donsutherland1 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 when you consider people like JB make absolute forecasts and bust 99% of the time, why would you want Don to do so. No one could answer the question in absolute terms and be right. JB has lost most of his credibility in trying to do so. Even though Don is not being declarative in stating what will happen, one can certainly ascertain the direction of his thoughts. That's good enough for me. He wasn't asked to perform brain surgery and in fact answered the question. There's always a degree of uncertainty. I've tried to convey that. Nevertheless, you can see the direction I believe is the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Wouldn't want you to actually go out on a limb and make an actual declaration. Shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Wouldn't want you to actually go out on a limb and make an actual declaration. Wouldn't you want to actually put out a forecast before criticizing those who have done so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 There's always a degree of uncertainty. I've tried to convey that. Nevertheless, you can see the direction I believe is the most likely outcome. Don, I enjoy this thread, and while I do not post in it often, I follow your writings. I greatly respect the effort you are putting forth. Keep up the good work. My thoughts for summer: Your heat shield is correct, but IMHO the axis is a couple hundred miles too far east for the summer as a whole. I believe that will mean the further NE and SE one goes, the less the heat signal will be. Otherwise, those inside the heat zone will have the heat you have expressed. Really not much difference in opinion. A couple hundred miles is quibbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I like Don's forecast for july. I agree about the first half and think and we all hope that the second half will be cooler,also if the el nino kicks in enough then august will be our first below normal month in some time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 For those who are following the extreme heat currently underway, Norton Dam, KS had a high temperature of 118°. That missed the State mark by only 3°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 For those who are following the extreme heat currently underway, Norton Dam, KS had a high temperature of 118°. That missed the State mark by only 3°. Which fits nicely with your message 9 JJA suggestion that peak heat would be Texas through the Central Plains. Any thoughts, assuming there is much Atlantic MDR development in August and September, what parts of the US and Mexico would be relatively favored for landfall and which would be relatively unfavored? I have heard a private sector met of some fame thinks the Northeast is favored, and is using 1954 and 1991 analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Don S, the forecast is looking fairly darn good for persistence, especially with the recent 15-20 day persistence of the Global Wind Oscillation being in & around Stage 1 +/- 0.5( Therefore: Atmospheric La Nina Conditions ---> Above Average Summers in the U.S.), If this persistence stays through most of July it's going to be a drought of 1980/1988 proportions, MJO is forecasted to stay in and around the 1 and 2 number phase spaces (As Euro & GFS ensembles show), which means forcing should support the same pattern. The question will be when does the Oceanic Nino State with the MEI likely Near +1, start to couple with the Very La Nina-esque Atmospheric Pattern (GWO/MJO)? Note the Daily GWO stats are eerily the same for 2012 & 1988 from June 1st-24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Don, it looks like many of the models are pointing to a potential trough in the east beginning July 10th or so. The ridge is shifting west. Given the consistent -NAO, do you foresee a ridge west/trough east/block greenland pattern sticking around after this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 July 2012 Forecast: Despite the likely emergence of an El Niño event in July, the month will likely be uncharacteristically warm. In fact, when one considers the likely ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.0°C or above, the warmth that appears likely will be exceptional. Key Assumptions: • An El Niño event will develop in July • The AO will likely be near neutral (with variability in negative and positive ranges) • The PNA will likely be near neutral. The top analog was 2002. The charts on which my July idea is based are: Top Left: Analogs for July 2012 Top Right: July 2002 Bottom Left: CFSv2 Forecast for July Bottom Right: Observed decadal temperature trend In addition, if one considers the exceptionally warm spring (March-May 2012 ranked 1st in the CONUS) and warm June nationwide (a top 30 or warmer June appears likely) with ENSO Region 3.4 temperatures in the +27.25°C to +28.25°C range for June, one comes up with the following cases: 1934, 1936, 1977, 1994, 2006, and 2010. That situation has favored widespread heat in July, particularly in the Central Plains. Factoring in the continued abnormal warmth in the Arctic, the analog situation of a large area of cool anomalies across Canada appears very unlikely. As a result, the magnitude of warmth could be even greater than what the analog cases suggest. Based on the prevalent conditions in the Arctic region, observed decadal trend, warm spring/warm June cases, analogs, and CFSv2, my thoughts are as follows: - Most of North America will likely be warmer than normal. - An area the Southern/Central Plains and then eastward through the Great Lakes into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/parts of the Northeastern U.S. could be much warmer than normal - Most of Canada will likely be warmer than normal. The most impressive warmth could be located in northernmost Canada and also southern Ontario (including the Toronto Metro Area) - Cool anomalies are likely to be confined to the immediate U.S. West Coast and the Pacific coast of Canada It is interesting to see 1934 and 1936 cases being mentioned. Those two years offered tropical activity in the Western Basin and may not be a bad fit with the pattern we are currently experiencing along the Western Gulf. Thanks for your thoughts as always, Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 It is interesting to see 1934 and 1936 cases being mentioned. Those two years offered tropical activity in the Western Basin and may not be a bad fit with the pattern we are currently experiencing along the Western Gulf. Thanks for your thoughts as always, Don. Steve, And some of the records currently being challenged or broken were established in 1934 or 1936. For example, Atlanta is now within 4° of its daily high temperature that was set in 1936. Baltimore will likely fall a few degrees shy of its monthly record high that was set on this date in 1934; With a temperature of 105°, Columbia, SC has already surpassed its daily mark that was set in 1936. Washington, DC is within a degree of its daily record, which was set in 1934. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Don, it looks like many of the models are pointing to a potential trough in the east beginning July 10th or so. The ridge is shifting west. Given the consistent -NAO, do you foresee a ridge west/trough east/block greenland pattern sticking around after this? Summer wave lengths are shorter, so the NAO has less of an impact. If such a development occurs, I believe it will be temporary. If I'm not mistaken, two weeks before the current period, the modeling was showing a trough in the Great Lakes area with a large part of the East quite cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Don S, the forecast is looking fairly darn good for persistence, especially with the recent 15-20 day persistence of the Global Wind Oscillation being in & around Stage 1 +/- 0.5( Therefore: Atmospheric La Nina Conditions ---> Above Average Summers in the U.S.), If this persistence stays through most of July it's going to be a drought of 1980/1988 proportions, MJO is forecasted to stay in and around the 1 and 2 number phase spaces (As Euro & GFS ensembles show), which means forcing should support the same pattern. The question will be when does the Oceanic Nino State with the MEI likely Near +1, start to couple with the Very La Nina-esque Atmospheric Pattern (GWO/MJO)? Note the Daily GWO stats are eerily the same for 2012 & 1988 from June 1st-24th. Great points, WxMidwest. With respect to the emerging El Niño exerting a greater influence on the pattern, there's a possibility one might begin to see it happen at some point in August. The analog pool I'm coming up with shows a lot of very different outcomes for August. The lack of a consistent signal might be a hint that August could be a transitional month. The transition began after mid-August in 2002. With that being my leading analog for July, perhaps that offers some insight. However, there is precedent for a more delayed onset of more typical El Niño conditions e.g., 1957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Great points, WxMidwest. With respect to the emerging El Niño exerting a greater influence on the pattern, there's a possibility one might begin to see it happen at some point in August. The analog pool I'm coming up with shows a lot of very different outcomes for August. The lack of a consistent signal might be a hint that August could be a transitional month. The transition began after mid-August in 2002. With that being my leading analog for July, perhaps that offers some insight. However, there is precedent for a more delayed onset of more typical El Niño conditions e.g., 1957. 1957 was an analog for the 2002-03 winter...Both great ones in our area...the mei is similar to those years...hopefully next winter will be also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Highlights from today's incredible heat: Athens, GA: 107° (tied the June record of 107°) Atlanta: 103° (broke the June record of 102°) Baltimore: 103° (missed the daily/monthly record of 105°) Charlotte: 104° (broke the June record of 103°) Columbia, SC: 109° (broke the June record of 107°) Memphis: 102° (broke the daily record of 101°) Nashville: 107° (broke the June record of 106°) Raleigh: 105° (broke the June record of 104°) Richmond: 102° (broke the daily record of 101°) Smyrna, TN: 113° (smashed the pre-2012 June record of 103°, Tied the State's highest temperature on record) Washington, DC: ...DCA: 104° (broke the June record of 102°) ...IAD: 101° (broke the June record of 100°) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Highlights from today's incredible heat: Athens, GA: 107° (tied the June record of 107°) Atlanta: 103° (broke the June record of 102°) Baltimore: 103° (missed the daily/monthly record of 105°) Charlotte: 104° (broke the June record of 103°) Columbia, SC: 109° (broke the June record of 107°) Memphis: 102° (broke the daily record of 101°) Nashville: 107° (broke the June record of 106°) Raleigh: 105° (broke the June record of 104°) Richmond: 102° (broke the daily record of 101°) Smyrna, TN: 113° (smashed the pre-2012 June record of 103°, Tied the State's highest temperature on record) Washington, DC: ...DCA: 104° (broke the June record of 102°) ...IAD: 101° (broke the June record of 100°) Can the Smyrna record be believed? Seems out of sorts with other sites in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Can the Smyrna record be believed? Seems out of sorts with other sites in TN. Before any state record is certified, NWS will undertake a rigorous review. In recent years, such reviews led to a possible state record low in Illinois not being counted and a state record low in Maine being added to