ChrisM Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm feeling svr somewhere today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 FWIW... The RAP really stalls the front out over CT/RI later. Mesoscale boundary interactions will likely lead to a messy day of convection in southern areas with sea breeze fronts and terrain producing all sorts of crap lol. Yeah maybe a south coast convective day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Yeah maybe a south coast convective day? Seems like a south coast special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 What do you think about east of 495 on Monday Wiz? Any chance for a storm to sustain itself into eastern MA? If anything does I think it will be elevated but I think it's central/eastern NY/western MA/CT that have the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Just woke up...guess today looks interesting? Have to look! I have to work too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 thats impressive Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Yeah that's really not bad. Pretty unstable outside already thus far with increasing shear. NAM/GFS do spit out some QPF later on so we'll see. I'm working 2:45 to 6 so I expect something in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Holy crap at the instability! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Just need to overcome some of this CIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Just need to overcome some of this CIN That happens once I leave for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 SEE TEXT!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The threat locally for something truly interesting today looks to be confined to a very small area, basically southern CT into the NYC metro, in an equally small temporal window from mid afternoon until dark, which is maybe why SPC is ignoring it. Could be a nice surprise supercell or two, maybe, if a couple of models are to be believed. Low level shear isn't really sufficient, so it would probably require a sea-breeze or other boundary in just the right place and time... One can hope, anyway. Be nice if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 That would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The threat locally for something truly interesting today looks to be confined to a very small area, basically southern CT into the NYC metro, in an equally small temporal window from mid afternoon until dark, which is maybe why SPC is ignoring it. Could be a nice surprise supercell or two, maybe, if a couple of models are to be believed. Low level shear isn't really sufficient, so it would probably require a sea-breeze or other boundary in just the right place and time... One can hope, anyway. Be nice if this happens. Agreed. Models have outlined this area for the last 36 hours really. Deep layer shear does increase a bit this afternoon across CT and the Hudson Valley. So we do approach 30 knots of 0-6km of deep layer shear which isn't awful especially given >2000 j/kg of MLCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 MCD...watch unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Storms firing rapidly across NW NJ into PA...strong instability there just ****ty shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Storms firing rapidly across NW NJ into PA...strong instability there just ****ty shear. Maybe I will get something down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Storms firing rapidly across NW NJ into PA...strong instability there just ****ty shear. Maybe I will get something down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 MCD...watch unlikely Actually, it is almost certain. Dueling MCDs, never really seen that before... New MD text: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0909 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...NJ...CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 261808Z - 261845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO THE NYC METROPOLITAN AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ON A HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUGGEST THAT A WATCH IS WARRANTED. DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Actually, it is almost certain. Dueling MCDs, never really seen that before... New MD text: Bizarre. As is the text in the second MCD. They seem to have issued it because of the holiday weekend and the threat being in NYC metro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 MLCAPE >3000 j/kg is extremely impressive for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Bizarre. As is the text in the second MCD. They seem to have issued it because of the holiday weekend and the threat being in NYC metro lol. Yep, bizarre is the word. They took that second MCD down pretty fast, blink and you missed it, and the watch that was eventually issued doesn't even mention it, there's no "related MCD" link like there usually is. I think they're a little ashamed of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm interested to see what happens when the sea breeze front interacts with the cold front. Front is between HFD and BDL. So it will be soon that we start to see some interaction. May be the needed lift to break through the minimal remaining CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 I'm interested to see what happens when the sea breeze front interacts with the cold front. Front is between HFD and BDL. So it will be soon that we start to see some interaction. May be the needed lift to break through the minimal remaining CIN. Think this part of ct is in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 NWS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Big CB going up in Tolland County on Bolton/Coventry line. 64dbz up to 17kft. Nice looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 NWS FTW ?? Looks like convective initiation is occurring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 ?? Looks like convective initiation is occurring now. Lone wolf in Tolland, been stuck in clouds debris all day down in SECT, good forecast down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 If it holds together might get a piece of that Tolland storm at home, of course I am stuck in the soup at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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