Hoosier Posted May 26, 2012 Author Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm uneasy about tomorrow. Shortwave riding around the ridge into the area. Warm front in the vicinity. Strong CAPEs, decent hodos, respectable bulk shear. 00z EMC WRF makes for a very ugly evening tomorrow for nrn IL/IN. Not sure it will get that bad, but definitely a bit uneasy. LCL's look kinda high to me. Not really seeing much of a tornado threat at this point. Certainly can't discount other types of severe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 26, 2012 Author Share Posted May 26, 2012 LCL's look kinda high to me. Not really seeing much of a tornado threat at this point. Certainly can't discount other types of severe though. BTW I am basing that off of the NAM. GFS would be more favorable in that regard but not sure I trust its thermos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm uneasy about tomorrow. Shortwave riding around the ridge into the area. Warm front in the vicinity. Strong CAPEs, decent hodos, respectable bulk shear. 00z EMC WRF makes for a very ugly evening tomorrow for nrn IL/IN. http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ Not sure it will get that bad, but definitely a bit uneasy. I think this has the right idea just probably too far South and probably a touch too early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Severe thunderstorm warning just north of Davenport, IA. Heading your way Cyclone! SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012 IAC045-163-ILC161-195-260630- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-120526T0630Z/ SCOTT IA-CLINTON IA-ROCK ISLAND IL-WHITESIDE IL- 1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WHITESIDE...NORTHEASTERN ROCK ISLAND...SOUTHERN CLINTON AND NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES... AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR DONAHUE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF DAVENPORT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELDRIDGE...DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...LONG GROVE...DEWITT...PARK VIEW...SCOTT COUNTY PARK...MALONE...MCCAUSLAND...PRINCETON...LOW MOOR...FOLLETTS...PRINCETON WILDLIFE AREA...CLINTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...PORT BYRON...ROCK CREEK PARK...CORDOVA...CAMANCHE... CLINTON...ALBANY...HILLSDALE...EAST CLINTON...GARDEN PLAIN AND NEWTON CORNERS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 282 AND 283. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Severe thunderstorm warning just north of Davenport, IA. Heading your way Cyclone! Yeah been watching it. Nice light show on the western horizon ATM. Cell is slowly dying off though from the looks of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Yeah been watching it. Nice light show on the western horizon ATM. Cell is slowly dying off though from the looks of things. Looks like a typical thunderstorm at this point. Lot more thunderstorm action further north. Cells starting to pop in S WI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm liking the Alpena area for an MCS possible derecho on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The desperation of no tornadoes in '12 is starting to get the best of me lol. Thinking of heading out to Nebraska or northern KS tomorrow. Setup is far from perfect but I'm fiending for tornadogenesis lol. My regular chase buddy is stuck in MO this weekend with his wife, so may have to make the trek alone. My other friends just aren't that into chasing unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Saginaw just clocked a 75 MPH wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Saginaw just clocked a 75 MPH wind gust. Browne Field KHYX 271412Z AUTO 32037G65KT 10SM SCT010 SCT028 OVC065 18/16 A3019 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Cyclone already showing 86F...holy crap...100F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 beautiful ridge rollers in Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Cyclone already showing 86F...holy crap...100F? 87/66 now with full sun. Chickened out on the chase at the last minute. Gotta be honest the 5% SPC tornado probs basically made my final decision lol. Probably be kicking myself later today, but oh well. Still like the area just east of Hill City later today. That's where I would have targeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 Slight risk for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Slight risk for tomorrow. Somewhat interesting setup for eastern Iowa tomorrow. Frontal timing slowed a bit with the 12z guidance. As SPC mentioned with the latest update the shear is pretty marginal for tornadoes, but overall bulk shear and decent instability look nice for general severe. Still wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated tornado or two somewhere along that line. Some of the soundings show just enough turning in the lower few km to keep things a bit interesting. The NAM is probably overdoing the instability again (2500j/kg), but there should be a narrow axis of decent moisture just ahead of the CF late tomorrow. If we can get instability close to 2000j/kg over a narrow corridor I'll be happy. EDIT: 4km NAM blows up a nice