radiator Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I want a pony. Oops, wrong thread. What I meant to say was, how often does the SPC do a retrospective look at the accuracy of their forecast probability percentages, to see whether in hindsight when they have assigned (for example) a 30% probability of hail or 5% probability of tornado activity, do the long-term results show that those probabilities are realistic and skillful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I am so pissed my cell phone is broken. I literally bought that phone just for days like today...had 3G internet so we could get radar on the go, very good graphics so I could see the radar clearly, and I could post here from the car, and even better...I could take pics/video and upload them to the internet right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 That front is stuck right near ORH right now on visible. 2 different worlds. Nice to be on the correct side of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 9z SPC SREF...doesn't show much love for CT but for areas out west it looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 2 different worlds. Nice to be on the correct side of it Yeah if you like things stuck to your thighs. I'm fine with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 This is why probably going somewhere in like central Berkshire county is good to start off...easy access to get into southern VT if needed, or head into eastern NY, or even slide down into SW MA if needed. Great thing too is with it being Tuesday traffic should be minimal. i'm just thinking you might have a timing problem if you are too far east. getting to albany opens up i-90 e/w, i-88 sw/ne and i-87 for you n/s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 9z SPC SREF...doesn't show much love for CT but for areas out west it looks nice. There is an outflow boundary pushing south. That may be a focus for storms that the SREF doesn't model right now. Could see another line from across PA and ctrl NY along the cold front perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I am so pissed my cell phone is broken. I literally bought that phone just for days like today...had 3G internet so we could get radar on the go, very good graphics so I could see the radar clearly, and I could post here from the car, and even better...I could take pics/video and upload them to the internet right away. Dude ..take it back and exchange it..WTF?You did buy insurance on it correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Fog rolled back in thick here. What tiny, tiny chance we had for storms is gone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 2 different worlds. Nice to be on the correct side of it Socked in here at work in Leominster... high tds, relatively low temps... pretty blah Fully expecting nothing much of interest for my area. Maybe some rain...a rumble of thunder Last night's itty bitty cell overperformed imho. 10 minutes of loud thunder and lightning and 0.2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Socked in here at work in Leominster... high tds, relatively low temps... pretty blah Fully expecting nothing much of interest for my area. Maybe some rain...a rumble of thunder Last night's itty bitty cell overperformed imho. 10 minutes of loud thunder and lightning and 0.2" of rain. That's an epic outbreak. Hopefully the storm chasers get what they're after today. Yesterday was one big dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 i'm just thinking you might have a timing problem if you are too far east. getting to albany opens up i-90 e/w, i-88 sw/ne and i-87 for you n/s. That's not a bad idea...b/c if we did have to jolt north and we were in central Berkshire county or so it would still probably take 45 minutes or so to get to that area and that's alot of wasted time. There is an outflow boundary pushing south. That may be a focus for storms that the SREF doesn't model right now. Could see another line from across PA and ctrl NY along the cold front perhaps. Yeah the models may not pick up on some of the smaller scale features. For example, the SPC SREF is meh on any tornado potential, however, it might not pick up the enhanced helicity in the vicinity of the warm front and such. Dude ..take it back and exchange it..WTF? You did buy insurance on it correct? Since it was a pay as you go phone you can't get insurance on those phones. Just a complete disaster. I can do a few things with it but I didn't pay my bill for this month so there was no use, I can however, use it to connect to wifi but it will be hard to read maps and text b/c everything is all scrambled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 You guys remember when today the medium range data at one point was indicating the potential for strong wind to move into the decaying EML? Today was so close to being a moderate risk day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Yeah the models may not pick up on some of the smaller scale features. For example, the SPC SREF is meh on any tornado potential, however, it might not pick up the enhanced helicity in the vicinity of the warm front and such. This is especially true of an ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Nasty, hot, and humid here, 80°F/70°F heading toward a high in the mid to upper 80s. Classic WNE warm sector day with hazy sun and light SW winds. Unlike yesterday, hopefully we'll have something to show for it. Not a whole lot of wind shear, but with ample CAPE, hopefully we'll get some 50K footers with strobe lightning and hail. These high CAPE, low shear environments lead to these pulsers which are very hard to forecast as they tend to follow outflow boundaries and pop up and die quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The West is the Best (for today at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 cool. Missed a 100mph macroburst by 30 min too. There was one in Weymouth in 2004. Leveled our neighborhood where we were living at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 You guys remember when today the medium range data at one point was indicating the potential for strong wind to move into the decaying EML? Today was so close to being a moderate risk day. mid-level lapse rates have steepened back up across northern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Storms should have no problem firing along a low amplitude surface shortwave currently over central new york. You can already see some cumulus forming along this boundary on vis. The HRRR was also showing some enhanced helicity in the Mohawk valley that could aid the development of some supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Nasty, hot, and humid here, 80°F/70°F heading toward a high in the mid to upper 80s. Classic WNE warm sector day with hazy sun and light SW winds. Unlike yesterday, hopefully we'll have something to show for it. Not a whole lot of wind shear, but with ample CAPE, hopefully we'll get some 50K footers with strobe lightning and hail. These high CAPE, low shear environments lead to these pulsers which are very hard to forecast as they tend to follow outflow boundaries and pop up and die quickly. Yup--up to 74.4/70 here. I thought I might make it through May without hitting 80.0. Wit the bright sun today and already as hot as it is, I think that will go down. Alas. Nice breeze on the deck though. Outside office, ftw. In the spirit of topic-specific threads, I think we should start a new one that deals with recommendations for where Wiz should set up camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Holy crap, it's already 84 with a dewpoint of 74!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 We're aiming to leave as soon as the new day 1 outlook comes out. Going to take a shower and get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Holy crap, it's already 84 with a dewpoint of 74!! Man--that is awful! We're aiming to leave as soon as the new day 1 outlook comes out. Going to take a shower and get ready. Paul--read above. You don't need a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Man--that is awful! walked outside with the dog and I was like "nope! We're going back in!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 87F and DP 75F out here, looks to be pretty much the same through western Litchfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Storms should have no problem firing along a low amplitude surface shortwave currently over central new york. You can already see some cumulus forming along this boundary on vis. The HRRR was also showing some enhanced helicity in the Mohawk valley that could aid the development of some supercells. Yeah...looks like some stuff trying to get going just SE of BUF. And of course...that stuff back in NE Ohio looks healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Also...could tell from the get-go this morning temps were likely to bust low here in ALB. I think original forecast was 85-86...but we were 75 degrees at 7am with nothing but sun until mid-afternoon. NWS now saying 88...I think 90 is doable. At 85 as of 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Man--I still need to go running. Didn't plan to go until noon. Might have to break out earlier. 75.1/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Should we be looking at sustained storms that progress E-W or will these be stationary cells that form as the front progresses? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 gotta love the lake shadow on the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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