the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic_Blast Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Looks like Nashville reached 109°... all-time record high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 disgusting weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 Highlights from today's incredible heat (updated as of 9 pm): Athens, GA: 109° (broke the June record of 107°) Atlanta: 104° (broke the June record of 102°) Baltimore: 103° (missed the daily/monthly record of 105°) Charlotte: 104° (broke the June record of 103°) Columbia, SC: 109° (broke the June record of 107°) Memphis: 103° (broke the daily record of 101°) Nashville: 109° (broke the June record of 106°) Paducah, KY: 108° (broke the June record of 106°) Raleigh: 105° (broke the June record of 104°) Richmond: 103° (broke the daily record of 101°) Smyrna, TN: 113° (smashed the pre-2012 June record of 103°, Tied the State's highest temperature on record) Washington, DC: ...DCA: 104° (broke the June record of 102°) ...IAD: 102° (broke the June record of 100°) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Some stats pertaining to the last two days in Indiana. Highest June maximum temperature on record... Evansville 107º on June 28, 2012 107º on June 29, 2012 104º on June 26, 1954 103º on June 29, 1952 103º on June 29, 1936 102º on June 27, 1978 102º on June 28, 1936 Fort Wayne 106º on June 28, 2012 106º on June 25, 1988 102º on June 21, 1988 102º on June 28, 1934 101º on June 1, 1934 100º on June 20, 1953 Indianapolis 104º on June 28, 2012 103º on June 29, 2012 102º on June 25, 1988 102º on June 26, 1954 101º on June 28, 1934 100º four times All time highest maximum temperatures in recorded history for each site... Evansville 111º on 7/28/1930 108º on 7/13/1936, 7/26/1930 107º on 6/28/2012, 6/29/2012, 7/12/1936, 7/22/1901, 7/27/1930 Fort Wayne 106º on 6/28/2012, 6/25/1988, 7/14/1936, 7/22/1934 104º on 7/8/1934, 7/13/1936, 7/21/1934, 7/24/1934 Indianapolis 106º on 7/14/1936, 7/21/1934, 7/22/1901 105º on 7/10/1936, 7/24/1934, 7/25/1934 104º on 6/28/2012, 7/8/1936, 7/11/1936, 7/14/1954 103º on 6/29, 2012, 7/4/1911, 7/9/1936, 7/12/1936, 7/13/1936, 7/15/1936, 7/15/1988, 7/20/1934, 7/22/1934, 7/30/1904, 8/5/1918 Period of record for each site... Evansville: 1897 to present Fort Wayne: 1897 to present Indianapolis: 1871 to present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 30, 2012 Author Share Posted June 30, 2012 To further put this historic outbreak of heat into perspective, here's the number of U.S. records broken or tied over the past 7 days (data for 6/29 isn't yet available) or during the 6/22 through 6/28 timeframe: Monthly High Temperature Records: Broken: 147 Tied: 114 All-Time High Temperature Records: Broken: 24 Tied: 33 There was one monthly low temperature record during this timeframe (24° at Oconto, WI on 6/27). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 1, 2012 Author Share Posted July 1, 2012 In terms of yesterday's heat, the temperature reached 113° near Johnstown, SC yesterday. If that temperature is validated, it would eclipse the highest temperature on record for South Carolina, which is currently 111°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 In terms of yesterday's heat, the temperature reached 113° near Johnstown, SC yesterday. If that temperature is validated, it would eclipse the highest temperature on record for South Carolina, which is currently 111°. Don, Where did you find that? The only data I get from Johnstown, SC for yesterday shows the high at 105.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Don, Where did you find that? The only data I get from Johnstown, SC for yesterday shows the high at 105.3. =SC#records_look_up"]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/daily/maxt/2012/06/30?sts[]=SC#records_look_up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 http://www.ncdc.noaa...records_look_up thanks. It is Johnston, not Johnstown. That's what threw me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 I believe the attached is the station being used for the record possibly. If so, it registers 109.4F for yesterday. Maybe I have the incorrect station. This particular one seems like the one used as I couldn't find any closer to the GPS location. I also note that this station is located in a automobile bone yard as we call it. Quite a site for a thermometer. http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KSCEDGEF1&day=30&year=2012&month=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 thanks. It is Johnston, not Johnstown. That's what threw me off. Sorry, I had a typo. Johnston was the city in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Although it has garnered much attention with the historic outbreak of heat in the U.S., parts of Europe, including Italy, Spain, Serbia, and Germany have been experiencing record heat. Perugia, Italy set an all-time record high of 104° earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 Some quick morning thoughts... 1. The preliminary June data is in. The temperature anomalies for June 2012 much more closely resembled those of June 2002 than June 1976 or June 2009. 2. Earlier, the March-May temperature anomalies in the Arctic region were characterized by widespread warmth. The pattern was similar to situations in which warmer than normal summers in North America had occurred since 1990. 3. The early data, even as an El Niño emerges, offers perhaps the first confirmation that Summer 2012 will more likely resemble Summer 2002 than either Summer 1976 or Summer 2009. In other words, the "non-summer" idea is unlikely to verify. Instead, another warmer than normal summer appears to be underway. 4. For those interested in reading more about the historic outbreak of heat, there's a fairly detailed blog piece that can be found at: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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