TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 CI- Convective Initiation, right? Or Convective Inhibitation? CI is convective initiation Convective inhibition is usually regarded as CINH or CIN or putrid marine layer as ray might say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The reason I posted that is to point out that what they are saying exactly, is that a watch is unlikely at this time, not that a watch won't be issued at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Is it rotating???????????? If you spin around really fast then look at it it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 After analyzing several sites (and I mentioned this earlier re KBAF my self...) is the same thing they are saying here: ...THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING AND SUPPORTING MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT A WARM LAYER AT 700 MB THAT MAY BE SUPPRESSING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. Warm front is probably causal in that it's overlapping warm sector air. I think however just S of that stationary/warm boundary has a shot, where there is less overrunning, SRH is still on the high side, and anything manages to trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If you spin around really fast then look at it it is. Or if you had a "Wiz meal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Or if you had a "Wiz meal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 NAM and RR look excellent over E NY into W MA later on. And delaying CI for now is even more favorable for storms in discrete mode coinciding with the most effective instability and shear. I would say I really like this scenario for a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 NAM and RR look excellent over E NY into W MA later on. And delaying CI for now is even more favorable for storms in discrete mode coinciding with the most effective instability and shear. I would say I really like this scenario for a tornado or two. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 NAM and RR look excellent over E NY into W MA later on. And delaying CI for now is even more favorable for storms in discrete mode coinciding with the most effective instability and shear. I would say I really like this scenario for a tornado or two. Limited to those areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Are we looking for a line to develop, or just some cells popping here and there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good post, Sam. Plus we still are advecting some stronger llvl moisture into the region as well with near 20C dews at 925mb and about 10C dews at 850mb trying to move into the region. I would really like to see those 850 dews closer to 12-13C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Limited to those areas? That for the primary tor threat. N CT is in a decent place too. The trick is for intersecting the unstable sector, strong low to mid level helicity, and the strongest WAA forcing for ascent around 850-700mb. That forcing will be mainly north of CT later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Trying to use the PSU site to look at 17z RAP bufkit, however, when you open up bufkit there is no option for RAP and I tried to click on RUC but nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Limited to those areas? You're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 NAM and RR look excellent over E NY into W MA later on. And delaying CI for now is even more favorable for storms in discrete mode coinciding with the most effective instability and shear. I would say I really like this scenario for a tornado or two. I've liked that area all along. Hopefully some fun later on. Would think it easily spreads into nrn ct IF.....IF it does form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Helicity is really starting to increase north of CT and we continue to destabilize even further! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 i like my area wiz are you going to bdl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I've liked that area all along. Hopefully some fun later on. Would think it easily spreads into nrn ct IF.....IF it does form. Yeah, that's definitely an important caveat at the end there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 wxwatcher: Does the ENY include SENY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 i like my area wiz are you going to bdl? If any good storms head towards there...yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 no watches yet..do you think they are coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If any good storms head towards there...yes. Meet ya there if theyre gonna get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Meet ya there if theyre gonna get slammed We'll be at that McDonalds across the airport with that space ship on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 We'll be at that McDonalds across the airport with that space ship on it. BDL was my staging area before I nabbed the Springfield tor last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 wxwatcher: Does the ENY include SENY? depends on the timing of CI for SENY. Earlier the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 NAM and RR look excellent over E NY into W MA later on. And delaying CI for now is even more favorable for storms in discrete mode coinciding with the most effective instability and shear. I would say I really like this scenario for a tornado or two. hey, you look good in red are you serious about the possibility of tornadoes, today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah, that's definitely an important caveat at the end there LOL well just saying that I don't see much of a reason for them to weaken if they do fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 hey, you look good in red are you serious about the possibility of tornadoes, today? haha thaaanks. Yeah, you know, maybe one good ol' New England-style EF0. Get two, it's an outbreak. ... again IF we get enough forcing for storms to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 MattNoyesNECN (Matt Noyes) I'm watching a disturbance north of Lake Ontario that will dive SE late eve/night. Chance thunder by 8-9PM western NewEng. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Dont forget that even if only a few cells fire late today, the threat for good storms goes into the night as storms upstream may form and environment remains unstable aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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