SNE Convective/Thunder thread

[baroclinic_instability]

That's why you should not spend time getting excited about it. If it happens...great, but more often than not...it's a disappointment.

I can't imagine it is fun. The few times I have tried to forecast severe up there, with the crazy but low enough complex terrain, I have failed miserably. East coast severe generally baffles me, especially since I am used to plains. Does Oceanstwx post much here regarding severe?

[TalcottWx]

Humour post earlier about the cap staying put came to fruition

[CoastalWx]

I can't imagine it is fun. The few times I have tried to forecast severe up there, with the crazy but low enough complex terrain, I have failed miserably. East coast severe generally baffles me, especially since I am used to plains. Does Oceanstwx post much there regarding severe?

Yeah he posted this morning actually.

It's not an easy thing to do. More often than not, we get the lousy crappy 5.5 to 6C/KM lapse rates which may be accompanied by some strong winds or hail if shear is present...but often times, it ends up being NBD really. A good s/w coming in with strong dynamics will help out the interior like NY state and NNE, but by the time any pre frontal trough or even cold front moves into SNE..the marine layer kills it after we lose the heating of the sun. So you have to worry about frontal timing too. In this case, we are lacking a decent s/w and good LLJ to really get the lift going over the WF and really get those updrafts into the mid levels. However, I think NNE may see more storms fire near or after 06z. Maybe they can slip south. We'll see I guess.

[CoastalWx]

The stuff over NNE right now is cellular in nature, but may congeal more in a few hours.

[CoastalWx]

You know how much easier that is said than done

When you grow up and watched squall line after squall line crap the bed east of the ct river...you become numb to it. I'll be out in the Plains one of these years for true severe convection. I don't necessarily mean tornadoes either. Just the structure of these beasts thanks to the shear and big CAPE is something to see.

[weatherwiz]

I need to go to bed soon...slept about 4 hours the last 3 days and I think we will go to upstate NY tomorrow so we'll have to leave by 9:30 AM...right after the new day 1 comes out

[Met1985]

What do yall think about the setup at the end of the week up here. They are starting to get pretty concerned down here for a sever outbreak maybe occuring.

[free_man]

Hoping that little speck gets going SE of RUT

[CoastalWx]

Wednesday maybe for ern areas?

[weatherwiz]

What do yall think about the setup at the end of the week up here. They are starting to get pretty concerned down here for a sever outbreak maybe occuring.

That setup is much more favorable for you guys down there, however, up here in New England that's a terrible setup for severe wx unfortunately.

[#NoPoles]

When you grow up and watched squall line after squall line crap the bed east of the ct river...you become numb to it. I'll be out in the Plains one of these years for true severe convection. I don't necessarily mean tornadoes either. Just the structure of these beasts thanks to the shear and big CAPE is something to see.

i know that pain...except i never went numb

[Met1985]

That setup is much more favorable for you guys down there, however, up here in New England that's a terrible setup for severe wx unfortunately.

Really, wow would not have thought that but the weather up here is so much different when it comes to just about everything. Really cool seeing how things setup and evolve up here especially with the winter storms. Ya i quess to get severe up here it takes an act of congress.

[free_man]

S/C VT starting to pop.

[weatherwiz]

Really, wow would not have thought that but the weather up here is so much different when it comes to just about everything. Really cool seeing how things setup and evolve up here especially with the winter storms. Ya i quess to get severe up here it takes an act of congress.

That setup gives us a screaming southerly flow through the entire column which completely contaminates us with marine air and lots and lots of clouds. We also get pretty crappy mid-level lapse rates. It's tough to develop any appreciable instability like this.

[Met1985]

That setup gives us a screaming southerly flow through the entire column which completely contaminates us with marine air and lots and lots of clouds. We also get pretty crappy mid-level lapse rates. It's tough to develop any appreciable instability like this.

Ya i am learning that if you have a southerly flow for yall then that is bad when wanting to get storms to pop. Complete opposite of us.

[weatherwiz]

Ya i am learning that if you have a southerly flow for yall then that is bad when wanting to get storms to pop. Complete opposite of us.

