free_man Posted May 27, 2012 Author Share Posted May 27, 2012 No place to live if you have a great interest in svr weather. I can remember only a handful of severe events...one was in August of 1992', that storm/ storms I recall as a young child were INSANE, another was the end of the tornadic cell in 2010 that ripped through Bridgeport...I was getting off 95 (Exit 41, Marsh Hill Rd in Orange/Milford) driving towards West Haven and damn a driving rain came in and trees bent to the ground, it was a scary 2 minutes I'd have to say. Came home to find my neighbor's tree ripped out of the ground and all the lawn furniture pinned against the fence. Flip on the computer and found the storm was tornado warned. lol Interesting, last week I was watching home videos I made with the VCR camcorder, and one was from Aug '92 and an overnight thunderstorm complex- Cape Cod, Falmouth MA. there was very frequent lightning, hail and flooding rain for many hours. Even some 40+mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I wonder how far east in NY the svr threat will be on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 If I lived along the coast I'd hang myself. Agree 100% It ****ing sucks living here. The only time I can get a decent thunderstorm is in late August. Winter sucks too, lots of mixing events. I cannot wain to move. I wonder how far east in NY the svr threat will be on Tuesday? I think around the Catskills/Albany area. You going chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Agree 100% It ****ing sucks living here. The only time I can get a decent thunderstorm is in late August. Winter sucks too, lots of mixing events. I cannot wain to move. I think around the Catskills/Albany area. You going chasing? It will probably depend on how far east into NY the threat will exist...could be much better across western and central NY. Still haven't decided how far west we will go...3 hours may be max...unless things turn out to look VERY GOOD then we could stretch to 4 or 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Southern Long Island...near the Sunrise Highway I presume? TERRIBLE spot for severe or snow. I'm up by the Hempstead turnpike(NY-24) Pretty much. The only interesting severe event I remember was in 2008 when an EF-0 tornado went down my street. Other than that most storm find a way to **** me over whenever possible. It will probably depend on how far east into NY the threat will exist...could be much better across western and central NY. Still haven't decided how far west we will go...3 hours may be max...unless things turnN out to look VERY GOOD then we could stretch to 4 or 5 hours. Yea, I think the Catskills could see an isolated storm, but the area around Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo will be the real big winners. Binghamton and Oneonta could get lucky but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I'm up by the Hempstead turnpike(NY-24) Pretty much. The only interesting severe event I remember was in 2008 when an EF-0 tornado went down my street. Other than that most storm find a way to **** me over whenever possible. Yea, I think the Catskills could see an isolated storm, but the area around Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo will be the real big winners. Binghamton and Oneonta could get lucky but I doubt it. Looking at the NAM/21z SPC SREF Tuesday looks pretty meh even out for those areas. Maybe you could be like that lady who caught the tornado crossing the NYS thruway near Amsterdam on video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Oh ok, so a bit farther north, 5-10 miles maybe. Used to deliver glass down there, one of my fondest weather memories on Long Island was driving through heavy walls of snow from snow squalls in Bayshore. More like 5 miles tops Usually south of sunrise is where marginal events are rain, I see lots of sleet bb's in those events, they are a b!tch to shovel up after. The best. Was after the dec 2010 blizzard and most of the roads near me were closed due to abandoned cars, me and my neighbor charged people to dig their cars out of the snow drifts. Made some good money too. Looking at the NAM/21z SPC SREF Tuesday looks pretty meh even out for those areas. So this is really a mainly Western NY event? I thought that most of western and central and parts of eastern NY would get into at least some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 More like 5 miles tops Usually south of sunrise is where marginal events are rain, I see lots of sleet bb's in those events, they are a b!tch to shovel up after. The best. Was after the dec 2010 blizzard and most of the roads near me were closed due to abandoned cars, me and my neighbor charged people to dig their cars out of the snow drifts. Made some good money too. So this is really a mainly Western NY event? I thought that most of western and central and parts of eastern NY would get into at least some action. The better combination of shear/instability looks to be across western NY and northern NY. Shear really weakens east of this area and I think cloud cover could really tamper instability. I'm just not too impressed for a good enough event to go chase...there will be