HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Humberto seems to be the exception, as far as the NHC deciding on whether or not to pull the 'cane trigger for a system at landfall. I think Humberto was also unusual in that it was plainly obvious it was strengthening even beyond the 60/65kt borderline area. Cases in the past 10 years where the NHC did *not* upgrade 60kt TSs approaching land to hurricanes operationally (rightly or wrongly): Barry 2001 (FL) Chantal 2001 (Belize) Gabrielle 2001 (FL) Erika 2003 (MX -- upgraded post-analysis) Gaston 2004 (SC -- upgraded post-analysis) Cindy 2005 (LA -- upgraded post-analysis) Ernesto 2006 (NC) Hanna 2008 (NC) Beryl 2012 (FL) Other than Humberto, the only other case I can think of in recent times when the NHC made a last-minute upgrade to 'cane status is Ida 2009 (Nicaragua). So I guess it happens, but it's not nearly as common as holding back. Good post, and thanks for compiling this list of borderline landfalls. I hear ya-- that Humberto was the exception. It seems that borderline upgrades are, indeed, more often handled in postanalysis. Fay 2008 was another interesting example. While it landfalled at 55 kt, the peak intensity of 60 kt was reached almost 10 hr *after* landfall, as the cyclone was traversing the swamps of S FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Humberto seems to be the exception, as far as the NHC deciding on whether or not to pull the 'cane trigger for a system at landfall. I think Humberto was also unusual in that it was plainly obvious it was strengthening even beyond the 60/65kt borderline area. Cases in the past 10 years where the NHC did *not* upgrade 60kt TSs approaching land to hurricanes operationally (rightly or wrongly): Barry 2001 (FL) Chantal 2001 (Belize) Gabrielle 2001 (FL) Erika 2003 (MX -- upgraded post-analysis) Gaston 2004 (SC -- upgraded post-analysis) Cindy 2005 (LA -- upgraded post-analysis) Ernesto 2006 (NC) Hanna 2008 (NC) Beryl 2012 (FL) Other than Humberto, the only other case I can think of in recent times when the NHC made a last-minute upgrade to 'cane status is Ida 2009 (Nicaragua). So I guess it happens, but it's not nearly as common as holding back. Ernesto 2006 was a superb Tropical Storm. He arrived in the evening with non-stop heavy rains and high winds. I saw plenty of blue flashes from transformers blowing in the distance and eventually mine went too. The storm raged late into the night until it suddenly halted as the eye passed directly over Cape Fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Landfall at 4:00z (Midnight Local) near Atlantic Beach, FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclogent Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I believe the last May hurricane was Allison in 1995. Allison was a June Hurricane... the last hurricane in the Atlantic basin that reached Hurricane strength in May was Alma in 1970. I was out for most of the evening, but Beryl had a pretty impressive run, especially considering the last 6 or so hours it was traveling over the cooler shelf waters right near the Jacksonville, FL coastline. That probably cost is that last push it needed to reach hurricane strength, as the convection in the evening was significantly weaker than what we saw during the first 3/4ths of the day. Needless to say though, very impressive tropical transition event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Also worth sharing, GOES 13 was in rapid scan observations today. Here is a nice visible loop of Beryl today. Apologies in advanced, the file is rather large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Hurricane or not, even if we assume a very low estimate of 50kt max sustained winds at landfall...Beryl is the strongest recorded TC to hit the US in May since 1908. In 104 years. If it truly is a 60kt (or higher) landfall, it is the strongest US May hit on record (since HURDAT considers the 1908 storm a 55kt hit). In the satellite era, the only system that really even compares to Beryl is Alpha of 1972, which hit GA as a 45kt subtropical storm. Any way you put it, this is a rare breed. According to reanalysis, the 1908 storm was a 65kt cat 1 hit in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 According to reanalysis, the 1908 storm was a 65kt cat 1 hit in NC It was a 65kt cane when it hit, but this HRD page seems to count it as a 55kt impact since the stronger winds were offshore. http://www.aoml.noaa...Hurricanes.html & - Indicates that the hurricane center did make a direct landfall, but that the strongest winds likely remained offshore. Thus the winds indicated here are lower than in HURDAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If you guys want to believe the ECMWF... here is where Beryl is in 150 hours, still a tropical cyclone (given the warm bulge in the 1000-500 hPa thickness). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good post, and thanks for compiling this list of borderline landfalls. I hear ya-- that Humberto was the exception. It seems that borderline upgrades are, indeed, more often handled in postanalysis. Fay 2008 was another interesting example. While it landfalled at 55 kt, the peak intensity of 60 kt was reached almost 10 hr *after* landfall, as the cyclone was traversing the swamps of S FL. Yeah I remember that one well. Although operationally it was kept at 55kt. Also to add to my previous post, I actually forgot another recent example of the NHC upgrading right at landfall: Katrina in FL (rather glaring oversight, I know). Of course, it might not be totally comparable since it was clearly only a matter of time before it became a hurricane anyway. And it still doesn't change the fact that the NHC holds