NJwinter23 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Things could still get very ugly west and along the Appalachians if things get very slow from blocking. In fact, the 6z GFS paints an alarming picture for the Mississippi to Ohio Valleys later next week. I love the veering profiles and EML for Sunday-Monday. Anything that comes over the ridge will certainly have a nice environment for sustainment. Unfortunately it looks like we're too far south for Sun-Mon MCS possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Unfortunately it looks like we're too far south for Sun-Mon MCS possibilities. We may be too far to the south, yes, especially Monday; but, never underestimate the power of Corfidi. Well the man is certainly prolific but I'm talking about his vectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 We may be too far to the south, yes, especially Monday; but, never underestimate the power of Corfidi. Well the man is certainly prolific but I'm talking about his vectors. never heard of this...I'll have to look into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 We may be too far to the south, yes, especially Monday; but, never underestimate the power of Corfidi. Well the man is certainly prolific but I'm talking about his vectors. Lol.. I think we only need to look back to last year's Memorial Day morning. That early morning MCS filled in southward and came through NJ/NYC completely unforecasted...granted, we didnt have a tropical system sitting under the ridge off the SE coast so idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wasn't about a year ago this month where we had those non moving Tstorms near Belchertown Mass. Looks similar today. Man you have a great memory. Even I had forgotten about this and it was in MBY. May 20th 2011... Damn thing just ripped 45 dBZ in place for a solid hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Lol.. I think we only need to look back to last year's Memorial Day morning. That early morning MCS filled in southward and came through NJ/NYC completely unforecasted...granted, we didnt have a tropical system sitting under the ridge off the SE coast so idk And of course I was awake at 6AM last Memorial Day writing about it lol http://www.examiner.com/article/storms-this-morning-followed-by-big-heat-severe-weather-outbreak-wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Maybe an MCS on Sunday tracking from northern Michigan into the eastern lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Paul, we had an unusual complex of severe thunderstorms (pulse-multicellular) move from the Southeast to the Northwest yesterday across the Delaware Valley: http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=0 A notable gradient developed in areas where the sun came out strongly (S NJ shot into the 80s) along with good upslope/moisture advection and vort to the east moving due north. While the old boundary on Saturday could certainly be interesting, I am still liking the idea for something to drop down around the ridge on Sunday. The EML advection + enhanced jet winds from encroaching ridge axis could provide an MCS potential maybe. We'll see. A lot has to do with what happens to our West first. Wow...that's pretty nuts! I think Sunday could certainly be interesting as well somewhere, you have that warm front lifting northward and there is some s/w energy which could spark action off well to our west which could certainly ride over the ridge. Sunday has a really good MCS potential to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Monday looks very interesting on the NAM, in fact that setup is almost like something you see in the mid-west area. The 12z NAM brings the front northward through CT/RI/western MA and stalls it out across NE MA and into S VT. Now this is where I say it's similar to what you see out west sometimes (and Ohio Valley region)...the NAM develops some extreme instability south of the warm front with SBcape values in the 2000-3000 J/KG range along with LI values of -4C to -6C...now why do I say that is similar to out west? Well, normally here when warm fronts stall just south of them we normally don't see instability values that extreme b/c we get cloud debris and showers and such. We would be lucky to see like 1000 J/KG. While the low-level shear is not very impressive, thanks to the warm front being in the vicinity there is a great deal of directional shear. If the NAM verifies we could certainly get some development along with the potential for a few strong to severe storms with hail being a huge threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 The GFS isn't as extreme as the NAM instability wise, however, it still is fairly impressive and is somewhat similar with regards to where the warm front stalls...it isn't exactly completely similar but pretty damn close which is impressive for 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 This would be nice, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 This would be nice, the instability being forecast is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 the instability being forecast is off the charts. It has TDs that are in the mid 70s which is likely too high, but the idea of instability is there I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It has TDs that are in the mid 70s which is likely too high, but the idea of instability is there I think. You know...those dewpoints may really be not that far off. Obviously though anytime you see dews that high you become skeptical but there is model support. The GFS is forecasting them, the NAM now is, and even the Euro looks to have low 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 You know...those dewpoints may really be not that far off. Obviously though anytime you see dews that high you become skeptical but there is model support. The GFS is forecasting them, the NAM now is, and even the Euro looks to have low 70's. It had weenie 76 dews..probably at least a few off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It had weenie 76 dews..probably at least a few off. yeah gfs gets BUF's dew to 74 degrees. I think getting to 70 is a decent possibilty, but higher than that is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It had weenie 76 dews..probably at least a few off. 76 seems too high. I could see 72-74F dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 What's ironic is the best looking juxtaposition of shear/instability in SNE over the next 3 days is actually over S CT/RI tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 26, 2012 Author Share Posted May 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Monday still looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Monday still looks interesting What do you think about east of 495 on Monday Wiz? Any chance for a storm to sustain itself into eastern MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The NAM does have an EML in here for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 The NAM does look decent for severe on Monday. Both the GFS and NAM have a remnant EML plume in here but the GFS has just horrific amounts of shear. Barely a breeze through the column. The NAM on the otherhand has enough shear, when coupled with impressive mid level lapse rates and instability, to produce something more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Big storms today south of Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Big storms today south of Pike? We'll see. Some signs point to yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 We'll see. Some signs point to yes. I won't be around..so we'll prob get slammed. Enjoy them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 12z ALB sounding had about 1800 j/kg of MUCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis for 14z already shows MLCAPE >1500 j/kg across most of N CT and W MA. Sun's out... dew points creeping up. SPC and BOX say no go... I'm not so sure... especially with 0-6km deep layer shear perking up to over 30 knots by 18z across many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Easy to see the front... GFL with a td of 53F... ALB with a td of 67F as of 14z. Continues crawling south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 Today seems like a slight risk day what are they seeing that noone else is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 26, 2012 Share Posted May 26, 2012 FWIW... The RAP really stalls the front out over CT/RI later. Mesoscale boundary interactions will likely lead to a messy day of convection in southern areas with sea breeze fronts and terrain producing all sorts of crap lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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