Medium Range Discussion Summer 2012

[toronto blizzard]

I'm going to have to disagree with you don on the last week of June being warm in the east. Models have continually shown a trough over the lakes/northeast for several days now.

[cooling climate]

Some morning thoughts:

1. I was a little slow with the timing for the recent cool weather in June (favoring the June 8-15 period for cool anomalies vs. the June 1-7 timeframe) in Messages #1 and #9.

A novel way of saying you was wrong I suppose.

[am19psu]

A novel way of saying you was wrong I suppose.

Do you plan on adding anything to the discussion or just drive by trolling Don and HM?

[Met1985]

June 23-30, 2012 Thoughts:

The final week of June appears likely to witness the warmest readings relative to normal in parts of the East. In fact, compensating for the shorter wavelengths, much of North America looks to be warmer than normal. Moreover, with some hot analogs showing up, it appears increasingly likely that the first week of July could experience warmer than normal temperatures, too. Among the hot analogs appearing are 1966, 1969, 1977, and 1980. In fact, the latest run of the CFSv2 has much of North America and Eurasia warmer to much warmer than normal for July. Right now, it's too soon to make a definitive call for July, but some hot analogs have persistently been in the mix.

The charts below are as follows:

Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -0.2°C to +0.6°C, a PNA of -1.00 to 0.00, and an AO of 0.00 to +1.00 for North America.

Right: NAEFS (June 21-27, 2012 forecast)

All said, my thoughts are as follows:

- West Coast of the U.S. into British Columbia eastward into Alberta: cooler than normal.

- Southwestern U.S. much warmer than normal

- Remainder of North America warmer than normal with perhaps the Southeast being close to normal due to wetness and an area running from the Great Lakes to the Northeastern U.S. and across Quebec and portions of Atlantic Canada having the potential to be much warmer than normal.

Sounds great Don. The weather down here has been ideal. Great for this time of the year. Just glad not to see a big heat wave building in the next couple weeks as of right now.

[JamieOber]

Apologies for the delayed reply. Right now, I don't see any big changes in the pattern. Hence, I suspect that the next 30-45 days and perhaps longer could see above normal precipitation.

Thanks, Don! Appreciate it.

Looks like a break for a bit but back to the wet pattern after next week in the longer range.

[Isotherm]

A novel way of saying you was wrong I suppose.

At least learn how to speak English before throwing someone under the bus. You sound like a second grade drop-out.

[Isotherm]

Don,

Pretty much agree with your thoughts. I think the peak of the warmth for the East Coast comes Tues-Fri, just before that 23rd period. Then we'll probably have a trough swing through, but I see the mid level ridge pulsing eastward once again by early July. I also believe the front part of July will be warm, but probably more cool shots (into the Lakes/Northeast) as we approach mid summer. The recent negative SOI burst and MJO propagating into phase 1-2 is a coolish signal for the East Coast in July, so that'll be interesting to see if that transpires.

[icebreaker5221]

Don,

Pretty much agree with your thoughts. I think the peak of the warmth for the East Coast comes Tues-Fri, just before that 23rd period. Then we'll probably have a trough swing through, but I see the mid level ridge pulsing eastward once again by early July. I also believe the front part of July will be warm, but probably more cool shots (into the Lakes/Northeast) as we approach mid summer. The recent negative SOI burst and MJO propagating into phase 1-2 is a coolish signal for the East Coast in July, so that'll be interesting to see if that transpires.

I agree, Don and Iso. Add to that the fact that this upcoming transient heat in the east should only be a break in the -NAO reloading. Both long-range GFS/ECMWF + ensembles are redeveloping Greenland blocking in what appears to be a very stable configuration over the N Atlantic, which should keep the NAO more negatvie than positive into the start of July.

I like the idea of a trough-ridge-trough pattern to end Jun / start off Jul. Cool on both coasts (and maybe cool Great Lakes) and warm over the Rockies and central plains.

[donsutherland1]

A novel way of saying you was wrong I suppose.

I never suggested that I was right.

