cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Nice drawing! I'm guessing that depicts uni-directional shear and elevated convection. Haha, nah actually I was trying to show the strong shear blowing over the updraft. Forgot to draw the middle finger next to 2012 though lol. In all seriousness though it looks like the cells near Tomah WI are finally starting to get going. The cell north of Ottumwa may finally be gaining traction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Cell near Sigourney Iowa really taking off now. Up to 37kft last scan. Also nice robust updraft south of Iowa City around 32kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good write up from DTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 345 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 SHORT TERM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI...THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AROUND 12Z ENDING THE THREAT OF STORMS. THE QUESTION THAT STILL NEEDS TO BE ASKED IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS EVENING? A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL PASS THROUGH SE MI AROUND 20-22Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THIS FEATURE AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MI. THESE CLOUDS WILL COOL THE MID LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT BUT THE STRONG CAP BETWEEN 700-800MB...15C ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...RESIDES BELOW THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL NOT HELP INITIATION. THESE CLOUDS...IN ADDITION TO SOME DIURNAL CU...HAVE ALSO LIMITED SFC HEATING WHICH WILL WORK AGAINST BREAKING THE CAP. TEMPS RAMPED UP QUICKLY TODAY BUT HAVE SINCE STALLED IN THE LOW 90S. WHILE WATCHING THIS PREFRONTAL ZONE CROSS THROUGH WI TODAY...NOTED IT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THEN THIS CLOUD BAND. ONCE IT PASSED THROUGH...STORMS STARTED LIGHTING UP ALONG THE STRONGER 700MB THETA E GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION OCCURRING OVER SE MI THIS EVENING. WHEN THE THETA E RIDGE REACHES US WE WILL BE SITTING WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE...BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DECENT MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WITH ALL THAT SAID...WE ARE LOOKING FOR STORMS TO MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL AROUND 00Z WITH BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM AROUND 00Z-04Z. CAPE PROFILE IS TALL BUT FAIRLY NARROW LEADING TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT WITH THE STORMS. FREEZING LEVELS UP AROUND 13KFT WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO REACH SVR LIMITS FOR HAIL BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE SHOULD CAUSE THE STORMS TO TRANSITION TO MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE. SPC DOES HAVE US IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH STILL SEEMS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The sad thing is i hope tonights mcs misses me, i got 2.5" of rain nearly drowning my garden yesterday with 3 mcs coming thru my area. (after models showed no chance of storms yesterday lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The sad thing is i hope tonights mcs misses me, i got 2.5" of rain nearly drowning my garden yesterday with 3 mcs coming thru my area. (after models showed no chance of storms yesterday lol). But I desperately need rain in my area. If storms miss most of the area it's . I don't like that dry slot with under 60 dewpoints south of lake Michigan. Will have to wait for that to pass before anything happens. Ugh. It looks like there's a stronger 40 kt low level jet with better moisture behind it out in central western Illinois. I don't know how long that's going to take to get to Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 finally getting good development south of Iowa City with tops now to 42kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 But I desperately need rain in my area. If storms miss most of the area it's . I don't like that dry slot with under 60 dewpoints south of lake Michigan. Will have to wait for that to pass before anything happens. Ugh. It looks like there's a stronger 40 kt low level jet with better moisture behind it out in central western Illinois. I don't know how long that's going to take to get to Michigan. I feel ya, I was way too dry before last night and this mornings tstorms. you hear about that huge UP fire? ugh burned up a lot of places i go to on vacation on up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I feel ya, I was way too dry before last night and this mornings tstorms. you hear about that huge UP fire? ugh burned up a lot of places i go to on vacation on up there. Yea, I heard that. It's a lot more susceptible to fire up that way with all the conifers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I feel ya, I was way too dry before last night and this mornings tstorms. you hear about that huge UP fire? ugh burned up a lot of places i go to on vacation on up there. Those fires have burned quite a few acres. Sad. Both caused by lightning. Duck Lake: 21,114 Acres (18% increase from yesterday) Pine Creek: 3,400 Acres Hopefully the complex of storms moving that way will put some of them out! The big cool down will help tame those fires down also. http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The low level jet is pulling higher 850 mb dewpoints into northern IL and southern WI. Line is starting to fill in west of Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Now the warnings are starting to become more frequent. Will be a perfect evening to take a walk right before the storms roll in and watch them approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Thunderstorms firing just west of my location. Don't even need thunderstorms to cause damage. Huge limb just came down across the street and took out a wire. Just the cable, not the power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Parameters are pretty good in the DTX CWA right now from the thumb south to around I-96. 