action just nothing impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 SPC with the slight off to our west. 3z SPC SREF actually looked quite decent across NY and even into VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Well we definitely look like we're heading into an EML day on Monday. Models show very impressive lapse rates Monday across most of SNE and adjacent parts of NY. Unfortunately there's not much of a trigger and wind fields are quite weak through the troposphere. Heights do fall a bit toward 00z but widespread convection is uncertain this way. Tuesday is also a bit of a fail with lapse rates still steep but little deep layer shear. Maybe we get some severe on Wednesday if the front slows down a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 SPC with the slight off to our west. 3z SPC SREF actually looked quite decent across NY and even into VT. For what day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 For what day? Tuesday. We're in 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Well we definitely look like we're heading into an EML day on Monday. Models show very impressive lapse rates Monday across most of SNE and adjacent parts of NY. Unfortunately there's not much of a trigger and wind fields are quite weak through the troposphere. Heights do fall a bit toward 00z but widespread convection is uncertain this way. Tuesday is also a bit of a fail with lapse rates still steep but little deep layer shear. Maybe we get some severe on Wednesday if the front slows down a bit? The thermodynamic environment tomorrow is going to be pretty sick and dynamically we are borderline, however, I'm real worried about lift. With such large amounts of cape though it doesn't take much lift, however, have to worry about capping with the EML moving in. I know the warm front will be around but how often do warm fronts spark off major severe here? ALY mentioned something about a weak backdoor front possibly working in from the east so something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 The thermodynamic environment tomorrow is going to be pretty sick and dynamically we are borderline, however, I'm real worried about lift. With such large amounts of cape though it doesn't take much lift, however, have to worry about capping with the EML moving in. I know the warm front will be around but how often do warm fronts spark off major severe here? ALY mentioned something about a weak backdoor front possibly working in from the east so something to watch. There doesn't appear to be too much CIN tomorrow. 700mb temps are progged to be 6-7C... which certainly isn't bad at all! But yeah you're right there's not much large scale lift so it will be tough to overcome any CIN that is present. We're also looking at some pretty weak wind fields. Granted there is NW flow aloft but the GFS/NAM can't seem to agree on strength. For BDL the GFS actually has a nice NW 35 knot flow 00z Monday night at 500mb with a SE flow in the BL. You wind up getting pretty nice deep layer shear with that kind of vertical wind profile. The NAM, on the other hand, keeps 500mb flow less than 25 knots which basically sticks a fork in organized convection. I think we may wind up with 2 nocturnal complexes tonight (weak) and tomorrow night (stronger). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 There doesn't appear to be too much CIN tomorrow. 700mb temps are progged to be 6-7C... which certainly isn't bad at all! But yeah you're right there's not much large scale lift so it will be tough to overcome any CIN that is present. We're also looking at some pretty weak wind fields. Granted there is NW flow aloft but the GFS/NAM can't seem to agree on strength. For BDL the GFS actually has a nice NW 35 knot flow 00z Monday night at 500mb with a SE flow in the BL. You wind up getting pretty nice deep layer shear with that kind of vertical wind profile. The NAM, on the other hand, keeps 500mb flow less than 25 knots which basically sticks a fork in organized convection. I think we may wind up with 2 nocturnal complexes tonight (weak) and tomorrow night (stronger). There are still several differences between the NAM/GFS for tomorrow which are pretty huge. The NAM is a tad stronger with the ridging here in the mid-levels which keeps the stronger dynamics more north. The GFS isn't as strong so the stronger dynamics are driven a bit further southward. Either way though there really isn't much in the way of mid or upper level support...unless we can happen to get 35-40 knots of wind in here at 500mb and given how lift won't be all that strong it will really be difficult to get widespread and organized convection which can sustain itself. This isn't to say there won't be anything...one or two cells certainly would be capable of some pretty large hail tomorrow. It will be interesting if we can get some sort of complex in here tomorrow night...if so that actually be a focal point for Tuesday, especially if it leaves any outflow boundaries behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Actually the 6z NAM is much more impressive with 500mb winds tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 6z NAM actually has some nice hodo's...llvl