hm8 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 based on timing alone...the "we'll need storms to initiate right over us in the evening" line is way off. Frontal initiation will be in Iowa or far western Illinois and push into MI later in the evening. Sorry if it was unclear...I was talking about the prefrontal trough as far as focus for homegrown convection. I was saying that I'm pinning my severe hopes on those storms because I'm not so sold on the late monday night MCS being severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Tomorrow should feature some very steep lapse rates and 40-50 kts of shear (albeit unidirectional) from 0-6 km. DCAPE also looks to be quite healthy. All in all I expect tomorrow to feature a good amount of damaging wind reports in Michigan, with some hail also possible due to the steep lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 It looks like the northern half of the lower peninsula has some supercell potential tomorrow evening. I might go for a drive. The only issue is for people who really want the rain, coverage might be scattered. Moisture isn't excessive and the amount of low level convergence along the front probably isn't going to be enough to squeeze everything out. It's not really a set up for a monster squall line / MCS IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 It looks like the northern half of the lower peninsula has some supercell potential tomorrow evening. I might go for a drive. The only issue is for people who really want the rain, coverage might be scattered. Moisture isn't excessive and the amount of low level convergence along the front probably isn't going to be enough to squeeze everything out. It's not really a set up for a monster squall line / MCS IMO. The LLJ is going to be positioned directly over Lower MI tomorrow evening, so I think coverage should become pretty widespread after dark. I'm hoping most areas can pick up at least 0.25", as we're perilously close to entering a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Sorry if it was unclear...I was talking about the prefrontal trough as far as focus for homegrown convection. I was saying that I'm pinning my severe hopes on those storms because I'm not so sold on the late monday night MCS being severe. That's plausible, given how these types of systems seem to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 really liking my area tomorrow...will be out in McHenry Co most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The LLJ is going to be positioned directly over Lower MI tomorrow evening, so I think coverage should become pretty widespread after dark. I'm hoping most areas can pick up at least 0.25", as we're perilously close to entering a drought. I'm hoping so. It seems like Minnesota and Wisconsin have been hogging all the rain lately. The central and southern parts of the Mississippi valley are even dryer than the southern Great Lakes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Local stations talking about big storms in the region tomorrow. RAP Cape @ 19z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 really liking my area tomorrow...will be out in McHenry Co most of the day. this. Liking a few semi discrete supercells in northern IL/southern WI tomorrow evening. I'll most likely be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 RAP looks like is going to be really late with the MCS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 models have really toned down the frontal passage this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 models have really toned down the frontal passage this afternoon. Yeah the models have diverged significantly with respect to convective evolution for today. Really making things difficult with respect to pinpointing the best areas for convective initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 some turd rain this morning...enough to wet the pavement... Looks like the MSP area really got some rainfall. Expecting big rises on the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looking more of a linear threat for the overnight hours tonight across the Buckeye State... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looking more of a linear threat for the overnight hours tonight across the Buckye State... RAP has also been insisting on storms developing (ahead of th storms in WI/IL) around Detroit and Toledo late today (21z-03z) along some convergence boundary. The boundary resembles a lake breeze, but I can't say for sure what's triggring the storms on the RAP (as you would think with the mid 90s and SW winds it's predicting a lake breeze would be a non-factor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 It looks like the best shear parameters coupled to 1000+ j/kg CAPE will be on an axis from south central WI to northwest lower MI. The instability is more elevated though. Hopefully what forms can maintain intensity crossing lake Michigan. There will probably be earlier popups in the central part of the state due to 2000+ j/kg CAPE and eroding CINH, but that will be in a lower shear environment. Don't know if these might be more severe anyways due to higher surface based CAPE. I'm worried about the lake breeze screwing the GRR area out of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Initiation west of Madison. Can't say I'm thrilled about having it occur so early, but bring it on. With any luck, maybe we get a couple rounds of showers/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Cell just formed north of Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Today looks no better than the last several events around here. Scattered storms with isolated severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 yeah just a wait and see event, I was a bit more optimistic yesterday. I'll just hope for a squall line after 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Liking my chances for a squall line here this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Some decent towers bubbling up just west of Knoxville Iowa, and southwest of Waterloo. Also just west of Eau Claire Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Some decent towers bubbling up just west of Knoxville Iowa, and southwest of Waterloo. Also just west of Eau Claire Wisconsin. Those must be forming on the cold front. 12z NMM goes nuts with the storms in WI! Probably not the right solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm watch 308 issued for most of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That narrow line of towers from near Cedar Rapids down to west of Ottumwa has had the look that it could go at any time for awhile now. Gotta be getting close. So far the updrafts are getting pushed over by the strong mid-level winds. Instability continues to slowly build though. Surface cape near 2000j/kg feeding into that area. Updrafts should become strong enough to not get pushed over and punch through the cap before much longer I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 21kft west of Cedar Rapids now. Towers finally might be getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Cell just went up near Freeport. Dewpoints pooling along the front in the mid 60s. SWS out on it. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 202 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 ILZ003-004-281945- BOONE IL-WINNEBAGO IL- 202 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... AT 157 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PECATONICA... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PECATONICA... WINNEBAGO... LAKE SUMMERSET... DURAND... ROCKTON... MACHESNEY PARK... SOUTH BELOIT... ROSCOE... THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED... ROCKFORD SPEEDWAY AND WINNEBAGO COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. LAT...LON 4250 8899 4241 8887 4220 8937 4220 8940 4250 8940 TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 234DEG 39KT 4226 8949 $$ BEACHLER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The developing convection from Cedar Rapids to Ottumwa is where I would expect the line to form and move east given current parameters. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 So far this looks like much of the rest of 2012 for much of this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 So far this looks like much of the rest of 2012 for much of this area... Nice drawing! I'm guessing that depicts uni-directional shear and elevated convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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