Ed Lizard Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Home made NASA flavored visible floater of 94L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Looks like we have another 12 - 18 hour to go before classification. You can see the surface circulation on visible imagery is just starting to make the left hand turn as it starts to interact with the upper level disturbance more fully. As this upper level trough cuts off, we should see 94L merge with the disturbance and that event will probably mark when genesis occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 NHC says that 6-20 inches of rain have fallen across different parts of central Cuba, contributing to flooding and mudslides. 9.7 inches of rain in Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 NHC says that 6-20 inches of rain have fallen across different parts of central Cuba, contributing to flooding and mudslides. 9.7 inches of rain in Freeport. Wow that is impressive, but how does NHC get that information if diplomatic relations with Cuba are so frosty? Not trying to question the validity, just wondering how the information gets through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wow that is impressive, but how does NHC get that information if diplomatic relations with Cuba are so frosty? Not trying to question the validity, just wondering how the information gets through. Scientific relations between the two countries are actually pretty good. Cuba even lets us invade their airspace occasionally with the Hurricane Hunters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Scientific relations between the two countries are actually pretty good. Cuba even lets us invade their airspace occasionally with the Hurricane Hunters Charley was the first storm I can remember Cuba letting the USAFR hurricane hunters fly in Cuban airspace. I don't know what changed, but remembered being blown away by the lat/long in the RECCO ob. Prior to that, Cuba would allow the civilian NOAA WP-3Ds to fly missions in Cuban airspace, I guess because they aren't military. Chavez in Venezuela has taken to being a d*ck about Hurricane Hunter missions near Venezuela. May have been Ivan, can't remember last storm that tracked close enough to Venezuela to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Up to 80% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Charley was the first storm I can remember Cuba letting the USAFR hurricane hunters fly in Cuban airspace. Actually the first time was during Hurricane Georges in 1998 when 2 WP-3's and a G-IV were allowed to fly over Cuban airspace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Actually the first time was during Hurricane Georges in 1998 when 2 WP-3's and a G-IV were allowed to fly over Cuban airspace. Left out of quote.... Prior to that, Cuba would allow the civilian NOAA WP-3Ds to fly missions in Cuban airspace, I guess because they aren't military. If you quoted (or bothered to read) the whole comment, you'd notice I mentioned USAFR WC-130s, and very specifically mentioned NOAA WP-3Ds being allowed to enter Cuban airspace. And I'll repeat, the first time I recall a United States Air Force (ie, US military) plane in Cuban airspace was Charley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Chavez in Venezuela has taken to being a d*ck about Hurricane Hunter missions near Venezuela. May have been Ivan, can't remember last storm that tracked close enough to Venezuela to matter. Venezuela was also keen on preventing any PREDICT G-IV missions from entered their airspace, which resulted in some unconventional flight patterns for pre-Karl and pre-Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Just a little nugget since recon and Cuba is being discussed. The first actual 'recon' flight was flown out of Cuba by an American flight instructor for the Cuban AF. Needed to confirm where the Labor Day Hurricane was since it was initally forecasted to hit Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Charley was the first storm I can remember Cuba letting the USAFR hurricane hunters fly in Cuban airspace. I don't know what changed, but remembered being blown away by the lat/long in the RECCO ob. Prior to that, Cuba would allow the civilian NOAA WP-3Ds to fly missions in Cuban airspace, I guess because they aren't military. Chavez in Venezuela has taken to being a d*ck about Hurricane Hunter missions near Venezuela. May have been Ivan, can't remember last storm that tracked close enough to Venezuela to matter. Are you onboard with this storm yet? inquiring minds need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Now with every frame the circulation is becoming more evident on visible. Pressures have also lowered quite significantly as well in the area over the past six hours. The current 10m wind analysis also shows that the western portion of the circulation is really starting to wrap around as the system interacts with an upper-level feature (as Phil previously mentioned) Could see this being tagged by early tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 18z ATCF AL, 94, 2012052518, , BEST, 0, 312N, 752W, 35, 1009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 This will probably be Beryl tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 18z GFS looks to bring it into JAX on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 18z coordinates look to have fixed the botched 12z center fix. Should see a southerly shift with the 18z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Very impressive readings at this buoy. 33 knot winds with a 1006mb pressure. PT is falling rapidly, so the pressure may be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Very impressive readings at this buoy. 33 knot winds with a 1006mb pressure. PT is falling rapidly, so the pressure may be lower. Wouldn't be surprised to see 94l get her act together tonight fairly rapidly. Although it looks like the models are seeing a fairly tight system, won't see many big rainfall totals unless you are close to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Now we have a ship reporting 43 mph winds on the NW side! This one's in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Are you onboard with this storm yet? inquiring minds need to know. I guess so. Normally a 40 knot-ish STS would be completely "meh", but pre-season, and a 3 day holiday weekend landfall, I'm mildly interested. Euro has been generally consistent, so I guess so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Even the cr@ppy OSCAT caught the circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Now we have a ship reporting 43 mph winds on the NW side! This one's in a hurry. I'm always weary of ship obs., especially their wind readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I'd say 90-100% by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 SST anomalies are above normal for this area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Pressure bottomed out around 1004mbs with a 23 knot wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Storms popping over the center now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Joe Bastardi is already calling this a tropical storm. looks like we might get a name anytime now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Joe Bastardi is already calling this a tropical storm. looks like we might get a name anytime now! Trusting Bastardi is a big no-no. Especially in the tropics. LLC is under the convection already. Very impressive for how this looked 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 looks good to go right now.....name it .....it's a holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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