2000 MUCAPE, 30-45 kts of shear, -6 - -8 LI's, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Time for a severe thunderstorm watch further south? Warning out for the Quad Cities now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Time for a severe thunderstorm watch further south? Warning out for the Quad Cities now. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN IA THROUGH NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 282159Z - 282330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITHIN ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM ERN IA...EXTREME NWRN IL AND CNTRL WI. DOWNSTREAM THE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER NRN IL WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS SERVING TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE TO SOME DEGREE. ALOFT A WEAK IMPULSE WAS INDICATED ON THE RAPID REFRESH ANALYSIS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH IA. NEVERTHELESS...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 90 CONTRIBUTING TO A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP...AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES INTO NRN IL. WHILE SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR IS WEAK...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS OVERTAKEN THE FRONTAL ZONE RESULTING IN 35-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BOTH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY SOME SUPERCELL MODES MAY OCCUR. ..DIAL/HART.. 05/28/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 SPC meso discussion indicates that watch issuance prob is 40% at the moment. I have concern for the three eaglets just getting ready to fledge at the nest at the Davenport Alcoa plant with this svr storm bearing down on them. See Alcoa Eagle Cam to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 SPC meso discussion indicates that watch issuance prob is 40% at the moment. I have concern for the three eaglets just getting ready to fledge at the nest at the Davenport Alcoa plant with this svr storm bearing down on them. See Alcoa Eagle Cam to watch. Cool camera! Those eagle nests are usually strong enough for a human to jump up and down on. Hopefully they'll know enough to hang onto something! Starting to thunder here. Small cell making a b-line towards Zion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Line segment with 66kts at 167ft, just NE of DVN. Cyclone looks to take a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 525 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 WIC025-045-105-282300- /O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-120528T2300Z/ DANE WI-GREEN WI-ROCK WI- 525 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN ROCK...NORTHEASTERN GREEN AND SOUTHEASTERN DANE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT... AT 521 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHOREWOOD HILLS TO ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OREGON...MONONA...MCFARLAND...EVANSVILLE...STOUGHTON...EDGERTON... BROOKLYN...COTTAGE GROVE...DEERFIELD...MAGNOLIA...UNION... COOKSVILLE...UTICA...FULTON...INDIANFORD...ALBION AND ROCKDALE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. This storm is just south of Madison and looking to beeline parts of SE Wisconsin if it maintains strength. We all know how difficult that can be as storms approach the lake and the sunset hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Line segment with 66kts at 167ft, just NE of DVN. Cyclone looks to take a direct hit. 83kts at 740ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 This storm is just south of Madison and looking to beeline parts of SE Wisconsin if it maintains strength. We all know how difficult that can be as storms approach the lake and the sunset hours. Looking like it is turning right a little bit. Getting some rain here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 83kts at 740ft. quite impressive, hoping that thing can hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 83kts at 740ft. 0538 PM TSTM WND DMG PORT BYRON 41.62N 90.32W 05/28/2012 ROCK ISLAND IL LAW ENFORCEMENT LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL BLOCKS OF LOTS OF TREES DOWN IN PORT BYRON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That Severe Thunderstorm watch has just been issued for N IL. #311 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 hoping that thing can hold together Doesn't look good. Outflow racing well ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Well if this line croaks over the lake I don't get more than a tenth of an inch of rain out of this. 850 moisture ribbon is really narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 SN report...not something you see everyday in IL. "Haboob with intense wind gusts at or around 70 mph. Several strong gustnadoes also observed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looking like possibly a solid line of showers and thunderstorms for Indiana/Ohio/Michigan overnight tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Probably going to skip right over western Michigan and reform to the SE of me considering the lowest dewpoints anywhere are right over western MI now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Dewpoint of 65° here. Hoping something else forms in that gap to the west. 50-60mph winds heading towards Tropical. High winds moving across southern Waukesha County right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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