Hoosier Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Some differences in how the models are handling this system, but it appears there will be enough instability/shear for possible severe storms. There is a glaring factor with this setup, and it is capping/warm mid levels. That may be tough to overcome south of say central WI/Iowa but we'll see. Possible that this event lingers into Friday...then maybe another system after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Looks like moisture might be a bit on the low side as well. Synoptically it looks pretty good though, and there should be plenty of wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Looks like the NAM and GFS both show the warm front lifting back up into MI on Saturday...NAM has a pretty strong cap. Nocturnal LLJ might help with that though. EDIT: I assume we'll just use this thread for the weekend system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Upgrade to Moderate ----- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 frankthetank special...shiitty chasing territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 frankthetank special...shiitty chasing territory. It looks like the main threat should be damaging winds anyway. Certainly a good potential for a tornado or two, but probably not worth chasing in NW/WC Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Storms are starting to form further south. Severe t-storm warning in far NW WI atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Tornado watch just issued for portions of the UP, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA NORTHERN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN LAKE SUPERIOR EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF IRONWOOD MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MN INTO NRN IA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO NWRN/WEST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES NNEWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING THERMAL GRADIENT...WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...STRONG FORCING AND INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045. ...WEISS Probabilities of: 40/10 Tornado, 60/20 Wind, 40/10 Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Just about here... First rain in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 ARX Damage reports: 0400 PM TSTM WND DMG FOUNTAIN 43.74N 92.13W 05/24/2012 FILLMORE MN TRAINED SPOTTER UTILITY POLES BLOWN DOWN ON MAIN STREET 0315 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SW WILTON 43.80N 90.54W 05/24/2012 MONROE WI PUBLIC CLUSTER OF MAPLE TREES DAMAGED/BLOWN DOWN 0425 PM TSTM WND GST HARMONY 43.56N 92.01W 05/24/2012 M64 MPH FILLMORE MN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE 0450 PM TSTM WND GST HAWKEYE 42.94N 91.95W 05/24/2012 M53 MPH FAYETTE IA EMERGENCY MNGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 how can I move the severe weather to my area, anyone know a good rain dance? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Just about here... First rain in a long time. Looks like you'll miss the severe cells. One north, one south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I fell asleep as it moved through. I guess that 2 hours of sleep last nite didn't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Gonna make a run at that supercell heading towards Iowa City. Might crap out before I get there but worth a shot I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Gonna make a run at that supercell heading towards Iowa City. Might crap out before I get there but worth a shot I guess.. Looking like all you are chasing is a brief downpour. For this area it has been one dud after another for the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The east-central part of this line has really dried up. Be lucky to get a couple drops here tonight! Edit: A cell just popped just south of Moline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 More storms firing up west of DeKalb. Things could be getting more interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The Iowa City cell **** the bed as soon as I got on it. I figured it was a long shot but what the hell. Did have a nice blocky, yet somewhat elevated looking wall cloud before it died. Storm structure actually wasn't too bad for a short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 SPC has a the Plains and much of the GL as areas of interest, I guess for Day 4 and Day 5 (Sunday/Monday) They haven't changed much since I saw them this morning. Make me wonder what the model agreement is on the potential for Severe in this area (NE IL/ SE WI/ NW IN) for Monday/Monday night. VALID 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE...BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THAT A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES DAY5. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ERODE THE WARM EML ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST SUCH THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BY LATE IN THE WEEK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLAINS. SRN EXTENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE EACH OF THESE DAYS IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT LIKELY LIMITED BY HEIGHT FALLS THAT SHOULD EXTEND INTO KS/MO. ..DARROW.. 05/24/2012 It will be an interesting end to what is shaping up to be a hot and humid weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 When confirmed, the tor that occured in the Wausau, WI area will be the first WI tor of the year. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=83220&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 When confirmed, the tor that occured in the Wausau, WI area will be the first WI tor of the year. http://www.crh.noaa....=83220&source=0 Yes it will, and it's been awhile since we've gone at least this long without a tornado (1997, when we didn't get one until June). Plenty of severe weather in the state in the form of damaging winds and hail already this year, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Tornado Warnings with 2 areas of strong rotation moving into the Montreal metro area. EDIT: Tornado warning now for Montreal Island which is Downtown Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 An updated warning from EC Montreal stated that damage caused by a tornado was reported in between Mirabel and Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 An updated warning from EC Montreal stated that damage caused by a tornado was reported in between Mirabel and Montreal. That looks like a nasty cell. Drifting towards N VT by the looks of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm uneasy about tomorrow. Shortwave riding around the ridge into the area. Warm front in the vicinity. Strong CAPEs, decent hodos, respectable bulk shear. 00z EMC WRF makes for a very ugly evening tomorrow for nrn IL/IN. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Not sure it will get that bad, but definitely a bit uneasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Nice elevated supercell just north of I-80, between IOW and DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm uneasy about tomorrow. Shortwave riding around the ridge into the area. Warm front in the vicinity. Strong CAPEs, decent hodos, respectable bulk shear. 00z EMC WRF makes for a very ugly evening tomorrow for nrn IL/IN. http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ Not sure it will get that bad, but definitely a bit uneasy. Interesting... If anything it looks like the soils get a good soaking in this neck of the woods. That would likely shave off a few degrees on Sunday. And slow up the warm front as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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