This is why we want a pattern similar to what we have now...strong 700/500mb ridging placing us on the prosperity of the ridge giving us a westerly to northwesterly mid tropospheric flow where the stronger shear exists...this also allows potential for EML's to work into the region. Unfortunately this go around we are lacking a deepening trough to our west along with a strong s/w energy to give us sufficient lift along with a strong low-level jet.

[#NoPoles]

dang it...and i coffeed up so i could go out and drive around but all the action is too far away...so now i just have to sit here and wait for the coffee to wear off

[CoastalWx]

S/C VT starting to pop.

Yeah keep an eye on that stuff. That's the area to watch.

[Met1985]

This is why we want a pattern similar to what we have now...strong 700/500mb ridging placing us on the prosperity of the ridge giving us a westerly to northwesterly mid tropospheric flow where the stronger shear exists...this also allows potential for EML's to work into the region. Unfortunately this go around we are lacking a deepening trough to our west along with a strong s/w energy to give us sufficient lift along with a strong low-level jet.

Ya that sucks if you are wanting severe storms to pop. Thanks for the info Wiz. Good luck in getting a few nice cells going this week. You can come down my way and help at the end of the week. Looks like we may be in for a pretty good storm coming in for this time of the year.

[weatherwiz]

Ya that sucks if you are wanting severe storms to pop. Thanks for the info Wiz. Good luck in getting a few nice cells going this week. You can come down my way and help at the end of the week. Looks like we may be in for a pretty good storm coming in for this time of the year.

No problem!

Tomorrow looks pretty decent up north so hopefully we can get into something good. One thing I really want to watch for is to see how quickly the EML erodes...sometimes models don't handle that too well so if it ends up holding longer that could significantly increase the threat up that way and it's already looking good.

I haven't looked a whole lot into down there but from what I did see I was pretty impressed, that's a pretty potent system for this time of year, something you typically see in the fall months. Very strong sfc low with great moisture return and shear...instability should be very good as well. Wouldn't shock me if SPC introduces Day 4 risk area down there.

[OSUmetstud]

lol @ MLCAPE of 2500 in WNY at 11pm.

[weatherwiz]

lol @ MLCAPE of 2500 in WNY at 11pm.

and the LI's of -9C to -10C

[wxsniss]

tough day for severe enthusiasts in New England

CoastalWx: I agree, having just returned from one, a chase trip to the plains fundamentally changes one's appreciation of supercell anatomy... that kind of beast is phenomenal and we're lucky if we get that kind of structure a handful of times a year in all of New England

for SNEers, as a consolation for a disappointing day, i go back and read this thread several times:

http://www.americanw...tial-wednesday/

...0-3km EHI into 6's

...initiation by 11am

...35 kts 0-6 km bulk shear

...200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH

...5000+ j/kg SBCAPE

...posts by tornadotony, andyhb, baroclinic_instability, jomo, amped, brettjrob, and other severe plains regulars in our own SNE forum

it was all there and just unreal... probably a once or twice in a lifetime event

[#NoPoles]

lol @ MLCAPE of 2500 in WNY at 11pm.

and the LI's of -9C to -10C

everyone should aim their leafblowers skyward and see if we can't create some lift!

[TalcottWx]

Looks to me obviously a west of ORH deal again. More definite initiation tomorrow. a pretty average event by sne standards that will likely feature some reports.

[Met1985]

Looks like storms are starting to pop up pretty good right now. May see some go severe. Nothing yet though.

[weatherwiz]

Well time to get some sleep...need to get some rest, especially if going to upstate NY in the AM. I'll probably end up waking up around 3-4 AM.

[OSUmetstud]

kinda nuts...BUF just went from 78 at 11pm to 81 at midnight. I don't think I've seen that before without a real airmass change.

[Met1985]

Severe Thunderstorm warning for North Pomfret VT. Some nice looking cells firing up.

[Met1985]

Looks like a pretty good line of storms from Springfield up to Corinth VT. All those cells have Severe thunderstorm warnings with them.