ski MRG Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 66 with rain and frequent downpours, Sure looks like we should be seeing lightning and hearing thunder but not even a distant rumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I think Tuesday is the best day out of any for severe. Seems like overnight storms possible than cold fropa storms late day. The H5 pattern is not all that different from some of our good events in the northeast. As usual, we wait to see how it can be mucked up, but looks interesting. By Tuesday looks like any EML is pretty much weakened, although if you take a look at those instability numbers you would probably think we have an EML, however, the GFS is going bonkers with those dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Hvy Hvy shower now with Hvy sunlight and heavier rainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 By Tuesday looks like any EML is pretty much weakened, although if you take a look at those instability numbers you would probably think we have an EML, however, the GFS is going bonkers with those dewpoints. I didnt even look at the GFS nor am I looking for an EML per se since they are rare. Just the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I didnt even look at the GFS nor am I looking for an EML per se since they are rare. Just the overall pattern. That pattern though does favor potential for EML advection into the Northeast. Yes though, just the overall pattern is quite favorable for t'storms and severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Talk about diurnal driven convection, poof just like that they are gone. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 where are you getting 12z gfs images? NCEP and Raleigh wx haven't updated yet. Oh sorry. We get them quickly in house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 If that WF can stall over SNE Monday...could be very interesting if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Shear in terms of velocity isn't great, but everything else is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Are today and tomorrow similiar to yesterday in terms of convection? Looks like maybe a little less today and a little more tomorrow.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Are today and tomorrow similiar to yesterday in terms of convection? Looks like maybe a little less today and a little more tomorrow.?? Both days aren't all that great. Tomorrow looks better NW. Today the ULL is moving overhead but with SE winds..might be more Berks and Litchfield hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Svr threat right now looks kind of meh for the weekend. GFS starts getting interesting mid to late week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Svr threat right now looks kind of meh for the weekend. GFS starts getting interesting mid to late week though. Agreed...I think this weekend is pretty much shot, however, Monday/Tuesday timeframe is quite intriguing then have to watch a few more days down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Svr threat right now looks kind of meh for the weekend. GFS starts getting interesting mid to late week though. Agreed...I think this weekend is pretty much shot, however, Monday/Tuesday timeframe is quite intriguing then have to watch a few more days down the road. Yeah this weekend was always iffy as Paul pointed out. The key, especially Sunday, will not only be the moisture return but any vorticity induced by the convection in the mid-section of the country. Some of the spectrals are developing a notable vort max that rides along the periphery of the ridge, initiating a big t-storm day for the Northeast (more NY-PA than New England). There is also the issue of any tropical system off the Southeast Coast and how that may affect the placement of the mid level features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 My friend comes down from NH Monday for two weeks for us to chase PERFECT TIMING I told him to get down here as early as possible Monday morning just in case we have a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 that slow-moving cut-off low kinda sucks...I wish it were more of an open wave and more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Man...not much consistency within the models the past few days...at least there is some consistency with the synoptic pattern at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wasn't about a year ago this month where we had those non moving Tstorms near Belchertown Mass. Looks similar today. I see now Ginxy Don't remember that event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Wasn't about a year ago this month where we had those non moving Tstorms near Belchertown Mass. Looks similar today. I see now Ginxy Don't remember that event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 NAM brings svr threat back to CT Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I would expect a svr threat b/c I am working on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Just had thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 GFS says no-go Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 NAM brings svr threat back to CT Saturday. Paul, we had an unusual complex of severe thunderstorms (pulse-multicellular) move from the Southeast to the Northwest yesterday across the Delaware Valley: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=LSR&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 A notable gradient developed in areas where the sun came out strongly (S NJ shot into the 80s) along with good upslope/moisture advection and vort to the east moving due north. While the old boundary on Saturday could certainly be interesting, I am still liking the idea for something to drop down around the ridge on Sunday. The EML advection + enhanced jet winds from encroaching ridge axis could provide an MCS potential maybe. We'll see. A lot has to do with what happens to our West first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Paul, we had an unusual complex of severe thunderstorms (pulse-multicellular) move from the Southeast to the Northwest yesterday across the Delaware Valley: http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=0 A notable gradient developed in areas where the sun came out strongly (S NJ shot into the 80s) along with good upslope/moisture advection and vort to the east moving due north. While the old boundary on Saturday could certainly be interesting, I am still liking the idea for something to drop down around the ridge on Sunday. The EML advection + enhanced jet winds from encroaching ridge axis could provide an MCS potential maybe. We'll see. A lot has to do with what happens to our West first. I thought early next week (maybe Monday night) offered a chance of an over the top type system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 I thought early next week (maybe Monday night) offered a chance of an over the top type system as well. It does and maybe for you it is a better setup than Sunday. For the Mid Atlantic, the ridge may become too strong to allow for anything organized but that depends on how exactly this all plays out (future tropical system and Midwest Convection make this forecast difficult). The EML strongly advects in on Monday so anything that gets the parcels rising will be free to the tropopause (and beyond---). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 It does and maybe for you it is a better setup than Sunday. For the Mid Atlantic, the ridge may become too strong to allow for anything organized but that depends on how exactly this all plays out (future tropical system and Midwest Convection make this forecast difficult). The EML strongly advects in on Monday so anything that gets the parcels rising will be free to the tropopause (and beyond---). any thoughts on the Tuesday shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 any thoughts on the Tuesday shortwave? My worry is that next week the -NAO slows the flow down so much that all the waves do is close off and slow down. The ECMWF and ensembles are definitely slower and more closed off with Monday-Tuesday's wave. While the HPC took a blend with the faster GFS, I could see the ECMWF being more correct in the end with this ridiculous -NAO coming. A delayed arrival and closing off nature would likely reduce the severe weather chances and displace the winds and frontal boundaries. Then, the following wave later in the week could get interesting as well but my worry with that one is that it ends up being more of a stratiform / coastal low type instead of warming sectoring. And that ridiculous tropical cyclone is going to player right through next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 My worry is that next week the -NAO slows the flow down so much that all the waves do is close off and slow down. The ECMWF and ensembles are definitely slower and more closed off with Monday-Tuesday's wave. While the HPC took a blend with the faster GFS, I could see the ECMWF being more correct in the end with this ridiculous -NAO coming. A delayed arrival and closing off nature would likely reduce the severe weather chances and displace the winds and frontal boundaries. Then, the following wave later in the week could get interesting as well but my worry with that one is that it ends up being more of a stratiform / coastal low type instead of warming sectoring. And that ridiculous tropical cyclone is going to player right through next week. Yeah I was talking to Paul about that last night. It blocks everything up so much that the shortwave basically comes out of the plains in two pieces. The GFS completely loses the EML before the front gets to BUF on Tuesday...I'd imagine it's similar for other locations in the NE...shear doesn't really run over the warm sector all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 Yeah I was talking to Paul about that last night. It blocks everything up so much that the shortwave basically comes out of the plains in two pieces. The GFS completely loses the EML before the front gets to BUF on Tuesday...I'd imagine it's similar for other locations in the NE...shear doesn't really run over the warm sector all that much. Things could still get very ugly west and along the Appalachians if things get very slow from blocking. In fact, the 6z GFS paints an alarming picture for the Mississippi to Ohio Valleys later next week. I love the veering profiles and EML for Sunday-Monday. Anything that comes over the ridge will certainly have a nice environment for sustainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.