CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Ryan haven't looked at much but does tomorrow aftn look interesting? Super impressive EML. Dynamics look meh. Not sure how this all evolves. Obviously the presence of the EML and NW flow at 500mb raises eyebrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 It's definitely unimpressive for eastern areas... looks like W NE and especially E NY. Wiz chase up 87 in NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 It's definitely unimpressive for eastern areas... looks like W NE and especially E NY. Wiz chase up 87 in NY? Any good ideas for a location? Still deciding on what to do about tomorrow...guess it depends on how it looks tonight but we may either leave tomorrow morning and pick a location or stay here and see if something pops close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Any good ideas for a location? Still deciding on what to do about tomorrow...guess it depends on how it looks tonight but we may either leave tomorrow morning and pick a location or stay here and see if something pops close by. Should have a better idea by 18z runs I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Should have a better idea by 18z runs I'd say. I'll be going to a cookout today...hopefully my brother brings his laptop. It's days like today of why I bought a cell phone and a great one where I can check models and radar on the go with 3G internet. Stupid phone had to take a suicide dive out of my pocket and into the toilet about 6 weeks ago. Won't be able to get a new one until the end of June either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Just looked at a few things. Good mid level lapse rates and the warm front could be interesting. I know shear isn't super impressive but big CAPE rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Just looked at a few things. Good mid level lapse rates and the warm front could be interesting. I know shear isn't super impressive but big CAPE rules. Besides the meh deep shear lift could be a big question as well and I think is probably the biggest concern at this point. While there isn't a great deal of CIN in place any CIN is alot when you don't have much in the way of lift around. Just have to see what happens. It was good to see 6z runs beef up shear a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Besides the meh deep shear lift could be a big question as well and I think is probably the biggest concern at this point. While there isn't a great deal of CIN in place any CIN is alot when you don't have much in the way of lift around. Just have to see what happens. It was good to see 6z runs beef up shear a bit. The NAM impressed me. That boundary may be all you need. 00z tomorrow night looked ok. Notice the weenie 925mb llj on twister data. We'll see how the runs today go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I do wish we had a better s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The NAM impressed me. That boundary may be all you need. 00z tomorrow night looked ok. Notice the weenie 925mb llj on twister data. We'll see how the runs today go. BDL had like SSE winds at 10 knots with 30 knots out of the NW at 500mb. That actually is a decent amount of deep layer shear because though the speed difference is unimpressive the directional change is impressive. 0-3km hodographs look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I do wish we had a better s/w. Yeah that's the downer. Heights do fall a bit during the afternoon/evening though. So at least we're not building in some awful ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 NAM does have a 9.0c/km lapse rate from 550-700mb at BDL at 01z Monday. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 BDL had like SSE winds at 10 knots with 30 knots out of the NW at 500mb. That actually is a decent amount of deep layer shear because though the speed difference is unimpressive the directional change is impressive. 0-3km hodographs look good. Yeah I saw that and was like "whoa." Maybe another June '95 hailer moving SSE? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Yeah I saw that and was like "whoa." Maybe another June '95 hailer moving SSE? LOL. http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2012/04/07/a-look-back-at-the-biggest-hail-storm-in-decades/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2012/04/07/a-look-back-at-the-biggest-hail-storm-in-decades/ Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Lock it in. 70 DBZ at 30kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Sunday night looks a lot worse on overnight model runs. Too much CIN, not enough lift, and boundary layer is relatively dry. Kinda surprised the MCS in Michigan right now isn't producing severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The NAM impressed me. That boundary may be all you need. 00z tomorrow night looked ok. Notice the weenie 925mb llj on twister data. We'll see how the runs today go. The 6z NAM was eye opening. If we can get a LLJ like that it could be quite interesting. Hopefully I'm not leaving for the cookout until after the 12z runs come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 NAM should be coming out soon!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 70 DBZ at 30kft. No thanks, not on my garden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 NAM doesn't look too bad at all tomorrow...certainly not any worse than the past few runs. Tuesday also looks a tad better as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 No thanks, not on my garden Or windshield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 No thanks, not on my garden Hail seriously screwed up my vegetable garden in Westchester in Summer 2008...the plants recovered somewhat after a couple weeks but they were basically flattened by the storm. 2008 was a persistent cold pool severe summer if I recall correctly. I remember a lot of hail and heavy rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Saw a simulated radar image on twitter for tomorrow afternoon...had a pretty impressive complex moving thorugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 meh, thermodyanimcs look kicking for the southern dacks tomorrow but any real trigger is lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Just a thought but have to watch if any type of MCS develops and moves into NYS and where it travels...that could leave a leftover boundary for the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Dr. Forbes has us at a TOR con 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 That's for Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Tomorrow as well for northern NY into VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 That's for Tuesday I thought that Tuesday was meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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