ct_yankee Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'm skeptical about the delayed initiation scenario. What's the trigger? We just saw a remnant MCS/frontal/seabreeze interaction and a single tiny cell popped and then immediately died. I think that may have been our best shot for initiation, and it wasn't enough. There's no SW or any real forcing for ascent progged to move in... And visible satellite shows cu field evaporating... I dunno, I hope I'm wrong but I'm beginning to smell bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Still some weak cap present and until that erodes not much can happen...a storm tried to pop but just didn't have enough to break through. Need to wait for those height falls later tonight or for that disturbance to work into the region...we really may not see anything until overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Sweltering here in the Monadnocks....81.3F with mostly sunny skies. Don't see any cumulus out there yet but definitely a bit hazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'm skeptical about the delayed initiation scenario. What's the trigger? We just saw a remnant MCS/frontal/seabreeze interaction and a single tiny cell popped and then immediately died. I think that may have been our best shot for initiation, and it wasn't enough. There's no SW or any real forcing for ascent progged to move in... And visible satellite shows cu field evaporating... I dunno, I hope I'm wrong but I'm beginning to smell bust. Well this wasn't supposed to be anything close to a widespread outbreak. Just that any cells that do form have te potential to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'm skeptical about the delayed initiation scenario. What's the trigger? We just saw a remnant MCS/frontal/seabreeze interaction and a single tiny cell popped and then immediately died. I think that may have been our best shot for initiation, and it wasn't enough. There's no SW or any real forcing for ascent progged to move in... And visible satellite shows cu field evaporating... I dunno, I hope I'm wrong but I'm beginning to smell bust. It's only 4pm and with the elevated mixed layer and microscale nuances, way too early to call. But yeah, for this afternoon and even maybe this evening, not much to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Seeing some CU developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Going up kind of quickly and a few getting vertical growth...off to the W/SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Where weatherwiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Those steeper lapse rates are now working back into western portions of SNE and vertical shear has increased to 35-40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Well this wasn't supposed to be anything close to a widespread outbreak. Just that any cells that do form have te potential to go to town. Agreed. But I'm losing hope for any daytime convection at all. And also we don't seem to be getting the good helicity that some models were predicting by now. Currently shear seems to be lacking here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Where weatherwiz? to my w/sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I'm skeptical about the delayed initiation scenario. What's the trigger? We just saw a remnant MCS/frontal/seabreeze interaction and a single tiny cell popped and then immediately died. I think that may have been our best shot for initiation, and it wasn't enough. There's no SW or any real forcing for ascent progged to move in... And visible satellite shows cu field evaporating... I dunno, I hope I'm wrong but I'm beginning to smell bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Agreed. But I'm losing hope for any daytime convection at all. And also we don't seem to be getting the good helicity that some models were predicting by now. Currently shear seems to be lacking here in CT. Storms can easily last through the night if they form upstream so give it a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 CU outside my window is getting big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Top of it now falling apart...still must have a cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Huge sea breeze kicked in here. Just killed any chance we had. Went from 78 to 72 in fifteen minutes. Down to 67 at the beach. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Huge sea breeze kicked in here. Just killed any chance we had. Went from 78 to 72 in fifteen minutes. Down to 67 at the beach. Boom. Welcome to my wonderful world of no severe weather through late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Those CU must be developing along the sea breeze boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Seems like there a couple opposing opinions out there as to whether things will develop. Here's an imby question. As I'm reading western MA/CT, are we really talking SW Mass? Since there's no reference to VT, I'm not sure if the comments are just focusing on the SNE aspect of the threat or if NW zones are going to be fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah, I probably deserved that stupid icon - my first on this board, where it seems to be awarded quite frequently. Edit: erasing bit about latest SPC outlook, which I read quickly and wrongly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Welcome to my wonderful world of no severe weather through late August. Trust me. I've lived here for 15 years. It blows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Was just looking at satellite....was pretty cool to see when the clouds from the remnant MCS met with the sea-breeze working north through CT that cell popped near New Britain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Trust me. I've lived here for 15 years. It blows lol I wish I was in Kansas or Oklahoma, or one of those states that gets creamed with severe Wx in the summer Then I'd like to be in the snow belts of NY in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 lol I see the SPC dropped the tor prob completely. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 lol I see the SPC dropped the tor prob completely. Oh well Lol. Well thT was exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Dead. Not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Come on guys. This wasn't an OK style outbreak lol. I think we'll see some stuff overnight somewhere in SNE. With the EML, could be some strobe light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Come on guys. This wasn't an OK style outbreak lol. I think we'll see some stuff overnight somewhere in SNE. With the EML, could be some strobe light stuff. Yup exactly. There were issues all along with this. No surprise it's not panning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yup exactly. There were issues all along with this. No surprise it's not panning out. thoughts for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 It is a good sign, more primed atmosphere for later 6z-12z activity , if possible, up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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