yoda Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 1630 OTLK talking about lack of stronger flow an shear up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Suns in and out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 did you leave yyet? Stayed in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Too bad for today ... looking around at obs this early afternoon I'd have to say no to convection for a large chunk of the area. Too much stablizing influence on the N side of this boundary, which is subtly detectable by temperature variation but even more so by dew points. 50-50DP N of PSF - PVD line ain't cutting it relative to the other dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Too bad for today ... looking around at obs this early afternoon I'd have to say no to convection for a large chunk of the area. Too much stablizing influence on the N side of this boundary, which is subtly detectable by temperature variation but even more so by dew points. 50-50DP N of PSF - PVD line ain't cutting it relative to the other dynamics. agreed best chance of storms actually looks closer to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Too bad for today ... looking around at obs this early afternoon I'd have to say no to convection for a large chunk of the area. Too much stablizing influence on the N side of this boundary, which is subtly detectable by temperature variation but even more so by dew points. 50-50DP N of PSF - PVD line ain't cutting it relative to the other dynamics. Yeah chance has shifted way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 agreed best chance of storms actually looks closer to NYC I don't think that far SW but ...SW is better. 67F -type DPs exist in CT and even SW Mass is probably sufficient to include those areas. Unless the boundary waffles up and gets better CAPE N of there, however, eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Yeah chance has shifted way south. Still feeling ok for here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Still probably a little too much CIN in the mixed-layer...does appear though that it's starting to erode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 dewpoint of 67 here cant hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 dewpoint of 67 here cant hurt 73 DP here near the NY/CT border, could cut the air with a dull knife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Regardless of what happens today... convective threat lingers into tonight/overnight I think given very strong cape above inversion after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Gee in fact ... I am noticing that there is higher surface pressures in Maine and New Hampshire than over the upper mid Atlantic region. As diurnal heating maximizes, it wouldn't surprise me if this boundary starts a-rollin' on backdoor like.. This is New England, so strike 1 on the 3 day thoughts isn't a surprise. The question is not how it could happen at any given time, it's what fresh hell will seemingly spontaneously emerge for the sole intent of preventing it - ahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Almost time for the ALY sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 higher 850/925 dews are still advecting in from the west...so I think the cap will erode somewhat as BL moisture increases. I always thought this was a western MA/western CT type thing, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 very bubbly in SW NY...cu field down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 higher 850/925 dews are still advecting in from the west...so I think the cap will erode somewhat as BL moisture increases. I always thought this was a western MA/western CT type thing, anyway. Yeah I never thought eastern areas were in the game so not a huge surprise though the boundary is definitely south of where it was modeled to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 higher 850/925 dews are still advecting in from the west...so I think the cap will erode somewhat as BL moisture increases. I always thought this was a western MA/western CT type thing, anyway. Agreed... As to areas N-E of the boundary, ...probably toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Meh. I did not get hugely invested...hopefully someone still gets lucky Some pieces look favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Welp mr Field, it will be interesting to see how all this pans out... Good opportunity for class room discussion: ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS INCLUDE CONNECTICUT...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ON RARE OCCASIONS CAN PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. $$ FIELD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Almost time for the ALY sounding It will be interesting to see what it shows. The spc meso analysis page would suggest that the area of storms in NY has eroded the EML or at least interupted its advection east. The best mid level lapse rates (7+) appear west of that area of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Good sign we're starting to see CU develop off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Ha! Monson Mass is in the cross-hairs with an SRH gift sitting right on top of them and a theta-e gradient being cooked by open skies - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 have a few starting to pop here also Good sign we're starting to see CU develop off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That sort of MCS remnant moving through southern NY in route to sw Mass and CT likely has a cool pocket of air associated that could serve as a trigger as the whole of if arrives over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, that feature could not be more perfectly wrong for it's time. It would move over and knock those areas out of contention, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I wonder if we actually see convective intiation in the Elmira area over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 30% contour inroduced in 1730 OTLK for tomorrow for NE NY and VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 30% contour inroduced in 1730 OTLK for tomorrow for NE NY and VT to clarify, for day 2, not day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I wonder if we actually see convective intiation in the Elmira area over the next few hours. There has been nicely sustained moisture convergence in that area for at least the past few hours. Light east northeasterly winds at Ithaca post-MCS and southwesterly southwest of that boundary. Nice theta-e ridge building into the area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Wow, I was bothering to actually look at the NAM bufkit Indices using the 12z input ... man, at 5pm over KBAF theres just this small slab of CIN around the 700mb level; if somehow a parcel were squeezed through that layer, there's nothing stopping 50,000 tropopause slammer. CAPEs are around 2,000 by 6pm, and Hel. isn't all that great. But that would be one of those deals where you see explosive CB growth if that cap gets punched by flow over hill tops or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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