shear is meh but not bad helicity with strong instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 00z Euro at 144 hrs looks pretty impressive for some portion of the East Coast possibly, just taking a glance... GFS/Canuck and the majority of the ensembles all have it in various forms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Euro at 144 hrs looks pretty impressive, just taking a glance... That setup is a fail for us. Too much marine influence in the boundary layer with crap for mid level lapse rates with SW mid tropospheric flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Maybe better to post in the SE/Mid Atlantic thread...just saw that LLJ on the Euro and raised a bit of an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 That setup is a fail for us. Too much marine influence in the boundary layer with crap for mid level lapse rates with SW mid tropospheric flow. That screams heavy rain for us Much better for the mid-Atlantic and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I think for tomorrow as far as getting the better shear in here alot will also depend on how strong that main s/w is on the US/Canadien border across MT/ND...a stronger s/w will yield to the ridge flattening out a bit more giving us stronger shear. If the s/w isn't as strong the ridge stays stronger with the stronger belt of westerlies off to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Wiz check out the 6z NAM for BDL on Bufkit. Beautiful EML with 0-3km helicity near 300 m2/s2 Monday evening!! The problem is deep layer shear looks pretty meh with weak mid level flow and enough CIN beneath the EML with a lack of strong synoptic scale forcing to help remove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Wiz check out the 6z NAM for BDL on Bufkit. Beautiful EML with 0-3km helicity near 300 m2/s2 Monday evening!! The problem is deep layer shear looks pretty meh with weak mid level flow and enough CIN beneath the EML with a lack of strong synoptic scale forcing to help remove it. Bufkit is pretty impressive! Fat Cape profile with 750-500 lapse rates near 8 C/KM! Lift is going to be a major issue tomorrow...I just don't think we will have strong enough lift. With that said even if one cell gets going though it's going to have plenty to work with. Lack of stronger shear and deep layer shear probably neglects any tornado potential, however, we could see a prolific hailer if something were to pop...maybe 1.75''-2''?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Bufkit is pretty impressive! Fat Cape profile with 750-500 lapse rates near 8 C/KM! Lift is going to be a major issue tomorrow...I just don't think we will have strong enough lift. With that said even if one cell gets going though it's going to have plenty to work with. Lack of stronger shear and deep layer shear probably neglects any tornado potential, however, we could see a prolific hailer if something were to pop...maybe 1.75''-2''?? You need some shear to get hail that big... unless the storm rotates you're not getting golf balls! It's a questionable threat tomorrow. Obviously the presence of an EML is a big caution flag as is the NW flow in the mid troposphere. Unfortunately the flow isn't all that strong so it's a bit unclear how all of this will evolve. 700mb temps cool, CIN appears to get removed during teh day per BUFKIT soundings, and 500mb heights fall. Again no strong trigger and modest mid level flow. Just an interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 You need some shear to get hail that big... unless the storm rotates you're not getting golf balls! It's a questionable threat tomorrow. Obviously the presence of an EML is a big caution flag as is the NW flow in the mid troposphere. Unfortunately the flow isn't all that strong so it's a bit unclear how all of this will evolve. 700mb temps cool, CIN appears to get removed during teh day per BUFKIT soundings, and 500mb heights fall. Again no strong trigger and modest mid level flow. Just an interesting setup. There is a brief period where CIN does look to become removed but it's a small window and by 0z or so CIN increases with loss of daytime heating. As far as the shear goes it's very up in the air at this time b/c we seem to be right on the borderline between awful shear and somewhat decent shear, you slide this boundary 50-70 miles in either direction (north or south) and that would be substantial. Might have to hope for a sea breeze tomorrow to perhaps provide a little extra lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 This is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 I could actually see eastern NY along the MA/VT border as having a decent shot tomorrow. Warm front will be hung up in that area and there looks to be a great combination of the stronger shear and high instability...plus topography could act as a source of lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 This thread is a triple bunner... btw. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2012 Share Posted May 27, 2012 Ryan haven't looked at much but does tomorrow aftn look interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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