The point about the timing may be indicative with possible adjustments for shorter wave lengths going forward if the error proves to be fairly frequent. I made note of it so that when I review this thread at some point in the future, I can quickly flag some of my errors and reconcile them with what happened. Hopefully, the outcome would be better ideas going forward.

[joeride]

A novel way of saying you was wrong I suppose.

Way to use .0001% of your brain.

My 7 year old grandson speaks better than that!

[HeatMiser]

Any thoughts on the first two weeks of July? First week looks to be relatively normal, to slightly below with some low pressures over the northeast. The MJO looks to be hovering around phase 1 according to the latest GFS ens for the first week.

Initially the second week of July looked like it could have some heat potential according to last thursday's euro weeklies. However, as of monday, the weeklies cooled it off a little bit. Also, it initally looked like the MJO was going to move into phase 3--which corresponded to the eastern heat--however, now it looks like it will be in phase 2.

[donsutherland1]

Any thoughts on the first two weeks of July? First week looks to be relatively normal, to slightly below with some low pressures over the northeast. The MJO looks to be hovering around phase 1 according to the latest GFS ens for the first week.

Initially the second week of July looked like it could have some heat potential according to last thursday's euro weeklies. However, as of monday, the weeklies cooled it off a little bit. Also, it initally looked like the MJO was going to move into phase 3--which corresponded to the eastern heat--however, now it looks like it will be in phase 2.

The idea of perhaps the greatest warmth occurring in the final 7-10 days of June was early on and persistently part of the analogs showing up (Messages #7 and Message #9). Shorter wave lengths have led to a somewhat more rapid progression of the pattern. I'm trying to compensate for that in July.

However, the month as a whole may well wind up warmer than normal in the East. Some of the analogs still to be sifted through are very hot. If those analogs wind up being representative of July's conditions, the notions of a "non-summer" this year will wind up torched. July will probably wind up the warmest month relative to normal. August is still uncertain, but there has been some tendency among analogs showing up in recent weeks to hint at a rising probability of warmer than normal conditions.

I'll put out my first week of July thoughts tomorrow. Probably a day or two later, I'll post my overall thoughts for July. I'm leaning toward widespread warmth, but that's not yet cast in stone.

[easternsnowman]

The idea of perhaps the greatest warmth occurring in the final 7-10 days of June was early on and persistently part of the analogs showing up (Messages #7 and Message #9). Shorter wave lengths have led to a somewhat more rapid progression of the pattern. I'm trying to compensate for that in July.

However, the month as a whole may well wind up warmer than normal in the East. Some of the analogs still to be sifted through are very hot. If those analogs wind up being representative of July's conditions, the notions of a "non-summer" this year will wind up torched. July will probably wind up the warmest month relative to normal. August is still uncertain, but there has been some tendency among analogs showing up in recent weeks to hint at a rising probability of warmer than normal conditions.

I'll put out my first week of July thoughts tomorrow. Probably a day or two later, I'll post my overall thoughts for July. I'm leaning toward widespread warmth, but that's not yet cast in stone.

If anyone will forecast warmer than normal based on data since march 2010 then they will be right nearly 80 per cent of the time. I think it's time we admit that about 2 above normal is now the new normal for these times. In fact since march 2010 only 2 months have really been below the norms and that is an amazing stetch that should tell us something.

[N. OF PIKE]

If anyone will forecast warmer than normal based on data since march 2010 then they will be right nearly 80 per cent of the time. I think it's time we admit that about 2 above normal is now the new normal for these times. In fact since march 2010 only 2 months have really been below the norms and that is an amazing stetch that should tell us something.

is that the case for europe as well as the pacific countries

or are you suggesting something more local?

[donsutherland1]

July 1-7, 2012 Thoughts:

With the exception of the Great Lakes region, most of North America will likely be warmer than normal during the first week in July. Extreme heat is not likely in the eastern third of the U.S.

The charts below are as follows:

Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of 0.00°C to +0.75°C, a PNA of -0.50 to +0.50, and an AO of +0.00 to +1.00 for North America.

