weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Good luck today. These were the probabilities we thought we would see for yesterday. I would head to anywhere you know localized pressure falls will locally back the winds underneath moderate low-mid level speed shear. Thanks! I'm a little surprised to see the 5% probs down this way, the 3z SPC SREF really wasn't eye opening nor were the 0z runs. Maybe the 6z runs showed something? I'm also wondering if perhaps the full sun here leading to large amounts of instability will really compensate for lack of stronger shear down here which could slightly enhance the potential for supercells here. I mean even know 0-6km shear will only be around 30 knots here, there could be enhanced backed llvl flow with the warm front nearby. Also, yesterday we dealt with 925/850 winds being mainly from the NWthrough the entire day while today winds there are more WSW and with sfc winds from the south so this alone could lead to larger amounts of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 When will be our turn in eastern mass? This sucks. Congats to the western Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 still socked in with cloud cover here...hoping it burns off soon...all action still in NNE...guess we will see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I think the position of the upper level jet streak and divergence could help out SW NY/and Northern NJ for organization and coverage. Perhaps that's why the SPC went 30%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'm kind of glad we don't have to go too far. The gas gauge on my friend's car doesn't work but he has about between a quarter tank and half a tank he believes and my I don't get a pay check until around 4:30 today and have just under $40 which will be plenty. It only takes about a quarter of a tank to get from where he lives in NH to get here. We'll probably maybe leave around 11 AM or so and just go to a library and setup there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'll give the meso models props last night for those storms in NNE. But, it followed the basic principles that we talked about last evening. You need something to focus the lift...an increasing LLJ pumping in warm and humid air. Aloft, you need something to help with the lift. You only need a slight perturbation to put things in motion when you have so much instability, and that's what NNE had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SW Vermont will be tricky because the Taconics can obstruct the views to the west. A couple of spots around Bennington might work - just over the border on NY Route 7 is pretty open with low hills. Yeah that area can be difficult. Luckily my friend knows it pretty well and knows of some great spots where you can see off to the west and such to get great views of structures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I really wouldn't lose much hope north of I-80 if that's where you'll be. I could see some good ones there. We'll see. He lives near Trenton He said he'll be up north in the evening. Going to be tough down by TTN for sure, but they'll be around even there. In fact, all models have QPF down there. Yeah this evening, by luck, I will actually be in NW NJ. All guidance does bring thunderstorms across the coastal plain of the Mid Atlantic tonight so I don't doubt the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I think the position of the upper level jet streak and divergence could help out SW NY/and Northern NJ for organization and coverage. Perhaps that's why the SPC went 30%? I think they were thinking big CAPE which could help out. I honestly don't see a big bust in those areas you outlined, but maybe I'm wrong. I've seen plenty of times when shear was 20-30kts but CAPE through the roof allowed for good storms. But, if lapse rates really start to suck late day...they could not be all that robust. Maybe it's just my point of view since anything with lightning is severe around these parts..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Yeah this evening, by luck, I will actually be in NW NJ. All guidance does bring thunderstorms across the coastal plain of the Mid Atlantic tonight so I don't doubt the QPF. Well good luck man. I know you do appreciate severe. Around here...I just appreciate a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Here's the 0z WRF 20z 22z 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I looked at that too, Paul. It looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I think they were thinking big CAPE which could help out. I honestly don't see a big bust in those areas you outlined, but maybe I'm wrong. I've seen plenty of times when shear was 20-30kts but CAPE through the roof allowed for good storms. But, if lapse rates really start to suck late day...they could not be all that robust. Maybe it's just my point of view since anything with lightning is severe around these parts..lol. Big CAPE, high moisture and a front usually bring sporadic damaging wind gusts to the area from a climatological standpoint. The 30% risks are understandable for N NJ / N PA. There is a bit of wind shear too across interior PA so organization is likely, especially with the pressure trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Not much in the way of 7 C/KM mid-level lapse rates anymore, however, still very decent at around 6.5 C/KM. 7-7 C/KM would be awesome but 6.5 C/KM is sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Im liking my spot for this.. I agree with kevin on CEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Well good luck man. I know you do appreciate severe. Around here...I just appreciate a thunderstorm. This spring / summer, I will be grateful for lightning bolts. I did get a nice display of mammatus over the weekend and a couple of good tstorms out of this pattern, so I am content. I, like you, understand where we live so my expectations will remain low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I looked at that too, Paul. It looks fine to me. I will certainly take that. I'm sure the KFS simulated radar has multiple long-tacked supercells moving thorugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 This spring / summer, I will be grateful for lightning bolts. I did get a nice display of mammatus over the weekend and a couple of good tstorms out of this pattern, so I am content. I, like you, understand where we live so my expectations will remain low. Your area is like OK compared to BOS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Well i am western areas. I'm on the eastern side of western SNE LOL--this is the same guy who was telling me I live in Central Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 If I were Wiz I would use CEF has a staging area. I don't think you'll need to go too far from there for prime spots..in any direction Good call. He can go the Holyoke Mall--right at the junture of the Pike and I-91. He can hang out in the food court with his laptop and bolt out in whatever direction seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Im liking my spot for this.. I agree with kevin on CEF It's a good spot because of the valley effect with these types of setups,, but also because they can drive in any direction in a relatively short amt of time and get to where they need to be. However, I certainly wouldn't be setting up shop in a public library lol. It's 2012..not 1912 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Your area is like OK compared to BOS..lol. True true... lol. The last few years I think I have just been lucky being in the right place at the right time to see a wall cloud. Last year I saw two wall clouds in 1 week, which for this area is downright ridiculous. One storm had a tornado warning while the other just had that enhanced severe warning statement about weak rotation. That was in June between the 22nd-25th I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 still socked in with cloud cover here...hoping it burns off soon...all action still in NNE...guess we will see what happens Sun's just broken out here, Diane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 True true... lol. The last few years I think I have just been lucky being in the right place at the right time to see a wall cloud. Last year I saw two wall clouds in 1 week, which for this area is downright ridiculous. One storm had a tornado warning while the other just had that enhanced severe warning statement about weak rotation. That was in June between the 22nd-25th I think. The closest I was to a tornado was the July 1989 outbreak where a tornado went through the city I grew up in..Brockton. It was weak, but at the age of 11...I didn't know any better...just that the sky was green from the hail. I haven't seen anything like a wall cloud, but I did see 2" hail which was pretty cool. Missed a 100mph macroburst by 30 min too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 given the upper level divergence and moisture pooling...I'm think that the outflow boundary stretching form near DSV through JHW into eastern Ohio might be where storms fire in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 given the upper level divergence and moisture pooling...I'm think that the outflow boundary stretching form near DSV through JHW into eastern Ohio might be where storms fire in the next few hours. Yep: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1205291349.acus11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The closest I was to a tornado was the July 1989 outbreak where a tornado went through the city I grew up in..Brockton. It was weak, but at the age of 11...I didn't know any better...just that the sky was green from the hail. I haven't seen anything like a wall cloud, but I did see 2" hail which was pretty cool. Missed a 100mph macroburst by 30 min too. I have a similar story to a degree. I had a tornado pass through my neighborhood on July 31, 1992. It was rated an F1. On a funny note, I managed to be in one of the only locations where the Labor Day Derecho decided to break apart! That was wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 i would think Wiz would want to be out in NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 i would think Wiz would want to be out in NYS This is why probably going somewhere in like central Berkshire county is good to start off...easy access to get into southern VT if needed, or head into eastern NY, or even slide down into SW MA if needed. Great thing too is with it being Tuesday traffic should be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 That front is stuck right near ORH right now on visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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