tmagan Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 02Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The LSR says it was on Buck Island. Still, I know some of the highrises Downtown are 35-40 stories. They've gotta be near hurricane force gusts now. Yeah, Buck Island is a dredge dumping site for the river channel with a marker and anemometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 nice gust came though, strongest yet maybe 45-50 maybe a little higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The IR imagery is interesting for three reasons: * The system looks well-organized. * The "eye" is quite large and almost Wilma-esque. * The convection is rather tepid. There's just this paucity of cold cloud tops. The cyclone looks much better on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The IR imagery is interesting for three reasons: * The system looks well-organized. * The "eye" is quite large and almost Wilma-esque. * The convection is rather tepid. There's just this paucity of cold cloud tops. The cyclone looks much better on radar. The Wilma reference is interesting in that on radar the COC is quite cavernous as was Wilma's giant eye. We all know Wilma was a spin down from a classic monster at one point though and had momentum to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Jax has a truly massive tree canopy consisting of mainly 3 types of oaks, red maples, cypress (both pond and bald), slash and longleaf pine, and magnolias. Palm trees are everywhere as expected, but Jax's 2nd biggest asset, urban forest, is its biggest threat. I assumed it was like Orlando or West palm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 winds more sustained the last half hour in the mid 20s probably or a little higher. not raining as hard though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The 8 pm advisory says "no 'cane". Grrrrr. There's something so frustrating about a 60-kt landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The Jacksonville Beach reading of 46 kt gusting to 59 is pretty good. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 73mph gust at Buck Island on the St. Johns River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 73 mph gust at Bucks Island.. #soclose Kings bay NAS (Just 5 miles into GA on the coast) got a wind gust to 65 before they lost connection with the instrument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 strongest winds of the night the last 5 minutes. gusts I would think close to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 strongest winds of the night the last 5 minutes. gusts I would think close to 50 Noice. How close to the coast are you again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The Jacksonville Beach reading of 46 kt gusting to 59 is pretty good. Not too shabby. If this were hitting LI or New Englan...you'd be poo-pooing every 60+kt gust report coming in you latitude snob(j/k) As Don S commented, the post analysis of this will be interesting. 12 more hours over water woulda been solid cane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If this were hitting LI or New Englan...you'd be poo-pooing every 60+kt gust report coming in you latitude snob(j/k) As Don S commented, the post analysis of this will be interesting. 12 more hours over water woulda been solid cane.. Or if it wasn't May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Noice. How close to the coast are you again? not very, I'm basically right on the river. About 5-10 minutes south of downtown. 25 minutes west of the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If this were hitting LI or New Englan...you'd be poo-pooing every 60+kt gust report coming in you latitude snob(j/k) As Don S commented, the post analysis of this will be interesting. 12 more hours over water woulda been solid cane.. The NHC's handling of these borderline systems is mysterious. There were plenty of 80-85 kt radar obs around 1.5-2 km earlier, which would support a cat 1. Recon winds seemed strong enough too. I think they're biased towards calling this a tropical storm since there's been no hurricane warnings. If there were hurricane warnings they probably would've upgraded it around 5 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If this were hitting LI or New Englan...you'd be poo-pooing every 60+kt gust report coming in you latitude snob(j/k) As Don S commented, the post analysis of this will be interesting. 12 more hours over water woulda been solid cane.. C'mon. I'm not like that. P.S. I wouldn't be shocked to see a posthumous upgrade, like Cindy 2005, once they can really sit down and analyze the data. I'm not saying they're going to or should-- just that it was close enough that it wouldn't be shocking. The 80 kt at flight level was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 not very, I'm basically right on the river. About 5-10 minutes south of downtown. 25 minutes west of the beach Cool. Well, those sound like believable values, given the situation. Kudos to you for not inflating your estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 In terms of those 80kt flight level winds found per tpc the actual surface winds beneath the airplane were only about 50 kt, well below hurricane strength. On average, 80 kt at 850 mb would correspond to about 65 kt at the surface. But not all storms have the "average" structure. Some have surface to flight-level wind ratios that are higher than average, some are lower than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The NHC's handling of these borderline systems is mysterious. There were plenty of 80-85 kt radar obs around 1.5-2 km earlier, which would support a cat 1. Recon winds seemed strong enough too. I think they're biased towards calling this a tropical storm since there's been no hurricane warnings. If there were hurricane warnings they probably would've upgraded it around 5 pm. What about Humberto 2007? That one was upgraded right as it came ashore, and I don't think there were 'cane warnings until just around that time. I agree with you, the data sure are suggestive. It certainly wouldn't be an outlandish move if they did upgrade it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 whether it was a hurricane or not it had a well developed structure for late may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Starting to see the low-topped stuff around the center now on radar as it comes closer in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The radar presentation has deteriorated, with a thinning of the convection and an elongation of the "eye" along a SW-NE axis. The center is just about onshore. It's definitely not going to get any stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 What about Humberto 2007? That one was upgraded right as it came ashore, and I don't think there were 'cane warnings until just around that time. I agree with you, the data sure are suggestive. It certainly wouldn't be an outlandish move if they did upgrade it. Humberto seems to be the exception, as far as the NHC deciding on whether or not to pull the 'cane trigger for a system at landfall. I think Humberto was also unusual in that it was plainly obvious it was strengthening even beyond the 60/65kt borderline area. Cases in the past 10 years where the NHC did *not* upgrade 60kt TSs approaching land to hurricanes operationally (rightly or wrongly): Barry 2001 (FL) Chantal 2001 (Belize) Gabrielle 2001 (FL) Erika 2003 (MX -- upgraded post-analysis) Gaston 2004 (SC -- upgraded post-analysis) Cindy 2005 (LA -- upgraded post-analysis) Ernesto 2006 (NC) Hanna 2008 (NC) Beryl 2012 (FL) Other than Humberto, the only other case I can think of in recent times when the NHC made a last-minute upgrade to 'cane status is Ida 2009 (Nicaragua). So I guess it happens, but it's not nearly as common as holding back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 What about Humberto 2007? That one was upgraded right as it came ashore, and I don't think there were 'cane warnings until just around that time. I agree with you, the data sure are suggestive. It certainly wouldn't be an outlandish move if they did upgrade it. Yup, and it was quite a run of years in a row- Erika '03, Gaston '04, Cindy '05, and Ernesto '06 where the NHC had to decide whether to upgrade after the fact. Just reading over those reports, it's still almost a coin-toss which way Ernesto should have gone given the wording of the report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 well I have no power here in palm coast its really comming down now.I guess this would be what you would call in the southern eye wall in some sort of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 Here in Savannah some 100 or so miles to the north, an outer feeder band just passed through moving NW. This was the first rain I saw all day. The rain started off as quite heavy and was accompanied by very gusty winds. It reminded me of a squall line, but it came in from the SE as opposed to a real squall line, which usually comes in with an easterly component of motion, and there was no lightning. There were several thousand power outages here today, including a nearly 12 hour long one at my bro's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Another update at http://smartwxmodel/Storm2.htm Tracking winds around 50mph, visibility around 1.3 miles and rain rate of.10 per hr. Around the Jax area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Hurricane or not, even if we assume a very low estimate of 50kt max sustained winds at landfall...Beryl is the strongest recorded TC to hit the US in May since 1908. In 104 years. If it truly is a 60kt (or higher) landfall, it is the strongest US May hit on record (since HURDAT considers the 1908 storm a 55kt hit). In the satellite era, the only system that really even compares to Beryl is Alpha of 1972, which hit GA as a 45kt subtropical storm. Any way you put it, this is a rare breed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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