Right: Observed decadal temperature trend for July

Although the teleconnection analogs suggest a large area of cool anomalies, even taking into consideration shorter wave lengths, the preponderance of guidance, along with the observed decadal temperature trends argue for a smaller area of cool anomalies.

- The NAEFS is warm almost coast-to-coast with a small are in the Great Lakes region being cool.

- Both the GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles favor widespread warmth in North America.

- The CFSv2 features near normal conditions in the Great Lakes area to New England and cool anomalies in the Pacific Northwest; the remainder of North America is warmer than normal

- The observed decadal temperature trends favor warmth in much of the area showing up as cool on the teleconnection analogs.

Taking all the guidance into consideration, my thoughts are as follows:

- Great Lakes region: Near normal with perhaps a small area of cool anomalies.

- Pacific Northwest: Near normal to perhaps a little cooler than normal

- Remainder of North America: Warmer than normal. The Central Plains into the Southeast could see the largest warm anomalies.

Finally, odds are increasingly tilting toward a warmer than normal July over much of North America. I expect to finalize the monthly analogs over the next day or two. However, some warm analogs including 1953, 1966, 1969 (the top June analog), 2001, and 2006 are very much in the mix. At the same time, 2009 is fading somewhat.

[easternsnowman]

is that the case for europe as well as the pacific countries

or are you suggesting something more local?

More local the mid-atlantic and northeast.

[donsutherland1]

In Message #9, my summer (June-August) thoughts were as follows:

West Coast (except for the Pacific Northwest) would wind up somewhat cooler than normal. The Pacific Northwest will likely be near to somewhat warmer than normal. The Great Lakes region (U.S. States and Ontario), Northern Plains and New England would likely wind up near normal with some areas of cool anomalies. The rest of the U.S. would wind up warmer than normal. The warmest anomalies would likely extend from Texas northward into the Central Plains and then eastward into the Western Gulf States. Northern Canada and much of eastern Canada, along with central Manitoba northward and central Saskatchewan northward would likely be warmer than normal. Alaska would likely have a warm summer. The rest of Canada could be near normal.

Through June 24, cool anomalies have been confined to the immediate West Coast and also a portion of the East Coast, particularly the Southeast. A bout of upcoming extreme heat could wipe out much of the Southeast's cool anomalies.Parts of the Plains States and also eastern Canada have been very warm.

Yesterday saw extreme heat with the temperature reaching up to 115°F in parts of Kansas and Nebraska. More importantly, the month as a whole has proved warmer than normal in the Great Lakes region. With widespread warmth likely in July (monthly forecast will be posted tonight or tomorrow), odds of an even warmer outcome for the summer as a whole than what I described are growing. Even more remarkable, the probability of such warmth is growing even as the probability of a possible moderate El Niño event has increased markedly (the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was at +0.4° for the week centered around June 20, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has reached some of its warmest levels since July and August 1998, and the SOI recently fell to its lowest reading since February 16, 2010). Previously, odds favored a weak El Niño, but recent data may be pointing both to a stronger scenario and also a basinwide El Niño event. The development of a basinwide El Niño would have potential implications for the coming winter.

[uncle W]

In Message #9, my summer (June-August) thoughts were as follows:

West Coast (except for the Pacific Northwest) would wind up somewhat cooler than normal. The Pacific Northwest will likely be near to somewhat warmer than normal. The Great Lakes region (U.S. States and Ontario), Northern Plains and New England would likely wind up near normal with some areas of cool anomalies. The rest of the U.S. would wind up warmer than normal. The warmest anomalies would likely extend from Texas northward into the Central Plains and then eastward into the Western Gulf States. Northern Canada and much of eastern Canada, along with central Manitoba northward and central Saskatchewan northward would likely be warmer than normal. Alaska would likely have a warm summer. The rest of Canada could be near normal.

Through June 24, cool anomalies have been confined to the immediate West Coast and also a portion of the East Coast, particularly the Southeast. A bout of upcoming extreme heat could wipe out much of the Southeast's cool anomalies.Parts of the Plains States and also eastern Canada have been very warm.