looking broken line of cells in eastern Iowa up into Wisconsin late tomorrow. Nice tongue of theta-e feeding into eastern Iowa just off the surface late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Lovin' the classic ridge riders going around MI and down into OH/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 We been on the edge all day. We got .58" here while close to 2" fell a county to my north. It only got up to 77 too, and is now back down to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 DVN threw a wet blanket on tomorrow's setup. Don't know if I 100% agree with this, but it certainly isn't a huge setup nonetheless. Think we may see a little more than what they're advertising here though... AGAIN POOR SHEAR AND FORCING PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO LAST FRONT SUGGESTING SCATTERED STORMS ALONG FRONT. LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG FRONT LATE PM IF T/TD REACH 86/63 WITH SBCAPE AOA 1200 J/KG. MAX HAIL SIZE UP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS UP TO 50-60 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HENCE...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY EVENING HOURS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER PROPERLY...BUT THIS WOULD STILL BE MARGINAL...SPOTTY AND LOWER END SEVERE STORM EVENT IF IT OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 As far as tomorrow goes... imo it screams late-night dying MCS for SEMI. I think to get anything severe we'll need some storms to initiate right over us in the evening...which a few models have shown happening and DTX mentions in their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 As far as tomorrow goes... imo it screams late-night dying MCS for SEMI. I think to get anything severe we'll need some storms to initiate right over us in the evening...which a few models have shown happening and DTX mentions in their AFD not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 As far as tomorrow goes... imo it screams late-night dying MCS for SEMI. I think to get anything severe we'll need some storms to initiate right over us in the evening...which a few models have shown happening and DTX mentions in their AFD There might be 2 waves tomorrow, 1 that forms on the prefrontal trough/land-lake interaction boundary across GRR's area and then the 2nd wave will be on the warm front. Also I don't expect the stuff to be dying as it comes in even at night, the CAPEs stay high and the LLJ kicks in around/after 00z. I think tomorrow is actually looking really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 not really To which part? Curious what you are thinking on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Looking at it again I guess I was under estimating how much instability there'd be late at night. Still, the NAM only shows around 30 kts of shear and the GFS only 750 j/kg of CAPE. LLJ will kick in at just around the right time though, so that's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 To which part? Curious what you are thinking on this. based on timing alone...the "we'll need storms to initiate right over us in the evening" line is way off. Frontal initiation will be in Iowa or far western Illinois and push into MI later in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 based on timing alone...the "we'll need storms to initiate right over us in the evening" line is way off. Frontal initiation will be in Iowa or far western Illinois and push into MI later in the evening. There will be stuff forming in Michigan along the prefrontal trough/land-lake interaction boundary also late in the afternoon. This is very typical to setups like this. SPC 4km WRF show this starting to occur at the very end of the run. Both DTX and GRR made mention of this occurring in their AFDs also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 There will be stuff forming in Michigan along the prefrontal trough/land-lake interaction boundary also late in the afternoon. This is very typical to setups like this. SPC 4km WRF show this starting to occur at the very end of the run. Both DTX and GRR made mention of this occurring in their AFDs also. I wasn't paying attention to that play but I don't see overnight MCS activity putting a damp on those prospects either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 87/66 now with full sun. Chickened out on the chase at the last minute. Gotta be honest the 5% SPC tornado probs basically made my final decision lol. Probably be kicking myself later today, but oh well. Still like the area just east of Hill City later today. That's where I would have targeted. Looks like I would have busted. Really didn't think there would be as many tornadoes as there has been up in Nebraska. I'll save today's real bust for tomorrow in Iowa lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I wasn't paying attention to that play but I don't see overnight MCS activity putting a damp on those prospects either. I think hm8 is talking about a dying MCS moving in late Monday Night, not tonight. Which if this slows up any the cold front might not come through until well after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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