SNE Convective/Thunder thread

[wxsniss]

1) where did Wiz decide to base his chase?

2) latest RAP looks to have best shear parameters along NY-VT border... any mets have comments on shear parameters Western Mass (I anticipate to be under the gun after 4pm at the earliest today)?

[Tropopause_Fold]

any one heard from wiz? good thing he's had 2 tor warned cells go by already. LOL.

[TalcottWx]

Must suck to live in a place that's 64 and cloudy while the other places are 90 and sunny not too far away. Oh...that and the lack of snow, interesting severe, hot days. Man, a weather fan's worst nightmare.

I'm responding to this in the banter thread.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just saw the cell near BTV has a warning now 2:18PM)

[radarman]

they're all PWSs...

CEF had a high of 73, nearest PWS stations had highs of 74.2, and 73.0. PWS stations closer to the river were all several degrees higher. Not claiming all PWS should be taken as gospel, but what I am claiming is that the moisture appears to be pooling near the valley floor, and it's legit mid-70s.

Ok. No more about Tds. Sorry Bob.

Big CU field now. We have echoes in Colrain, rain was hitting the ground in Shutesbury before drying up, a little something trying to get going in Leeds.

Don't expect these to amount to much, but the cap appears to be on the ropes.

[TalcottWx]

Front is to the N of SE MA.

Interesting that Brockton and surrounding areas is that hot on a south wind though. Of course we have that NE wind keeping me in the 60's so far, but that just seems plain hot for s winds.

[free_man]

visible satellite loop tells the story....the winners and losers.

glad I'm working tonight and have something to do. Hopefully Wiz sees his EF3

[TalcottWx]

Is there the possibility that the line behind the discrete cells rolls through our entire region as elevated storms past dark?

[MarkO]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/wfo/box/flash-vis.html

[moneypitmike]

What's the rush? Storms still hours away.

Just got back from my haircut. Overcast and thundering at the Pit.

83.1/72

[Damage In Tolland]

Not so sure...

several reasons:

-- storm motion is ENE so there isn't an immanent threat at the moment

-- synopsis doesn't support at the moment, with apparent resurgent push of marine/outlfow hybrid air mass careening into eastern NE - that air mass may actually get you guys in NE CT in 2 or 3 hours.

-- there seems to be a bit of ridge edging and CIN in the area.

The backdoor will not get close to ORH lol..it's stuck over NE Mass and is posed to move NE..not SW

[Baroclinic Zone]

Interesting that Brockton and surrounding areas is that hot on a south wind though. Of course we have that NE wind keeping me in the 60's so far, but that just seems plain hot for s winds.

Winds are pretty light though.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Is there the possibility that the line behind the discrete cells rolls through our entire region as elevated storms past dark?

That seems to make sense

[Tropopause_Fold]

The backdoor will not get close to ORH lol..it's stuck over NE Mass and is posed to move NE..not SW

winds have been NE at ORH for a couple of hours

[JJBASHB]

66/63 at KFIT meh Will take a lot to get this overcast out of here and pop temps

You might get a decent show back home, Dave. Even just a few miles west makes a difference. The front is basically overhead here. We get a sunny break, southerly winds, and the dew point creeps up a degree or two. Then, the winds turn ESE, it clouds over, and the dew point drops back down.

[Damage In Tolland]

winds have been NE at ORH for a couple of hours

I'm talking about his low overcast and fog stuff about that ripping thru all of SNE..It's sunny at ORH..and they actually may be in a good spot close to the boundary as it moves back NE

[powderfreak]

I wish I was back home...just awesome stuff for New England. Radar looks sweet too.

DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER CXX VAD AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM

EARLY AM CONVECTION SUGGEST BETTER LOW-LEVEL SRH/SHEAR PROFILES

FOR POSSIBLE SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ACROSS VERMONT. WE/LL CONTINUE

TO MONITOR THAT THREAT. STORMS ARE FORMING AT 1630Z ACROSS CENTRAL

NY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO OUR NY COUNTIES DURING

THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND THEN TRACK EWD INTO VT DURING THE MID-AFTN

HOURS. ANTICIPATE A FEW SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BANDS OF STRONG

TO SEVERE STORMS. THE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY HIGH...UPR 60S TO LOWER

70S...AND INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE

MID-UPR 80S IN SPOTS WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING

TO VERY UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...WHICH IS

RELATIVELY RARE FOR OUR AREA.

[Typhoon Tip]

The backdoor will not get close to ORH lol..it's stuck over NE Mass and is posed to move NE..not SW

It does appear the SW momentum might be maxing out. The band of denser strata that has been punch mightily toward the coast seems to have also slowed just slightly in the most recent frame.

Every late spring into summer so often there's a day where the coast suffers low 60s but then gets a whiplash burst to the mid 80s should the wind suddenly veer. It's tough to gauge whether that's this day.

Here in Westborough mass I am on the east side of that boundary by about 10 miles. My temp is stuck at 78 and it's humid.

[moneypitmike]

winds have been NE at ORH for a couple of hours

They've been solidly SE here, though the forecast was for southerly.

83.4/73

[OSUmetstud]

That 3.5" hail in Warren, NY has to be close to the state record. That's huge.

[Wonkis]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0149 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NH AND FAR WRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291849Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO VT WILL CONTINUE TO

PROGRESS EWD...BUT QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED AND WEAKEN INTO NH AND

WRN ME. ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE

HAIL...LIMITED COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE WARM

SECTOR...WITH CONFIRMED REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND DMGG WINDS

WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EWD

INTO NH AND ME...INSTABILITY BECOMES QUITE LIMITED EAST OF THE WARM

FRONT. WITH LINGERING STRATUS AND ANVILS OVERSPREADING THE

AREA...DESTABILIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY

PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AS THEY CROSS INTO NH...A RAPID WEAKENING TREND

IS LIKELY.

..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/29/2012

[Damage In Tolland]

It does appear the SW momentum might be maxing out. The band of denser strata that has been punch mightily toward the coast seems to have also slowed just slightly in the most recent frame.

Every late spring into summer so often there's a day where the coast suffers low 60s but then gets a whiplash burst to the mid 80s should the wind suddenly veer. It's tough to gauge whether that's this day.

Here in Westborough mass I am on the east side of that boundary by about 10 miles. My temp is stuck at 78 and it's humid.

Hopefully it rips back fgast enough for y'all up there in NE Mass and beyond to get in on some of the severe action.

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh my lord!

CEF:

291755 CLR 10 93 73 1813

[CoastalWx]

That 3.5" hail in Warren, NY has to be close to the state record. That's huge.

That was radar tagged right? Was it verified?

Edit saw it posted.

[Mr Torchey]

Impressive BDR is 84 with a due south wind this early in the warm season, hopefully that will allow for some fun later this evening.

[powderfreak]

Not claiming all PWS should be taken as gospel, but what I am claiming is that the moisture appears to be pooling near the valley floor, and it's legit mid-70s.

With dews in the low 70s as far north as the Canadian border in the BTV area, I see no reason why mid 70s can't be taking place much farther south in western SNE.

[Tropopause_Fold]

pretty nasty little cell in SE VT

[OSUmetstud]

That was radar tagged right? Was it verified?

Edit saw it posted.

SPC said it was sent in with a pic and a tape measure, too.

[MarkO]

clouds jsut broke up here in Lowell. Wonder if we see a spike in temp?

[Gwhizkids]

With dews in the low 70s as far north as the Canadian border in the BTV area, I see no reason why mid 70s can't be taking place much farther south in western SNE.

DP 73 at KDXR.