Yesterday saw extreme heat with the temperature reaching up to 115°F in parts of Kansas and Nebraska. More importantly, the month as a whole has proved warmer than normal in the Great Lakes region. With widespread warmth likely in July (monthly forecast will be posted tonight or tomorrow), odds of an even warmer outcome for the summer as a whole than what I described are growing. Even more remarkable, the probability of such warmth is growing even as the probability of a possible moderate El Niño event has increased markedly (the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was at +0.4° for the week centered around June 20, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has reached some of its warmest levels since July and August 1998, and the SOI recently fell to its lowest reading since February 16, 2010). Previously, odds favored a weak El Niño, but recent data may be pointing both to a stronger scenario and also a basinwide El Niño event. The development of a basinwide El Niño would have potential implications for the coming winter.

thanks Don...Your posts are always my first read...The MEI was at +.706 last month which was in el nino territory...The next reading comes out next week and it could be close to+1.000...(guessing)A significant number...This year looks like another hot one for most of the country but I'm hoping the NE sees some breaks in the heat like this weeks cool down...TWT...

[donsutherland1]

July 2012 Forecast:

Despite the likely emergence of an El Niño event in July, the month will likely be uncharacteristically warm. In fact, when one considers the likely ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.0°C or above, the warmth that appears likely will be exceptional.

Key Assumptions:

• An El Niño event will develop in July

• The AO will likely be near neutral (with variability in negative and positive ranges)

• The PNA will likely be near neutral.

The top analog was 2002.

The charts on which my July idea is based are:

Top Left: Analogs for July 2012

Top Right: July 2002

Bottom Left: CFSv2 Forecast for July

Bottom Right: Observed decadal temperature trend

In addition, if one considers the exceptionally warm spring (March-May 2012 ranked 1st in the CONUS) and warm June nationwide (a top 30 or warmer June appears likely) with ENSO Region 3.4 temperatures in the +27.25°C to +28.25°C range for June, one comes up with the following cases: 1934, 1936, 1977, 1994, 2006, and 2010. That situation has favored widespread heat in July, particularly in the Central Plains.

Factoring in the continued abnormal warmth in the Arctic, the analog situation of a large area of cool anomalies across Canada appears very unlikely. As a result, the magnitude of warmth could be even greater than what the analog cases suggest.

Based on the prevalent conditions in the Arctic region, observed decadal trend, warm spring/warm June cases, analogs, and CFSv2, my thoughts are as follows:

- Most of North America will likely be warmer than normal.

- An area the Southern/Central Plains and then eastward through the Great Lakes into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/parts of the Northeastern U.S. could be much warmer than normal

- Most of Canada will likely be warmer than normal. The most impressive warmth could be located in northernmost Canada and also southern Ontario (including the Toronto Metro Area)

- Cool anomalies are likely to be confined to the immediate U.S. West Coast and the Pacific coast of Canada

[donsutherland1]

thanks Don...Your posts are always my first read...The MEI was at +.706 last month which was in el nino territory...The next reading comes out next week and it could be close to+1.000...(guessing)A significant number...This year looks like another hot one for most of the country but I'm hoping the NE sees some breaks in the heat like this weeks cool down...TWT...

Thanks Uncle W.

I agree with you about the MEI's probably being close to +1. Hopefully, as you noted, there might be some breaks in the heat. It will be interesting to see if August turns cooler.

[Ginx snewx]

Don love your posts and you are certainly an exceptional poster and source of info. One question , has June been a top thirty warm month with this Last 30 day look to the US

"In addition, if one considers the exceptionally warm spring (March-May 2012 ranked 1st in the CONUS) and warm June nationwide (a top 30 or warmer June appears likely)"

[donsutherland1]

Ginx,

Right now, June 2012 is not the 30th warmest. But the 30 day map you show had some cold weather in the Northern Plains in the May 28-31 period and also the coming bout of extreme heat could wipe out some of the cool anomalies in parts of the Southeast, as well as increase them from the Plains States eastward. 1971 is currently the 30th warmest.

