ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 There has been nicely sustained moisture convergence in that area for at least the past few hours. Light east northeasterly winds at Ithaca post-MCS and southwesterly southwest of that boundary. Nice theta-e ridge building into the area too. I hope we get something to form soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Nice to see ridging destroy the convective debris clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 TCU producing a shower in central CT - ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Nicely defined seabreeze boundary on satellite along the CT and RI shore... Virtually no cu south of that line, but the sat animation shows growing agitation right on it in places. Unfortunately, if a storm did fire there it would only move immediately into the more stable marine air. What we need is for a storm to initiate up north and then move down this way... Edit: maybe that little blip in central CT is far enough inland to do the trick. Would be perfectly placed for me, if it does develop into anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 TCU producing a shower in central CT - ftw! I can hear the thunder in that thing....a few miles ENE of it.....nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 looks like something is trying to pop to the west of here looking at the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Some convection building near Towanada, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Saw lightning and thunder!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 Saw lightning and thunder!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Sky 100% covered by clouds now ftl, sun's still coming through though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Saw lightning and thunder!!!!!!!! what does thunder look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 You'd probably like to see better parameters upstream of CT...like Western MA/ENY/VT. There's such a small corridor of favorable parameters over central/westernl CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Meant to say heard thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 decent lake breeze today...83 at BUF...91 in DSV...the BDL of west/central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 You can get vis sat here. CU field in portions of PA. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16# Other Parameters: Cape:2500+ in S NY and SW CT. LI: -5+ in a good portion of CT,NY, and -9+ in alotof PA. CrBr: 30+ in areas of S NY, and central PA and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Screamin bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Still somewhat capped off but it's certainly weakening as we are seeing major CU development...if that can be broken through watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Still somewhat capped off but it's certainly weakening as we are seeing major CU development...if that can be broken through watch out! Oh yeah dude shootin for the strat if that's the case id just like to see something going on to the n/nw of here not pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 New MCD says watch unlikely with only 20% probs of a watch being issued. I think I would consider a watch...I know there are major questions with regards to initiation but the thing is if something does pop and get going it's going to happen very quickly. However, people should be well aware of the potential today so it's probably not extremely important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 When convective initiation becomes more certain then a watch makes sense. I agree with SPC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 New MCD says watch unlikely with only 20% probs of a watch being issued. I think I would consider a watch...I know there are major questions with regards to initiation but the thing is if something does pop and get going it's going to happen very quickly. However, people should be well aware of the potential today so it's probably not extremely important. coverage way too limited for a watch boundaries to be had out there looking at vis though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 When convective initiation becomes more certain then a watch makes sense. I agree with SPC now. Yeah, if anything, watch is less likely than 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Pic of the cell that developed to my south..took this from the parking lot across the street from the mall...well my friend took it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 snoozer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah, if anything, watch is less likely than 6 hours ago. The initial time I was thinking was around 00z for severe so I don't think the game is over. Things get more favorable later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Strongest 0-3km SRH doesn't develop until later this evening into the unstable sector. E NY looks primed by 8pm. I'd rather delay CI for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Pic of the cell that developed to my south..took this from the parking lot across the street from the mall...well my friend took it Is it rotating???????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Mesoscale Discussion 939 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0939 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...LK ERIE SHORE...TWIN TIERS INTO SERN NY...NRN NJ...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 281825Z - 281930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...WITH THE DECAY OF THE EARLIER MCS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL SCENARIOS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE REMNANT MCS IN SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW MERGER OR LAKE BREEZE FARTHER W. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIATION...THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT IMMEDIATELY APPARENT...THOUGH TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY. DISCUSSION...ILL TIMING OF THE EARLIER MCS HAS LED TO ITS WEAKENING...NOW CLEARLY EVIDENT BY ITS APPEARANCE ON 1730Z SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BY A LACK OF LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE WEAK UPPER WAVE THAT INITIATED THE MCS...LIGHTNING IS NOW NOTED IN HARTFORD COUNTY CT. ALTHOUGH MESOANALYSIS REFLECTS AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS...THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING AND SUPPORTING MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT A WARM LAYER AT 700 MB THAT MAY BE SUPPRESSING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS ERODE THIS LAYER...OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTS IT IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR WHETHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP. HOWEVER...A SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT FROM NEW ENGLAND MAY ALSO PROVIDE ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. FARTHER W...A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER MCS IS MERGING WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS...WITH MORE RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION FROM SCHUYLER TO BRADFORD COUNTY. WITH THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE PROGRESSING AWAY FROM THE AREA...FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE NEXT SUBTLE FEATURE...OBSERVED ON 1730Z WV IMAGERY APPROACHING LK ONTARIO. THE BROADER UPPER RIDGE CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST WNWLYS ALOFT /PARTICULARLY ACROSS NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND/ MAY SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND WEAK SUPERCELLS. ..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 05/28/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... CLE... LAT...LON 42757870 42727703 42307506 41757337 41657264 41377233 40907362 40897485 41067610 41307764 41397841 41677997 41478072 41908064 42497923 42757870 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 CI- Convective Initiation, right? Or Convective Inhibitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I think short range stuff all pointed towards anything being later this evening from what I read. So any towel throw on the potential to have some storms still would be premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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