the status quo much more often than they pull the trigger in these border cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 It was a 65kt cane when it hit, but this HRD page seems to count it as a 55kt impact since the stronger winds were offshore. http://www.aoml.noaa...Hurricanes.html & - Indicates that the hurricane center did make a direct landfall, but that the strongest winds likely remained offshore. Thus the winds indicated here are lower than in HURDAT. You sure are up on your reanalysis fine points-- my kinda friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 05Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Lost power at 10:15 for 2 hours. Heard it made landfall at midnight at Altantic Beach. My first storm chase and I made it! Happy about that. No way were winds 70 mph sustained. Maybe 60. But we all know the backside is the stronger side, so we'll see. I was definately in the eye. Winds have been calm for the past 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 looking at radar, i should get the backside in the next 45 min or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 You sure are up on your reanalysis fine points-- my kinda friend. It's certainly helpful data to refer to or know, especially during unusual events like Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Ernesto 2006 was a superb Tropical Storm. He arrived in the evening with non-stop heavy rains and high winds. I saw plenty of blue flashes from transformers blowing in the distance and eventually mine went too. The storm raged late into the night until it suddenly halted as the eye passed directly over Cape Fear. I remember Ernesto. My mom drove through a flooded road and had her car totalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Winds definatetly shifting. Was calm for the past hour and now starting to pick up from the south. Next 3 hours should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 TS Beryl didn't look very menacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If the May 1908 storm was not a direct landfall that would make Beryl the strongest landfalling storm to hit the US in May. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 TS Beryl didn't look very menacing. Kid, knock it off. LOL. It's May for chrissakes. I lost power for over 3 hours today and the backside of the storm is just starting to fill in. Top winds so far have been in the 60-70 mph range. Won't be surprised if I get hurricane gusts in the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Landfall at 4:00z (Midnight Local) near Atlantic Beach, FL Nice! My first storm chase and I choosed to stay at a hotel in Atlantic Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Kid, knock it off. LOL. It's May for chrissakes. I lost power for over 3 hours today and the backside of the storm is just starting to fill in. Top winds so far have been in the 60-70 mph range. Won't be surprised if I get hurricane gusts in the next hour or two. I fear for when you get a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I fear for when you get a hurricane. LOL. You are so wise. Sorry I doubted you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Nice! My first storm chase and I choosed to stay at a hotel in Atlantic Beach. Awesome. I fear for when you get a hurricane. If you don't have anything useful to add, don't feel like you need to post. Maybe unplug the keyboard? MJW155 is exactly at the landfall point of a strong tropical storm. The observations are interesting to me and I'm sure to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 LOL. You are so wise. Sorry I doubted you. Don't let it bother you, as you said it's a May storm and this IS the ATL we're talking about not WPAC where May storms can be fearsome at times. In reality not all that many people on this site have actually experienced full hurricane conditions since you usually have to go looking for them. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I fear for when you get a hurricane. Keep the trolling on the OT side and out of tropical threads. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Nice landfalling cyclone to begin our 2012 NATL Tropical Season. I suspect it won't be the last. It is also good to see some badly needed rainfall in an area that is in a multi year drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Beryl packing a wallop. Power out now, can't believe we lasted as long as we did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Quick update, currently showing Jacksonville area picking up and additional .86 to 1.48" of rain in the next 3 hours. In addition wind gusts around 35-40mph through 15Zulu, then beginning to die down after. Updated posted- http://smartwxmodel.net/Storm2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA...FAR NE FL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 281500Z - 281630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE FL AND SERN GA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ABOUT 60 STATUTE MILES WEST OF JACKSONVILLE FL. MESOANALYSIS DATA CURRENTLY SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.10 INCHES EXTENDING NEWD FROM BERYL'S CENTER ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 20 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS TO EXHIBIT ROTATION. AS BERYL MOVES SLOWLY WWD...THE THREAT MAY EXTEND FURTHER INLAND ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN RESULT IN SFC HEATING IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF JACKSONVILLE. STORMS THAT ROTATE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF BERYL THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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