P.S. I had an error on my spreadsheet. Parts of the SE into VA will very likely maintain cool anomalies despite the intense heat. Hence, June 2012 probably will not be the 30th warmest on record. I regret the error. Nonetheless, with 2002 coming out as the top analog for my calculations and also the very warm CFSv2 forecast, even if I throw out the hot composite, much of North America still turns out warmer than normal for July.

[Hoosier]

Don, do you believe that additional eastward discharges of severe heat are likely in July as we are about to witness?

[donsutherland1]

Don, do you believe that additional eastward discharges of severe heat are likely in July as we are about to witness?

I suspect that the first half of July will probably be the warmest relative to normal. It would not surprise me if there were another round of extreme heat before mid-July. It is possible that the upcoming round of heat might prove to be the most severe of the summer.

[uncle W]

Thanks Uncle W.

I agree with you about the MEI's probably being close to +1. Hopefully, as you noted, there might be some breaks in the heat. It will be interesting to see if August turns cooler.

it will be interesting to see when the heat peaks this year...the last developing el nino year in 2009 had its hottest period in August...usually an el nino Ausust is cool on average...NYC's coolest August temperature is 50 set in 1965, 1976, 1982 and 1986...all developing el nino years...

[Ginx snewx]

Ginx,

Right now, June 2012 is not the 30th warmest. But the 30 day map you show had some cold weather in the Northern Plains in the May 28-31 period and also the coming bout of extreme heat could wipe out some of the cool anomalies in parts of the Southeast, as well as increase them from the Plains States eastward. 1971 is currently the 30th warmest.

P.S. I had an error on my spreadsheet. Parts of the SE into VA will very likely maintain cool anomalies despite the intense heat. Hence, June 2012 probably will not be the 30th warmest on record. I regret the error. Nonetheless, with 2002 coming out as the top analog for my calculations and also the very warm CFSv2 forecast, even if I throw out the hot composite, much of North America still turns out warmer than normal for July.

No big deal and thanks for the explanation. It is hoped in my backyard that we continue to be on the fringe of the highest positive deviation. Looking more normal here as we start July than previously thought, bouts of heat mixed with stretches of normality.

[donsutherland1]

July 8-15, 2012 Thoughts:

With the exception of the West Coast, warmth is likely to predominate across North America.

The charts below are as follows:

Left: The composite temperature anomalies for ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of +0.20°C to +0.80°C, a PNA of -0.50 to +0.50, and an AO of -0.50 to +0.50 for North America.

Right: NAEFS (July 6-12, 2012 forecast)

Given the teleconnection analogs, guidance, and observed decadal trend in temperatures, I believe the July 8-15 period will likely feature the following conditions:

- Central Plains, Great Lakes region and Southeastern States: Possibly much above normal readings.

- West Coast: Near normal to perhaps a little cooler than normal

- Remainder of North America: Warmer than normal.

It should be noted that 2002 remained prominent in the weekly analog pool. At the same time, 2009, which had been fading, was not present. Among the analog years were 1953, 1963, 1966, 1991, 2002, and 2005. All of those years experienced heat in late June (currently ongoing) and also a period of intense heat during the last 7-10 days of July. Hence, even as the warmth could ease for a time, the month could end on another warm note, particularly in the eastern third to eastern half of the U.S. and parts of southern Canada.

[Mencken_Fan]

I suspect that the first half of July will probably be the warmest relative to normal. It would not surprise me if there were another round of extreme heat before mid-July. It is possible that the upcoming round of heat might prove to be the most severe of the summer.

Wouldn't want you to actually go out on a limb and make an actual declaration.

[Sunny and Warm]

Wouldn't want you to actually go out on a limb and make an actual declaration.

when you consider people like JB make absolute forecasts and bust 99% of the time, why would you want Don to do so. No one could answer the question in absolute terms and be right. JB has lost most of his credibility in trying to do so. Even though Don is not being declarative in stating what will happen, one can certainly ascertain the direction of his thoughts. That's good enough for me. He wasn't asked to perform brain surgery and in fact answered the question.

[donsutherland1]

Wouldn't want you to actually go out on a limb and make an actual declaration.

Having the first half of July the warmest relative to average does not mean that there cannot be a bout of severe heat later in the month.