farther from the center has filled in nearly all the way around the system for the first time, which makes sense given the reduction in shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Although there's still a complete lack of convection near the center of the circulation, convection slightly farther from the center has filled in nearly all the way around the system for the first time, which makes sense given the reduction in shear. do you think it will increase in intensity(even slightly) before landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 22:39Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2012 Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:14:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°14'N 76°44'W (31.2333N 76.7333W) B. Center Fix Location: 212 miles (341 km) to the SE (144°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 52kts (From the NE at ~ 59.8mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 367m (1,204ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 365m (1,198ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:55:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:36:30Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SPIRAL BANDING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Looking a little stronger than this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Nice circulation in a low TPW environment with a lack of conveection. We saw several of these last year. However Nichole 2010 and Lee 2011 were STS's that had a lot more convection and precip than this, hence were at least trackable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Choked off that dry air feed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Can definitely see the building blocks for a decent trop storm on IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 do you think it will increase in intensity(even slightly) before landfall? I think it will come down to what happens with tonight's diurnal maximum, and whether or not any sustained deep convection fires closer to the center of circulation. If that happens, intensity could increase by maybe 10 kts before landfall, but I'd give it about a 1 in 3 chance of occurring at this point. Otherwise, just expect ~5 kt fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I think it is fairly close to tropical now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 What a depressing system. SST's are too low now to support strengthening even as the STS parallels the coastline after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Does anyone know what the record is for most number of named storms in the Atlantic before the official start of the season? Wikipedia says this is the first time since 1908 that we've had two named storms before June 1... but is two the record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 That's tight. hahaha...j/k! I just like to publicly humiliate pathetic storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 The skies here in Savannah have a cool prestorm look with low clouds moving pretty fast to the SW. Winds have been increasing and have been gusty. No rain yet. I'm expecting intermittent showers through the day here on the north side of the storm. Beryl looks like it may be picking up some strength based on satellite loops. Convection has increased near the symmetric circ. center as it travels over 82+ SST's with low shear. Good vis satellite loop: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&isingle=multiple&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Does anyone know what the record is for most number of named storms in the Atlantic before the official start of the season? Wikipedia says this is the first time since 1908 that we've had two named storms before June 1... but is two the record? Yep, shared with 1887 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Clouds spinnin already here in Avondale area of Jax out NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 any readings from the recon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 any readings from the recon? Recon recently found 65 knot highest flight level winds. So, it appears that an increase to ~60 mph will be noted in the 11 AM advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I would be surprised if the NHC doesn't drop the sub-tropical reference with the upcoming advisory. Probably looking the best on satellite, that it has at any other point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 any readings from the recon? URNT12 KNHC 271344 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022012 A. 27/13:27:10Z B. 30 deg 08 min N 079 deg 18 min W C. 850 mb 1410 m D. 50 kt E. 054 deg 40 nm F. 120 deg 65 kt G. 054 deg 47 nm H. 999 mb I. 15 C / 1418 m J. 17 C / 1524 m K. 13 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1234 / 8 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF308 0202A BERYL OB 07 MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 13:12:30Z http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 That's honestly not a terrible looking ts. I've seen some cat 1's that look more pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The thing is, is there enough convection to bring those increased flight level winds down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The skies here in Savannah have a cool prestorm look with low clouds moving pretty fast to the SW. Winds have been increasing and have been gusty. No rain yet. I'm expecting intermittent showers through the day here on the north side of the storm. Beryl looks like it may be picking up some strength based on satellite loops. Convection has increased near the symmetric circ. center as it travels over 82+ SST's with low shear. Good vis satellite loop: http://aviationweath...tiple&itype=vis Where are you getting that high of SST from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 Where are you getting that high of SST from? The Gulf stream SST's, which are warmer than surrounding areas, have been noted as being near 28 C or 82.4 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 That's tight. hahaha...j/k! I just like to publicly humiliate pathetic storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Throw out the 12z NAM, even with the 4km nest it initialized as 1010 with 30 kt winds and limited convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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